(Original title: Commodity “radish squat”! Building materials take over the coal series, and iron ore is “halved”! High-level voices, the price of pit coal has dropped to less than 1,000 yuan! How much does the cold wave affect?)
At present, the quotation of the commodity market can be described as “you go and I come”!
The decline of coal measures has been temporarily suspended, and building materials will immediately take on the “big stick” of the decline! Yesterday, most of the domestic commodity futures markets closed down. Iron ore fell by a limit, glass fell by more than 9%, rebar and wire rod fell by 8%, ferrosilicon fell by more than 7%, and thermal coal fell by more than 5%. Yesterday’s night trading closed, glass, rebar, iron ore, etc. continued their downward trend, all exceeding 2%, while thermal coal, coke, and coking coal all closed in red!
The expectation of “cold winter” is strengthened, and high-level leaders are intensively speaking for energy supply and price stability this winter and next spring!
With all efforts to ensure supply and stable prices, how will the upcoming cold weather affect the commodity market?
Voice from the top: Do a good job in ensuring energy supply this winter and next spring
According to Xinhua News Agency, on November 1, Li Keqiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, visited the State Administration for Market Regulation and hosted a symposium on the development and growth of market entities. Li Keqiang pointed out that we should do a good job in ensuring the supply and price of electricity and coal.
On November 2, Han Zheng, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, visited the State Grid Co., Ltd. to investigate and presided over a symposium to implement the important instructions and requirements of General Secretary Jinping, and re-study the work of ensuring energy supply for this winter and next spring. Deploy again.
Han Zheng emphasized that all relevant departments and units in all regions must firmly establish a sense of the overall situation, earnestly implement their responsibilities, and focus on ensuring energy supply this winter and next spring. It is necessary to increase the supply of thermal coal and natural gas through multiple channels, continue to ensure the supply of thermal coal and stabilize prices, and vigorously promote the clean utilization of coal. It is necessary to restore the power generation capacity of coal-fired power enterprises to a normal level as soon as possible, promote the normal operation of unplanned shutdowns of generating units, and achieve full delivery. The government should strengthen the regulation of coal prices in accordance with the law, and accelerate the study of the market-oriented price formation mechanism for coal-electricity linkage. It is necessary to adhere to the principle that coal is suitable for coal, electricity is suitable for electricity, and gas is suitable for gas; when it is suitable to be concentrated, centralized, and when dispersed, it is necessary to implement the “coal to electricity” and “coal to gas” in a steady and orderly manner. It is necessary to encourage financial institutions to guarantee the reasonable financing needs of coal-fired power and heating enterprises, strengthen fiscal and taxation and other policy support, and help enterprises alleviate the staged difficulties. We must adhere to the bottom line of safety, make overall plans for the safe production of coal and power enterprises, the safe operation of the power grid, and the safe supply of the entire society. It is necessary to improve energy import and export and reserve management, pay close attention to changes in international energy prices, better guide and stabilize market expectations, and ensure the smooth operation of the domestic energy market. The coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation guarantee mechanism should increase its work, enhance the authority and effectiveness of coordination, and respond to new situations and problems in a timely and effective manner.
In response to encouraging the storage of a certain amount of daily necessities, the Ministry of Commerce responded: the supply is completely guaranteed
The Ministry of Commerce recently issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in Maintaining the Supply and Stabilizing Prices of Vegetables and Other Daily Necessities in the Market for the Winter and Spring” mentioned that “Families are encouraged to store a certain amount of daily necessities as needed to meet the needs of daily life and emergencies. “This sentence has aroused the public’s attention, and there are also some phenomena of over-interpretation.
Yesterday, the head of the Consumer Promotion Department of the Ministry of Commerce responded to this when interviewed by reporters.
Zhu Xiaoliang, Director of the Department of Consumption Promotion of the Ministry of Commerce, said that from the current situation, the supply of living materials in various places is sufficient, and the supply should be fully guaranteed.
Some time ago, affected by various factors such as abnormal weather, vegetable prices continued to rise, which affected the lives of urban and rural residents.
Zhu Xiaoliang said that the Ministry of Commerce issued a special notice with the purpose of urging all localities to strictly implement the “vegetable basket” mayor responsibility system, instructing commercial circulation companies to strengthen supply organization, unblock production and sales, purchase storage-resistant vegetables in advance, and sign vegetable supply agreements with bases.
In addition, the notice requires that the northern provinces must complete the winter and spring vegetable reserve plan for this year on time, and the southern provinces must establish and improve vegetable reserves according to their own conditions; timely release meat, vegetables and other daily necessities reserves to supplement market supply; make full use of the network of large-scale chain business enterprises Advantages to ensure the normal operation of the commercial supply network; timely release of commodity market supply and demand and price information to stabilize social expectations; if individual places adopt closed management measures due to epidemic prevention and control, it is necessary to promptly announce the source, address, contact information and other information of the guaranteed supply network to satisfy Residents’ daily necessities purchase demand.
