The text of the research report
【Copper-Market Focus】
On the macro front, Fed Powell said the Fed needs to take decisive and forceful action on inflation, and Brainard promised to suppress high inflation; the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 75BP, the largest since 1999; Denmark’s central bank raised interest rates by 75BP to end negative interest rates; the Bank of Canada increased interest rates. The interest rate was 75BP; the RBA raised the interest rate by 50BP.
On the supply side, TC prices are rising, smelting profits are relatively considerable, and smelters are expected to gradually resume production. The current domestic problem of electricity curtailment has been basically resolved. On the consumer side, the downstream copper consumption has entered the peak season, and the peak demand season has gradually been realized and the short-term macro sentiment has improved. The copper price is expected to gradually rise in the short term.
【Aluminum-Market Focus】
From a fundamental point of view, on the supply side, by the end of August 2022, Yunnan Province’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity will be 5.26 million tons, and the operating capacity will be 5.25 million tons. It is necessary to pay attention to the production situation in Yunnan and other regions after the festival.
On the demand side, downstream consumption has improved slightly, and the performance of the automotive photovoltaic sector is acceptable. Pay attention to the impact of the spread of the epidemic on demand and supply disturbances. In the short term, it is still supported by the improvement of macro sentiment and the peak consumption season.
【Nickel-Market Focus】
From a fundamental point of view, overseas sentiment has improved slightly, but the spot market transaction is still light, and the premium of pure nickel has dropped. The supply and demand of NPI and pure nickel are weak, and the demand margin of the new energy sector is improving, but the willingness to purchase downstream is not strong.
The overall low inventory still supports nickel prices, but the macro and fundamentals are still bearish in the medium term, and the short-term policy and funds will be greatly disturbed. At present, the contradiction between the long-term bearish situation and the low inventory status still exists, and the bearish thinking of the central line remains unchanged.
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Responsible editor: Zhang Jingdi