On May 31, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice on reducing the purchase tax of some passenger vehicles.announcement, for passenger cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters and below whose purchase date is between June 1, 2022 and December 31, 2022 and whose bicycle price (excluding VAT) does not exceed 300,000 yuan, the vehicle purchase price will be halved Tax. The coverage of this policy has exceeded market expectations and has benefited most of the fuel vehicles. At present, the worst time in the auto industry has passed, and various policies such as purchase tax reduction and exemption, car going to the countryside, and consumption subsidies are expected to significantly boost auto consumption, and industry sales are expected to be quickly repaired.
The purchase tax relief was officially implemented, and the policy scope exceeded market expectations. On May 31, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement on the reduction of vehicle purchase tax for some passenger vehicles. Tax) for 2.0-liter and below-displacement passenger cars not exceeding 300,000 yuan, the vehicle purchase tax will be halved. Previously, the market expected that the purchase tax reduction and exemption scope was for models with a displacement of 1.6L or less, and the final policy was implemented for models with a displacement of 2.0L and below, and the coverage of the policy exceeded market expectations. In addition to the stimulus policies for automobile consumption and the “automobile to the countryside” activities launched by various localities, it is expected that the sales volume of the automobile industry is expected to usher in a relatively rapid recovery.
The policy is expected to drive new demand for 1.08-1.8 million passenger vehicles. Reviewing the 2009/2015 purchase tax reduction and exemption stimulus policies, the cumulative purchase tax reduction and exemption were 47.1/152.2 billion yuan, respectively, and the leverage factor for driving consumption (that is, how much car consumption can be driven by 1 yuan tax reduction) is about 14.6/5.4 times. Considering that the leverage multiplier has a certain marginal diminishing effect, assuming that the leverage multipliers of this stimulus policy are 3/4/5 times respectively, and calculated based on the 60 billion yuan purchase tax reduction proposed by the previous National Convention, it is expected to stimulate consumption by 1,800 yuan. /2400/300 billion yuan, corresponding to 108/144/1.8 million new car purchase demands.
The purchase tax relief covers a wide range, and most of the fuel vehicles are included. In terms of displacement, according to the data of insurance coverage, the sales of passenger cars with a displacement of 2.0L and below in 2021 will account for 97.4% of fuel vehicles and 83.2% of all passenger cars. In terms of price segment, sales of models below 300,000 yuan accounted for 86.8% of fuel vehicles.
The purchase tax reduction and exemption policy covers a wide range, and has benefited most of the fuel vehicles, which is expected to form an all-round stimulus and boost to automobile consumption. In terms of structure and flexibility, the car companies with the largest proportion of the sales volume below 2.0L in the car companies’ own sales in 2021 include: GAC Passenger Car 100%, GAC Honda 99%, SAIC-GM 98%, FAW-Volkswagen 96% , SAIC Volkswagen 96%,Geely Auto95%、Changan Automobile(autonomous) 91%,Great Wall Motors83%, SAIC Motor 79%, GAC Toyota 77%.
Purchase tax relief is aimed at fuel vehicles, but various places are also rolling out benefitsnew energycar policy.becausenew energyThe car itself is not subject to acquisition and purchase tax, so the purchase tax reduction and exemption policy is beneficial to fuel vehicles and HEVs.
However, local governments are also introducing measures according to local conditions.new energyAutomobile stimulus policies: For example, Shanghai will provide a subsidy of 10,000 yuan for each replacement of pure electric vehicles, and Shenzhen will provide a subsidy of no more than 10,000 yuan per vehicle for newly purchased eligible new energy vehicles. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, and the National Energy Administration have decided to jointly organize a new round of new energy vehicles to go to the countryside. New energy vehicles are expected to further sink to low-tier cities, and the general trend of electrification is still continuing.
Risk factors: The macroeconomic growth rate is down; the industry sales volume is lower than expected; the shortage of cores is intensified.
Investment strategy: The purchase tax reduction and exemption policy is officially implemented, and its coverage exceeds market expectations. It is expected to have a significant boosting effect on auto sales, and is optimistic about the overall recovery and development of the auto sector. This policy will obviously benefit car companies with high sales flexibility and good profit margins, especially car companies with traditional fuel vehicles as their profit core:GAC Group、Geely Auto、Great Wall Motors、Changan Automobile、SAICWait. In addition, in the long run, we still believe that the hot sale of new energy vehicles is the most worthy investment line. Even if there is no follow-up policy, Wei Xiaoli,BYDandTesla‘s hot sales will continue to be the main line of investment throughout the year. We continue to highlight:
ideal car、Xiaopeng Motors、NIOand other new car-making forces leading intelligent innovation, as well as new energy vehicle sales, and profit margins are expected to be greatly improved.BYD(A+H?). In the parts sector, our current key recommendations include:Ryoden Electric Control、Xusheng shares、Baolong Technology、Huayang Group、Thundersoft、 Desay SV、Top Group、Zhongding shares、Bethel、Fuyao Glass、Xingyu sharesWait. At the same time, we believe that high-quality leading dealers will also fully benefit from the recovery of auto sales. We recommend:Zhongsheng Holdings、Meidong Automobile、Yongda Automobile。
(Article Source:CITIC Securities）