The margin standard for trading of some thermal coal futures contracts is adjusted to 50%
The ZCE announced yesterday that starting from the settlement on November 4, the trading margin standard for thermal coal futures 2112 and 2201 contracts will be adjusted to 50%, and the trading margin standard for thermal coal futures 2202, 2203, 2204 and 2205 contracts will be adjusted to 40. %.
Many coal companies in Inner Mongolia took the initiative to lower the price of pit coal to below 1,000 yuan/ton
The reporter was informed that recently, Yitai Group, Mengtai Group, Huineng Group and Xinglong Group of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region took the initiative to lower the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal pithead to below 1,000 yuan/ton. From the perspective of market monitoring, the country’s coal production has recently increased significantly, coal reserves in northern ports and national integrated power plants have increased rapidly, coal supply and demand have continued to improve, and coal futures spot market prices have all declined significantly. In the next step, as the supply and demand situation continues to improve, it is expected that coal prices will accelerate their return to a reasonable level.
Black series plummeted, iron ore was “halved”
Yesterday, the domestic commodity futures market suffered heavy losses in black products. The main iron ore, rebar, and hot-coil futures contracts in the intraday market all fell by their limit and then opened again. As of the afternoon’s close, the main iron ore contract 2201 fell by a limit of 9.95%, and closed at 565.5 yuan/ton. Compared with the price of 1132 yuan/ton on July 16, the price of iron ore was almost “halved”; the main force of rebar The 2201 contract closed down by a limit of 8%, and closed at 4230 yuan/ton. In less than half a month, the rebar futures had reached the limit twice.
A reporter from the Futures Daily learned that early spot market prices have also fallen across the board. The spot prices of iron ore in major ports have fallen by 30-40 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of rebar and hot coils in the Hangzhou market have fallen by more than 100 yuan/ton.
Qiu Yuecheng, research director of the black department of Everbright Futures, believes that yesterday’s spot prices of iron ore and steel futures fell mainly due to several reasons:
First, the price of thermal coal has recently fallen sharply due to increased supply and policy regulation, which has greatly suppressed the overall trend of industrial products. The industrial product index in this round has dropped sharply by 20%, and the market sentiment is pessimistic.
Second, the supply of iron ore is relatively stable, demand continues to remain weak, and port inventories have accumulated significantly. As of November 1, China’s 45 ports’ iron ore inventory has accumulated to 146 million tons. The accumulated inventory in the past month is 13 million tons, which is higher than 18 million tons in the same period last year. The current situation of port pressure is still serious. The number is 190, which is at a high level. Both explicit and implicit stocks are sufficient, and the market has expected that the port stocks may accumulate to 170-180 million tons by the end of the year.
The third is the recent sharp drop in ocean freight. The ocean freight from Brazil to China has dropped from the highest of USD 50/ton at the end of September to the current USD 28/ton, and the ocean freight from Western Australia to China has dropped from USD 22.7/ton to USD 12.4/ton. , Resulting in weakening of iron ore cost support.
Fourth, the supply and demand of finished products have weakened, and the demand performance has continued to fall short of expectations. For example, in the last three weeks, the demand for rebar watches has fallen by 27%, 30%, and 31% year-on-year, respectively. Incoming inventory decline has slowed down significantly.
Fifth, the inventory of some steel mills has accumulated recently, and the pressure on steel mills has increased, and its pricing position in the industry chain has weakened. For example, Shagang lowered the ex-factory price of rebar in early November by 600 yuan/ton, and made up for the previous period by 800 yuan/ton. , Making market expectations more pessimistic.
Zhu Shaonan, a black researcher at Soochow Futures, said that since late October, the black iron ore has been relatively resilient, but the fundamentals have not substantially improved. As the port continues to accumulate warehouses, and Shanghai freight prices have fallen, the spot price of iron ore futures began last week. It began to weaken significantly, and the pallet fell to the limit yesterday.
As for rebar and hot coil, Zhu Shaonan believes that the price decline is mainly due to two reasons. On the one hand, the demand is seriously lower than expected, and the demand is about to enter the off-season, so the room for demand improvement is very limited; on the other hand, the cost is collapsed. According to the logic, iron ore itself has poor fundamentals, weak prices are difficult to change, and coke prices have historically been high. Once the price of coking coal is loosened, coke spot has a lot of room for downside.
Looking forward to the future, Qiu Yuecheng said that with the economy facing downward pressure and some varieties are under strong policy control, the entire industrial products have been weakening recently. The market is pessimistic about demand expectations, and short-term black products may continue to be under pressure.
