Giorgia Meloni and Giancarlo Giorgetti
The gap could generally concern schools, universities, transport, justice and even defense (with a reduction in expenses to support Ukraine militarily and financial commitments with NATO)
“I will not make a corrective maneuver for the new Stability Pact. A corrective maneuver for the public finances will not be necessary in 2024 because the path already written in the Nadef in September is fully in line with the new European public finance rules”. These are the words pronounced at a hearing in Parliament by the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti last Wednesday 27 December.
Officially the majority and the government reject the hypothesis of a corrective measure, which according to the opposition will be inevitable next year. With the European elections in six months and the electoral campaign having already begun, it is obvious that the executive and the Centre-right deny it and it is equally obvious that the minorities will base the electoral campaign precisely on the need to intervene in the summer to “fix” the accounts.
Behind the scenes, however, just after the final approval of the Budget Law by the Chamber, qualified centre-right sources do not at all exclude the need for a corrective measure, obviously after the European elections and denying it until the polls close. As a timing, we are therefore talking – in the scenarios that are commonly made – of the end of July, before the summer break. It will all depend on how far the recession goes Germania will have an impact on the Italian economy. The close correlation with the performance of the German economy is known to everyone, especially as regards the manufacturing sector, but not only. The government has estimated a very ambitious GDP growth of 1.2% for 2024, much higher than that of BankItalia (0.8) and Istat (0.7).
“Much will depend on the first two quarters of next year, if growth is significantly below expectations we will be forced to intervene”, admit majority sources. A possible corrective measure could be: 15 billion euros, but it is only a preliminary estimate, and the government certainly does not intend to increase direct or indirect taxes, much less intervene on housing. The hypotheses being made are those of inevitable cuts in almost all departments, perhaps excluding only healthcare which is already in a disastrous situation and security.
What la scissors it could generally concern schools, universities, transport, justice and even defense (with a reduction in expenses to support Ukraine militarily and financial commitments with NATO). On the revenue front, obviously excluding VAT increases on basic necessities or capital goods so dear to the left, there could be new adjustments to the taxation on gaming and tobacco, as well as on some luxury goods without therefore directly affecting the middle class. Bass.
Excluding cuts to pensions, there could also be interventions on the single allowance with a cut for those with a particularly high ISEE. Hypotheses and scenarios that are made behind the scenes hoping that the Pil does not disappoint and that the corrective action is not necessary. But the fear is there and it is strong. One thing is certain: before the European elections no one in the majority will even remotely confirm this possibility, even if the opposition will make it the workhorse of the electoral campaign.
Italy must maintain the accounts as much as possible in orderdespite the partial elasticity of the new Stability Pact, so as not to lose the next installments of the Pnrr.
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