Artificial intelligence (AI) is unlikely to transform the US economy in the next decade, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman believes.
“Chat GPT and everything after that is probably economic history for the 2030s,” the economist writes in The New York Times.
Krugman recently predicted that Chat GPT could increase worker productivity by doing some tasks better than humans.
According to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, Chat GPT and its successors are unlikely to transform the US economy in the next decade. “Big language models in their current form should not have any impact on economic forecasts for the next year, and probably not much impact on economic forecasts for the next decade,” the veteran economist said in a commentary in the New York Times.
“Chat GPT and everything after is likely economic history for the 2030s, not the next few years,” Krugman writes. OpenAI’s chatbot has attracted the attention of investors since its launch in November last year. The hype has reignited interest in artificial intelligence (AI), giving stocks in the sector a huge boost. The share price of the US group Nvidia has risen by 83 percent since the beginning of 2023.
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Chat GPT has wowed the masses with its ability to churn out everything from dating tips to investment advice. But the application has also raised concerns that it could promote bias, discrimination and other harm to consumers, according to the Federal Trade Commission, which is responsible for consumer protection in the United States.
Krugman: Chat GPT can be “more efficient than humans”.
Krugman has previously discussed Chat GPT’s impact, stating that it may be able to do tasks like reporting and writing “more efficiently than humans.” In his most recent column, he adds that big language models like Chat GPT “will make the economy more productive, but will also likely hurt some workers whose skills have been devalued.”
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The Nobel Prize winner raises key questions: How big will the impact of the current innovations be? And how soon will they show up? “As for the second question, history suggests that the large economic impact of AI will take longer to materialize than many people seem to be expecting at this time,” writes Krugman. He points to the rise in computing power in the mid-20th century and its delayed impact on productivity.
This article has been translated from English. You can find the original here.