On the one hand, signs of a slowdown and possible reversal of the economic cycle, on the other, comforting indications from the labor market and the expectations of households and businesses. This is the picture that emerges from December’s “Congiuntura Confcommercio” according to which on the consumption front, the analysis by the Confederal Research Office shows that high inflation has an impact on the purchasing power of families. In November, consumption is slowing down, as emerges from the ICC Confcommercio, down by 0.7% compared to the same month in 2021. Food, furniture, household appliances, automotive and clothing are particularly bad.
Given these dynamics, the Research Department estimates a 0.7% cyclical reduction in GDP for December and a 0.2% growth on an annual basis.
Finally, as far as inflation is concerned, December should not bring the expected trend reversal, with a monthly increase of 0.6% and an annual increase of 12%. The expected turnaround will have to wait for the late spring of next year, with negative consequences on the growth prospects for 2023.