(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – Waiting for inflation data in Europe and the United States advises prudence on the European stock exchanges, which are waiting for indications to understand what the next moves of the central banks might be. In the meantime, stock markets are preparing to close the month of March in the red, weighed down by the banking crises, while the quarterly balance will be positive for the second consecutive period. On the macro front, as far as the euro area is concerned, inflation is expected to fall to around 7% in March, after 8.5% in February, above all due to the drop in energy prices. Core inflation, on the other hand, may show no signs of slowing down. PCE inflation will then come from the USA, the data preferred by the Federal Reserve, which should show a slight slowdown, but will always remain at levels very far from the target of the US central bank.
In Piazza Affari, the FTSE MIB thus moves around parity, in line with the other main continental indices. Among the Milanese titles, Telecom Italia and Moncler stand out, while Diasorin returns to lose share.
On bonds, the spread between the BTp and the Bund rose slightly. The yield differential between the 10-year benchmark BTP and the same German maturity stands at 186 basis points, compared to 185 at Thursday’s closing. The yield on ten-year BTPs also grew, reaching 4.23% from 4.22% on the previous day.
Euro remains above 1.09 dollars, little moved oil
On the foreign exchange front, the euro defends its positions above the 1.09 dollar level and is worth 1.0904 from 1.0908 at Thursday’s close. The single currency is also indicated at 145.13 yen (from 144.75), while the dollar/yen ratio is at 133.11 (132.70). As far as the energy market is concerned, the price of oil showed little change: the May future on the Wti marks -0.01% at 74.36 dollars a barrel, while the same contract on Brent drops 0.26% at $79.06. The price of natural gas on the Amsterdam TTF platform rose by 0.9% to 43.9 euros per megawatt hour.
Tokyo closes at a three-week high
The Tokyo Stock Exchange, meanwhile, returned to its highest closing level in three weeks after regaining confidence with Wall Street’s gains on Thursday, as worries about the banking sector continued to dissipate. The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.93% to 28,041.48 points and gained 2.4% over the past week overall; it also closed above 28,000 points for the first time since March 10. The Topix index gained 1.02% to 2,003.50 points. The declining yen, favorable to the exchange rate for Japanese export bonds, also provided support to the Tokyo market.