It will be a Saturday of sadness and boredom for the cost of energy. On Saturday 1 October, the cost of electricity and gas will increase significantly for families and small businesses; it is the update with which every three months the Arera energy authority adjusts the consumer tariffs for greater protection to the costs. It will be the coldest season for the economy in recent decades, not only for families but also for businesses, for many of which annual contracts will expire on 30 September, for which renewal there is a worrying scarcity of offers.
For months already, consumers supplied by the free market with variable price contracts have fully felt the increases in energy prices, especially businesses and those two thirds of families who have abandoned the Arera tariffs to switch to free contracts.
In the update of 1 July, the Arera energy authority had managed to postpone the price increases for consumers in the protected segment by another three months. But now the tariffs can no longer hide too many months of the very expensive market.
Double hypothesis
How much will the increase bite for consumers still regulated by the protection? Impossible to say today, a week in advance. The president of the energy authority, Stefano Besseghini, had predicted a doubling months ago, but a lot will depend on the outcome of today’s vote and on the reassuring orientation that the next government will give after the electoral drunkenness.
The tariffs that protected consumers pay today are around 25 cents per kilowatt hour for electricity. Given the market trends and the recoveries to be made for the increases in recent months that have not yet entered the bill, it can be assumed that from October to December the electricity tariff will be between 40 and 50 cents per kilowatt hour. That is, the growth of electricity alone would be between 60% and 100%; the other items that make up the bill should remain fairly stable.