Upb, evolution of Pnrr amplifies uncertainty
TheItalian economy is subject to risks on a macroeconomic scale, overall tilted to the downside. These variables are of an international nature, particularly the European cycle and the volatility of commodity markets. In Italy, however, the most significant factors of uncertainty concern the evolution of the Pnrr, for which the Government has recently proposed some modifications. This is the general picture that emerges from the note on the economic situation of August in which lThe Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB) has updated its forecasts. Here are the ratings for each specific area: GDP, work and wages, inflation.
GDP grows by +1% in 2023, +1.1% in 2024
The note forecasts growth of 1% in 2023, despite the setback in the second quarter (-0.3%) and 1.1% in 2024. Compared to what was estimated in the spring, on the occasion of the validation exercise of the 2023 Economic and Financial Document, we read, the PBO has revised it marginally (0.1 percentage points) rising expectations for growth this yearsince the positive surprise on the first quarter data prevails over the opposite sign on the following period.
The the forecast for 2024 has instead been revised downwards (by 0.3 percentage points), due to the deterioration of foreign demand and global financial conditions.
Upb, Labour: stronger market and growing wages
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On the labor front, the Upb points out that i winter months have been a source of strengthening for the Italian labor market. In the first quarter of the year, both hours worked increased (1.3 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2022), with a significant growth in industry, both in the number of employees (0.4 percent).
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