Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European foreign policy has not stood idly by.
In the last year the European Union has approved sanctions unprecedented, has relaunched theenlargementhe offered refugee protectionapproved billions in financial and military aid, and – in connection with the latter – mobilized the European Peace Facility as an evolving platform for procurement for EU defence. The diplomatic efforts of the Union regarding the war have also taken the form of a strengthening of transatlantic ties, of a diplomatic pressure on China and a projection towards the “Global South”.
In this sense, it would be unfair to criticize the Union for its inaction. Understandably, EU action has focused on the most devastating war on the continent since the Second World War. But this does not mean that the other corners of the European neighborhood are stable or not worthy of attention – a potentially explosive mix is brewing to the south.
Old and new conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa
Since the EU has existed, the Nord Africa and the Middle East they have never really been on the right track to achieving peace, prosperity and democracy. War, authoritarianism, human rights violations, terrorism and socio-economic injustice have been the norm for decades. And now even more turbulent times await us – Europe should pay much more attention.
After the Arab Spring, authoritarianism and repression have once again consolidated; civil wars – even if in decline – have given way not to reconciliation but to structural violence, while the risk of nuclear proliferation, considering the nuclear deal with Iran stalledhas never been so high.
With the exception of the ceasefire in Yemen and the Saudi-Iranian deal, the situation in the region has gone from bad to worse.
In Sudanhopes of a democratic transition after the end of the Bashir regime in 2019 dashed with the military coup two years after. Largely ignored by the international community, Sudan has now erupted into a spiral of violence between armed forces and paramilitariesbacked by regional powers such as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
In SyriaBashar al-Assad’s regime has stretto your mothersa, using for this purpose, in a sickening way, the tragedy of earthquake. In Libya, the UN-backed fact-finding mission reported a sharp deterioration in human rights, recording war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by armed militias, state security forces and the Libyan Coast Guard – supported in embarrassing way from the EU.
Simultaneously, throughout North Africa and the Sahel, the Russian paramilitary group Wagner represents a growing threat.
Tunisia and Israel: democracies in danger
Moreover, even the only two cases of democracies – however imperfect – are both joining the large group of authoritarian states.
The Tunisia, the last survivor of the Arab Spring, returned to authoritarianism in 2021, when President Kais Saied suspended and then dissolved parliament. Since then, instead of committing himself to recovering his country from its terrible economic situation, Saied has devoted all his energies to concentrating power in his own hands, meanwhile repressing political dissent, civil society, judicial independence and media freedom.
And as Saied’s popularity plummets, public disaffection mounts, economic growth and jobs languish, food shortages, inflation is rising, and the president refuses to sign a $1 bailout loan. 9 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Tunisia is now on the verge of political and economic collapse.
IsraelMeanwhile, long defended as “the only democracy in the Middle East”, now risks “normalizing” its presence in the region not only by establishing diplomatic ties with the Arab world, but by becoming more like it.
If the separation of powers ei check-and-balances in Israel were compromised as a result of the government’s proposed judicial reforms, the country would simply cease to be a liberal democracy. And while the relentless protests that have touched all corners of Israeli Jewish society signal its vitality, they are no guarantee that the reforms will be shelved – e hyear basically ignored the growing conflict with the Palestinians.
Indeed, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the threat to Israeli democracy are two sides of the same coin.
The proliferation of settler violencethe growing threats of population transfers, the increasingly rapid moves to revoke the citizenship and residency rights of Palestinians, the calls of the Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to clear the city of role modelthe creation of a national guard under National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and the recent Israeli police raid on the al-Aqsa mosque, which triggered a cycle of violence in the West Bank and Gazaas well as in Lebanon, are all linked to the judicial reforms under discussion.
The Israeli Supreme Court has never stopped, let alone reversed, Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories, but has nevertheless slowed it down on several occasions. And – together with the judicial vicissitudes of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the military duties of the Haredi ultra-Orthodox community – this is precisely the reason why the government wants to limit the power of the court. In other words, the attempt to accelerate the de facto annexation of the occupied territory is behind the renewed escalation of the conflict.
An old European division
All these developments are being watched by European leaders, some of them – such as the EU High Representative Joseph Borrell and the Commissioner Paul Gentiloni – are sounding alarm bells, especially with regard to Tunisia.
However, the effectiveness of European action is inhibited by an old divide recurring in new forms, as Eastern and Northern European countries focus exclusively on Ukraine and its offshoots, while Southern countries look south – but in the wrong way.
L’Italiafor example, seeks to shift the European spotlight to Tunisia, but does so by arguing that Brussels and the IMF should set aside reform requirements and funnel funds to the country regardless.
The reason is clear: alongside the increasingly strategic role played by Trans-Mediterranean pipeline transporting Algerian gas to Italy via Tunisia, Rome is terrified that the fall of Saied could open the door to new waves of migrants. And it is a tragic irony that it is Saied himself who has embraced a North African variant of the theory of “great replacement“, driving African migrants out of the country – even up north, towards Europe.
While the United States are increasingly aware of the crisis in the region, it is Europe that would actually have the capacity to contribute to reforms and reconciliation, especially in North Africa. But in doing so it must continue to bring in funding, while raising its voice on the spread of repression and violence, investing in communication to counter disinformation, as well as – and this is the most difficult problem for Europe to solve – finding the ability and courage to provide a significant security presence in the region.
This article was published on the POLITICO – Europe website on 11/04/2023
Cover photo EPA/MOHAMED MESSARA