Source: Soochow Futures Author: Soochow Futures
The text of the research report
Market information:
1. On September 20, the SMMA00 aluminum price fell to 18,650 yuan / ton. The discount in Wuxi was unchanged from the previous day, the discount in Gongyi narrowed slightly, and the discount in Foshan expanded slightly. The downstream is mainly based on just-needed procurement, and the transaction situation is general.
2. Rusal is working on a plan to deliver aluminium directly to LME warehouses in Asia as it struggles to find buyers.
3. Japan’s Marubeni Corp said that as of the end of August 2022, aluminum inventories at Japan’s three major ports increased by 9.8% month-on-month to 399,800 tons, a multi-year high. It is reported that local demand for automobiles is weak, aluminum inventories have risen, and the aluminum premium in the third quarter has also fallen compared to the previous period.
Trend analysis:
Supply-side disturbances continue, aluminum prices wait for new guidelines September 21Shanghai AluminumThe main contract closed up 0.11% in daily trading and down 0.88% in night trading; LME closed down 2.31%. LME aluminum inventories fell by 2,700 tons to 343,325 tons on September 21.
On the supply side, the resumption of production in Sichuan and Chongqing is in progress, and the 10% load reduction in Yunnan has not yet expanded. According to SMM statistics, Guizhou, Guangyuan, and Inner Mongolia still have new production capacity released.
On the demand side, consumption may improve month-on-month, but it is not as good as the same period in previous years, and the aluminum ingots are accumulating.
On the whole, there is support from the phased production reduction below the aluminum price, and there is support from the phased production reduction above. In the medium and long term, aluminum prices are still under the pressure of oversupply, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of load reduction and production reduction in Yunnan on the balance sheet.
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