CPI growth in 31 provinces and cities is stable and habitual consumption is returning to speed
Market Information Network 2022-12-19 16:54:53 Source: China Net Author: Fang Binnan and Lu Shanshan Comments:
On December 13, after the National Bureau of Statistics announced the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2022, 31 provincial and municipal statistics bureaus also released their own CPI. A reporter from Beijing Business Daily combed and found that in November, the CPI of 31 provinces and cities rose year-on-year. Among them, six places including Xinjiang, Chongqing, Tibet, Qinghai, Hubei, and Jiangsu were higher than 2%. From the point of view of the increase, only Hainan’s increase in November was higher than that in October. Industry analysts pointed out that with the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, habitual consumption will quickly return. It is expected that the CPI in December will likely rebound to slightly higher than 2%, and the annual CPI will probably be around 2%.
CPI rose by more than 2% in six places
A reporter from Beijing Business Daily combed through the CPI data of 31 provinces and cities and found that in November 2022, the CPI of 31 provinces and cities will all rise year-on-year, and 11 provinces and cities will have a growth rate higher than the national level (1.6%), and 15 provinces will be lower than the national level. , both figures were 12 in October.
Specifically, 11 provinces and cities including Xinjiang, Chongqing, Tibet, Qinghai, Hubei, Jiangsu, Yunnan, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, and Gansu have seen growth rates higher than the national level; Ningxia, Hunan, Fujian, Shanxi, and Shanghai have risen at the same level as the national level; 15 provinces and cities including Zhejiang, Guizhou, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Henan, Jilin, Tianjin, Hebei, Beijing, Liaoning, Hainan, and Shaanxi have seen growth rates below the national level.
It is worth noting that among the 31 provinces and cities, only 6 provinces and cities, including Xinjiang, Chongqing, Tibet, Qinghai, Hubei, and Jiangsu, had a CPI higher than 2% in November, which was 23 in the previous month. The number of provinces and cities whose year-on-year growth rate fell below 2% has changed from 8 to 25.
Zhao Honghe, a senior macro analyst at the Research and Development Center of China Merchants Securities, analyzed to the reporter of Beijing Business Daily that the level of inflation not only depends on the level of economic development, but also is affected by the relationship between supply and demand. In the past period of time, due to epidemic prevention and other factors in Xinjiang, Chongqing, Tibet, Qinghai and other places, material transportation and food supply may have been affected to a certain extent, thus keeping inflation at a relatively high level.
Only Hainan’s increase was higher than that in October
From the perspective of year-on-year growth, among the 31 provinces and cities, only Hainan’s CPI growth rate in November was higher than that of October, that is, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; Among them, Sichuan saw the largest drop of 1.1 percentage points.
Hong Tao, a professor at Beijing Technology and Business University, pointed out that this is directly related to the development of duty-free shops in Hainan during the China International Consumer Goods Expo. increase in CPI”.
In terms of the year-on-year decline in CPI growth in 30 provinces and cities in November, Hong Tao believes that the market activity can be seen from the CPI. In areas with high market activity, the CPI is relatively high. However, in the context of “Double 11” Under the circumstances, various activities of festive consumption have reduced the growth rate of CPI. The “Double 11” campaign started at the end of October and lasted from November 1st to November 11th, penetrating into the entire November. Therefore, “Double 11” subsidies, discounts and other activities have an important impact on the relative decline in the year-on-year increase in CPI in various regions in November .
“In addition, the net population inflow brought by winter tourism to Hainan also has a certain impact on the rise of its core CPI.” Zhao Honghe added. “Specifically in Beijing, Beijing has more tertiary industry activities, stronger supply guarantee capacity, correspondingly lower core inflation pressure, and less food inflation pressure. Therefore, although the economic level is at the top, the CPI in November only rose by 1.2% year-on-year. A decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.”
CPI may rebound in December
When talking about the CPI in December, the respondents agreed that the probability of a rebound in the CPI in December is relatively high.
From a statistical point of view, Zhao Honghe pointed out that due to the drop in the base last year and the recent rise in food prices, there is a high probability that the CPI in December will rebound to slightly higher than 2%, and the CPI for the whole year will probably be around 2%.
“As for the food CPI and non-food CPI in the first half of December, in the first half of December, the two items that had the greatest impact on the food CPI, vegetable prices, rose higher than seasonally, which may be related to the supply problems caused by the recent rise in the national epidemic situation. Related; Pork prices have continued their downward trend since November, and the current round of pig price upward cycle is likely to be coming to an end.” Zhao Honghe said, “Non-food CPI, from the perspective of residents’ offline activities, with the relaxation of epidemic prevention policies, since December There is a slight rebound, but the overall service industry demand is still weak, and the non-food CPI is not expected to rebound much for the time being.”
The agricultural product data from the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs supports Zhao Honghe’s point of view. From December 2nd to 8th, the price of pork decreased by 2.4% compared with last week, and rose by 30% year-on-year; the average price of 19 kinds of vegetables in the wholesale markets of 286 production and sales places across the country was 3.99. Yuan/kg, up 7.5% from last week and down 25% year-on-year.
On the whole, Hong Tao believes that my country’s grain “Nineteen Lianfeng” will reach a new high in 2022 with a total grain output of 1,373.1 billion catties, and the supply of major agricultural products is sufficient. Although consumption will be affected by epidemic prevention and control, my country’s CPI is generally moderate. With the gradual optimization of epidemic control, habitual consumption will quickly return, and its economic performance will inevitably be reflected in CPI prices. It is expected that the CPI will rebound in December, and the CPI for the whole year of 2022 will be around 2%, which is in stark contrast to the high inflation in the West.
Editor in charge: Niu Yuhang