Source: Huachuang Futures Author: Huachuang Futures
Research report text
【white sugar】
logic:
Last Friday, the white sugar 2305 contract fluctuated strongly, with a closing price of 6142 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton, or 0.46%, from the settlement price of the previous trading day; among the top 20 futures company members of the exchange, most of the SR2305 contracts Single positions are 270,952 lots, short positions are 253,726 lots, and the long-short ratio is 1.07.
Due to the negative impact of the recent ban on pesticides, relevant agencies have lowered the production of the EU and the UK in 2023/24, India’s production in 2022/23 has fallen by 1% year-on-year, and there are still concerns about production reduction in the domestic market this season, supporting the market, but The thunder storm of European and American banks still has a certain impact on the market. In addition, the long funds on the disk have successively reduced their positions and left the market after making profits, so there is a possibility of a callback.
Under the interweaving of long and short factors, it is expected that the market will mainly operate in a short-term or volatile manner.
Trend view:It is recommended to wait and see.
【cotton】
logic:
Last Friday, CF2305, the main cotton futures contract, closed at 13,900 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton, or 0.89%, from the settlement price of the previous trading day.
In terms of spot goods, the domestic cotton spot prices have all weakened, and the supply of cotton is sufficient, but the market trading atmosphere is general, and downstream textile enterprises mostly pick up as they use. According to the data, as of the week of March 17, the weekly operating rate of weaving mills was 75.3%, which was a slight increase from the previous week (73.6%), and the number of days for spinning mills was 17.8 days, compared with the previous week (18.3 days). ) declined slightly.
In addition, the Credit Suisse crisis has once again triggered market concerns about the global banking system, and short-term sentiment may have a greater impact on the market.
In terms of positions, on March 17, among the top 20 futures company members of the exchange, the long positions of cotton 2305 contracts were about 337,100 lots, the short positions were about 365,600 lots, the long-short ratio was about 0.92, and the net long positions were about It was -28,500 lots.
On the whole, the supply of cotton is relatively loose. Although the operating rate of textile enterprises continues to rise, the overall performance of the downstream is not as good as that of the same period in previous years. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate and run weakly in the short term.
Trend view:It is recommended to wait and see or light storage rallies short empty.
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