According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Thursday morning, the total retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 12.7% year-on-year, a drop of 5.7 percentage points from the previous month, which was also weaker than expected.
Prior to this, the indicator increased by 18.4% year-on-year in April, 7.8 percentage points faster than the previous month, but weaker than expected.
In March, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 10.6% year-on-year, 7.1 percentage points faster than that in January-February. In the first quarter, it increased by 5.8% year-on-year, reversing the momentum of a 2.7% decline in the fourth quarter of last year.
In December 2022, the value will decrease by 1.8% year-on-year. In September of that year, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods fell sharply to 2.5%. In October, this indicator fell by 0.5% year-on-year, reversing the previous upward trend.
The median estimate of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal showed retail sales rose 13.1% in May from a year earlier.
In addition, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in May increased by 0.42% month-on-month. Prior to this, the month-on-month increase was 0.49% in April.
Cumulatively, the total retail sales of consumer goods from January to May this year increased by 9.3% year-on-year. Previously, the growth rate from January to April was 8.5% year-on-year.
In 2022, the total retail sales of consumer goods will decrease by 0.2%.
In 2021, the total retail sales of consumer goods will increase by 12.5% year-on-year, with an average increase of 3.9% in two years.
Affected by the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the indicator dropped sharply by 20.5% year-on-year from January to February 2020, the lowest since records were kept. It did not become positive until August of that year, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. For the whole of 2020, this indicator fell by 3.9% year-on-year.
For many years before this, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods maintained double-digit growth.
At the same time, the National Bureau of Statistics of China also announced that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in May increased by 3.5% year-on-year, a sharp drop of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, in line with market expectations.
Previously, this indicator increased by 5.6% year-on-year in April, higher than the previous value but significantly lower than expected; in the first quarter, it increased by 3.0%, 0.3 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year.
In April last year, due to the sudden outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai, the industrial added value unexpectedly fell by 2.9%. In May, the downward trend was reversed to a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and the growth rate began to accelerate in June.
At the beginning of December last year, China suddenly announced the loosening of the epidemic prevention and control measures that had been implemented for nearly three years. With the surge in the number of infections, industrial production was affected.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect China’s industrial output to have risen 3.5% in May from a year earlier.
From a month-on-month perspective, the industrial added value in May increased by 0.63% month-on-month; the previous April fell by 0.47% month-on-month.
Affected by the sudden outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the indicator fell by 13.5% year-on-year from January to February 2020, a record low; it became positive for the first time in April of that year, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%; from January to August, the cumulative indicator turned positive for the first time in the year, year-on-year An increase of 0.4%.
For the whole year of 2020, the year-on-year growth rate of added value of industrial enterprises above designated size dropped to 2.8%. In 2021, it will increase by 9.6% year-on-year, with an average increase of 6.1% in two years.
The annual industrial added value in 2022 will increase by 3.6% year-on-year.
In addition, China’s fixed asset investment excluding rural households increased by 4.0% year-on-year from January to May, a drop of 0.7 percentage points from January to April, which was lower than market expectations.
Prior to this, the indicator increased by 4.7% year-on-year from January to April, which was lower than market expectations. From January to March, it increased by 5.1% year-on-year, which was the same as that of the previous year, but lower than the previous value and expectations.
The median forecast of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal showed that fixed-asset investment excluding farmers rose 4.4% from a year earlier in the first five months.
The Bureau of Statistics also announced that from a month-on-month perspective, fixed asset investment excluding rural households in May increased by 0.11% month-on-month; the previous April fell by 0.64% month-on-month.
At the beginning of 2020, the new crown epidemic suddenly broke out in China. Affected by this, from January to February 2020, fixed asset investment excluding rural households fell by 24.5% year-on-year, hitting a record low. After that, the decline narrowed month by month. Turned positive, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year.
For the whole of 2020, this indicator increased by 2.9% year-on-year.
In 2021, fixed asset investment excluding rural households will increase by 4.9% year-on-year, and in 2022 it will increase by 5.1%.
(This article is from Dow Jones Chinese Financial News)
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