Zhu Shaonan said that from the perspective of fundamental data, the fundamentals of iron ore are worse than in 2018, and there is still room for downside compared with 2018 prices. Under the background that the demand for finished products is difficult to rebound significantly, the price will still perform relatively weakly, and the space below needs to pay attention to when the coke price can stabilize.
Inventories of manufacturing companies hit new highs, and glass plummeted
Since October 19, glass and soda ash futures have continued to fall. Yesterday, the glass futures closed sharply, the main 2201 contract closed down 9.16% to close at 1,627 yuan/ton; the main 2201 soda ash futures contract closed down 4.15% to close at 2,563 yuan/ton.
Wei Chaoming, a glass researcher at Founder Mid-term Futures, said that from the perspective of supply and demand, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash have turned weak.
The transition point of the contradiction between glass supply and demand was at the beginning of the third quarter. In terms of supply, under the guidance of high profits, a large number of cold repair devices resumed production in the second and early third quarters. Since then, the production line has maintained a record high of about 265. In terms of demand, it has been affected by multiple factors such as large-scale rainstorms across the country, multiple spreads of the new crown epidemic, and weak real estate demand. The accumulation of inventory of glass manufacturers has been 13 weeks since the end of July. Last week, the total inventory of production enterprises in the key monitoring provinces was 39.6 million weight boxes, which was 2.15 million weight boxes compared with the previous week. The inventory of production enterprises has crossed the period high in mid-October and moved to the high point of the year at the end of the first quarter. Only in some areas, such as Hubei, Zhejiang and other places, enterprises have price advantages, and factories and warehouses have been reduced by a certain amount. “On a national scale, the successive record highs of inventories of glass manufacturers have aggravated the market’s worries. It is reasonable for the trend of glass spot prices and futures prices to be weak.” Wei Chaoming said.
Zhang Li, a researcher at Yide Futures, said that the sharp drop in glass futures prices is still the continuation of loose supply and demand. Inventories have been exhausted to a high position over the years, and inventories will continue to be significantly tired, but the cold repair has not yet materialized, and the spot price is still 2400. -The level of 2500 yuan / ton, the spot profit is not bad, the disk reflects high inventory expectations, and it is bound to penetrate the cost. According to 800 yuan / ton of thermal coal, the cost of glass is around 1550 yuan / ton, and the contract price of glass futures 2201 is close Costs have little downward space, but the rebound strength is also limited.
Wei Chaoming said that the inventories of glass manufacturers have reached a new high in the near future, and the disk is under significant pressure downward, and there is still a possibility of inertial decline in the short term. At the same time, it is worth noting that the profit of glass production continues to be compressed, and the disk profit is already at a loss. After the production profit enters the loss-making stage, the probability of over-age service kiln maintenance will increase significantly. Under the deep discount pattern, be wary of the risk of empty chasing.
“The demand side of the soda ash industry is driven by the two-wheeled demand for float glass and photovoltaic glass, and the supply side is affected by the dual control of energy consumption. The first three quarters have been operating in the prosperous range, prices have continued to rise, and industry profits have improved significantly.” Chaoming said that the stocks of soda ash manufacturers have accumulated for four consecutive weeks recently, and the cold repair expectations of some over-aged float glass devices and the progress of the photovoltaic glass production line are not as expected, and the market’s overly optimistic sentiment is collided. Although the manufacturers continue to maintain the price strategy, the futures disk is still on the market. Continued to fall sharply under the pattern of deep discounts. The demand for soda ash is expected to fall back to reality, and there is room for further reduction in profit levels. It is advisable to continue to be cautious in the later period.
Zhang Li believes that the sharp drop in soda ash futures prices is more of a cost logic superimposed on expectations of cold glass repairs. From the perspective of supply and demand, soda ash is still optimistic. The sharp drop is mainly due to the lower cost driven by the sharp drop in thermal coal. In addition, the large amount of cold float repair in the later stage offsets the increase in demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass, so soda ash has been critically hit. In the long-term, the supply and demand of soda ash is balanced and there is no major contradiction, but the price is still at a historically high position, and there is still room for downside in the long-term. In the short term, the social inventory of soda ash is still in the de-stocking process. In December, the stock has become exhausted, and the overall inventory pressure is not great. In the short-term, manufacturers have strong prices, mainly due to disk fluctuations, and there is limited downside space. Looking at the mid-line, soda ash still has the possibility of large ups and downs.
Market sentiment superimposed on weak fundamentals, weak PVC operation
As the types of coal-based futures fell sharply, the types of coal chemical products fell simultaneously. Yesterday, the main 2201 contract of PVC futures once fell by the intraday limit, and closed down 5.9% to 8673 yuan/ton. Major contracts such as methanol and urea fell by 2.47% and 4.21% respectively.
