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The German economy was hit particularly hard by the consequences of the Russian attack on Ukraine. High energy prices caused inflation to skyrocket in Germany in 2022. According to many economists, the development in the Ukraine war, energy prices and inflation will remain the most important factors of uncertainty for the economy in 2023. The economic forecasts are therefore likely to remain volatile.
Economists speak of a recession when a country’s economic output shrinks for two quarters in a row. In the fourth quarter of 2022, gross domestic product in Germany fell by 0.2 percent. Forecasts differ for the first quarter of 2023. An initial estimate from the Federal Statistical Office will only be available in a few weeks. Then it will be clear whether Germany fell into a technical recession in the winter months.
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The economic forecasts for Germany are currently changing very quickly. This reflects the great uncertainty as a result of the war in Ukraine and its aftermath. The latest forecasts by economic institutes assume that Germany will be spared a recession. However, growth in 2023 and 2024 is likely to be weak at best. The German economy is threatened with stagnation combined with persistent inflation.
Our table shows the most important forecasts for the economy for the current year 2023 and for 2024 – from the federal government, international organizations, economic research institutes, banks and associations. The economic forecasts relate to the change in gross domestic product (GDP). The arrows indicate whether the forecasts were last revised up or down. You can sort all columns in the top field of the table.
What are the economic forecasts for Germany?
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The German economy was hit particularly hard by the consequences of the Russian attack on Ukraine. High energy prices caused inflation to skyrocket in Germany in 2022. According to many economists, the development in the Ukraine war, energy prices and inflation will remain the most important factors of uncertainty for the economy in 2023. The economic forecasts are therefore likely to remain volatile.
Economists speak of a recession when a country’s economic output shrinks for two quarters in a row. In the fourth quarter of 2022, gross domestic product in Germany fell by 0.2 percent. Forecasts differ for the first quarter of 2023. An initial estimate from the Federal Statistical Office will only be available in a few weeks. Then it will be clear whether Germany fell into a technical recession in the winter months.
read too