Views this week: The thermal coal peak season continues, and the daily consumption of power plants continues to be significantly higher than the same period in history. Although domestic production is gradually released under the guidance of policy or in August, domestic coal prices are expected to remain strong under low inventories. Optimistic about the steam coal standard and the leading coking coal.
In terms of thermal coal, the CCI 5500 index continued to stabilize at RMB 947/ton this week, and the Bohai Rim Index of the long-term association was RMB 672/ton, which is +2 RMB/ton from the previous month. On the downstream side, the daily consumption of power plants increased month-on-month this week, and exceeded the same period last year by about 10%; power plant inventories continued to decline this week and entered the low level of inventory in recent years. It is expected that power plants will have greater replenishment pressure in the future.
In terms of pit-mouth production, production at the production area is at a normal level, and some have been marketed by safety accidents. There is no obvious sign of increasing production. The pit-mouth coal price continued to rise this week. In terms of transportation, the volume of the Daqin line picked up this week, and the shipping price continued to rise this week. In terms of ports, the transfers from northern ports increased, but the transfers were slightly affected by the weather, and the coal stocks of ports in the Bohai Rim were basically flat this week.
Although affected by the weather and the epidemic, the daily consumption of power plants on the demand side has maintained a high level of 10% over the same period last year, while the supply side has not increased production and supply significantly, and coal prices continue to remain strong. In terms of inventory, power plant inventory has entered a low level, and port inventory is also at a low level. We expect that power plants will still have greater pressure to replenish inventory in the future.
From the perspective of the possible marginal increase on the supply side, since the domestic and foreign import price gap is not wide, the marginal increase contributed by imported coal may be limited. The future will mainly depend on the pace and intensity of domestic production increase. This week, the Development and Reform Commission and other three departments jointly issued a notice: the implementation of capacity replacement commitments for nuclear increase of coal mine production capacity. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that 38 open-pit mines will resume production, which can increase production by 200,000 tons per day. Domestic production is expected to increase in August. But on the whole, we believe that the short-term thermal coal price is still strong, and there is no risk of a sharp decline for the time being under the circumstances of strong demand and low inventories across the entire industry chain.
In terms of double coke, coking coal prices continued to rise this week, while coke remained flat. Steel demand has entered the off-season, but supply-side provinces have successively introduced steel output leveling policies. Supply contraction is expected to continue to increase steel prices. Future steel price trends will enter a game of contraction at both ends of supply and demand, mainly depending on the actual implementation of supply-side production restrictions. The demand for coke has fallen in line with the steel off-season and production restrictions. However, the start of coking enterprises is also limited due to environmental protection and other factors. The future trend of coke prices depends on the game between supply and demand and the cost support of coking coal. In the short term, it is still strong; the cost of coking coal The week continues to rise, mainly due to the tight supply side. Although the downstream coking steel industry chain of coking coal shrinks with the off-season demand and supply restrictions, the supply and demand gap of the main coking coal caused by the Australian coal restrictions has existed for a long time. We are still optimistic about the medium and long-term coking coal. price.
In the hot season for thermal coal and the long-term gap in the supply of coking coal, we are optimistic about the performance of thermal coal companies.PerformanceThe coking coal leader with elasticity, stable and continuous supply-side contraction logic, and the target with elastic performance in the second quarter.The second-quarter performance of listed companies in the coal sector is expected to increase both volume and price, and a year-on-year increase. Recommend the leading thermal coalShaanxi Coal Industry、China Shenhua、Open-pit coal industry、Yanzhou Coal Industry, The leading coking coal areaPanjiang shares, The beneficiary subjectShanmei International、China Coal Energy、Jinkong CoalWait.
This week, CITIC Coal Index -1.0%, outperformed the broader market.
Nearly 5 days (7.26-7.30)The Shanghai Composite Index-4.3%，Shenzhen Component Index-3.7%. In the CITIC Industry Index, the coal index is -1.0%, ranking 6th among the 30 CITIC Tier 1 industries.In the coal sector, the top five with the largest gains wereYanzhou Coal Industry、Shanxi Coking Coal、Yongtai Energy、Pingmei Co., Ltd.、Huaibei Mining; The top five with the largest declines areZhengzhou Coal and Electricity、China Coal Energy、Jinneng Technology、Shaanxi Black Cat, ST is great.
Thermal coal pit prices rose, coking coal continued to rise, and coke remained flat.
This week’s thermal coal port index, thermal coal pit head price, coking coal price, rebar price, seaborne coal price, international priceOil priceInternational coal prices and coke prices have basically stabilized; cement prices have stopped changing.
In terms of thermal coal, the CCI 5500 index continued to stabilize at RMB 947/ton this week, and the Bohai Rim Index of the long-term association was RMB 672/ton, which is +2 RMB/ton from the previous month. On the downstream side, the daily consumption of power plants has increased this week, and still exceeds the level of nearly 10% in the same period last year; power plant inventories continue to decline this week, although the decline has narrowed, it is still in the process of destocking, which is significantly lower than the historical period. , The power plant is expected to have greater pressure on replenishment in the future. In terms of pitheads, production at the production area is at a normal level, and there is no obvious sign of increasing production. The pithead coal prices rebounded this week. In terms of transportation, due to the inversion of prices at ports and pits and weather reasons, the volume of the Daqin line continued to be at a low level this week, and the shipping price increased slightly this week. In terms of ports, coal stocks in ports around the Bohai Sea continued to move quickly to the warehouse this week.
In terms of double coke, coking coal prices continued to rise this week, while coke remained flat.
Recommended subject:Shaanxi Coal Industry、China Shenhua、Open-pit coal industry、Panjiang shares、Yanzhou Coal Industry. Benefit subject:Shanmei International、China Coal Energy、Jinkong CoalWait.
In the hot season for thermal coal and the long-term gap in the supply of coking coal, we are optimistic about the performance flexibility of thermal coal companies, the logically stable and continuous supply-side contraction of coking coal leaders, and the targets with performance flexibility in the second quarter.The second-quarter performance of listed companies in the coal sector is expected to increase both volume and price, and a year-on-year increase. Recommend the leading thermal coalShaanxi Coal Industry、China Shenhua、Open-pit coal industry, Yanzhou Coal Industry, the leading coking coal areaPanjiang shares, The beneficiary subjectShanmei International、China Coal Energy、Jinkong CoalWait.
risk warning
Macroeconomic systemic risks; repeated epidemics; hydropower exceeding expectations; domestic coal production releases exceeding expectations under the policy of increasing production and supply; relaxation of imported coal policies exceeding expectations; expectations such as “carbon neutrality” fermentation exceeding expectations; technological progress in new energy Exceeded expectations.
(Article Source:West China Securities）
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