Green Dahua Futures Chemical Researcher Wu Zhiqiao said that the price of PVC futures fell sharply yesterday. On the one hand, it was related to market sentiment. Thermal coal futures prices continued to be under pressure. About 85% of domestic PVC production came from calcium carbide method (raw material sources are blue charcoal and coal). Therefore, coal prices have a greater impact on the cost of PVC; on the other hand, it has a certain relationship with the weak fundamentals of PVC itself.
According to Wu Zhiqiao’s analysis, from the supply side, as of October 28, domestic PVC production was 405,600 tons, an increase of 4% month-on-month and an increase year-on-year. PVC supply pressure still exists. And last week, corporate inventories continued to increase, pre-sale orders decreased, and power cuts in some areas were relaxed after October, and PVC production companies started to increase expectations.
From the perspective of inventory, according to Longzhong data, the inventory of PVC manufacturers increased month-on-month and pre-sale orders declined last week. However, the social inventory has dropped from the previous month. The main reason is that the supply of PVC in the early stage has been concentrated, and some warehouses have stopped receiving. However, since October 31st, some warehouses have resumed receiving one after another, and PVC social stocks are expected to increase month-on-month this week.
From the demand side, according to Longzhong survey data, the domestic PVC profile and pipe operating rate is still less than 50%. In addition, with the arrival of winter, the start of infrastructure construction in the north is expected to slow down, and some profile companies in the northwest are facing the risk of shutdown. Therefore, the recent weak demand side will still restrict the upward trend of PVC prices.
From the perspective of holding positions, as of November 2, among the top 20 positions of long and short positions in the main PVC contract, both long and short positions have increased their positions by a large margin. Among them, the net long position increased by 1,558, and the net short position increased by 16,233.
Looking ahead, Wu Zhiqiao believes that PVC futures prices may still oscillate weakly before thermal coal prices stabilize. Based on the previous market estimates for the pit-mouth price of thermal coal at RMB 528/ton and the port at RMB 800/ton, the current spot price of thermal coal may still fall. The recent upside-down of PVC traders’ shipments may force upstream PVC companies to cut prices for sale. From a technical point of view, the main PVC contract has continuously fallen below the previous support levels of 9,100 yuan/ton and 8,800 yuan/ton, or continue to look for support downward.
Wu Zhiqiao believes that the bullish factors are mainly due to the decline in domestic PVC prices that are expected to become global PVC price depressions, the opening of the export arbitrage window, and the redistribution of the profits of upstream and downstream PVC enterprises, the profitability of downstream PVC products has begun to improve. In the medium to long term, the price of PVC may return to the fundamental operating logic.
Zhang Li said that under the support of cost, the supply is loose, and the supply and demand may continue to be loose at the margin, the main consideration is the properties of PVC building materials, the demand is hard to say optimistic, and the rebound of PVC is limited, or it will maintain a weak pattern.
The cold wave hits, affects geometry?
The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that under the influence of the cold wave, my country will experience a strong wind cooling from the northwest to the southeast from November 4 to 7, with strong rain and snow in some areas and strong wind in the eastern sea. The temperature in most parts of my country will drop by 8℃-10℃ successively, and in parts of Northwest, North China, Huanghuai, western Jianghuai, and southern Northeast China, the temperature will drop by 12℃-14℃, and the local temperature will drop by more than 16℃. On the morning of the 7th, the 0℃ line of the lowest temperature will be located in central Hebei, southwestern Shanxi to southern Shaanxi, and the lowest temperature in the Beijing Plain can drop to about -4℃.
Zhao Ruochen, a thermal coal researcher at Haitong Futures, said that large-scale cooling will inevitably lead to an increase in coal consumption, especially the increase in heating in the north will promote coal demand. In addition, the snowfall brought by the cold wave will also put pressure on coal transportation.
Jintai Futures Energy and Chemical Analyst Chen Jie said that the strong wind and cooling weather caused by the cold current will obviously boost the heating demand in most areas of the country, including the south. As the Huanghuai region enters the heating season, the daily consumption of downstream power plants is expected Steady improvement, increased willingness to purchase just in demand. In the short term, as the coal price bubble squeezed out under the policy of ensuring strong supply in the early period, the accumulation of ports in ports accelerated, and the later market is expected to gradually become balanced under the combined effect of seasonal demand in the wind and winter and the implementation of the policy to ensure supply.
In addition, strong winds, rain and snow in major producing areas such as Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia also have an impact on coal export and port loading and unloading. The previous accelerated pace of accumulation of storage at ports may slow down.
Liu Jin, a senior analyst at Green Dahua Futures, told reporters that the place where the cold current passes has little impact on agricultural products. Winter wheat has just been planted and is not afraid of cold waves. The cold wave will have a greater impact on the price of vegetables, especially leafy vegetables, which are prone to frostbite.
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