In the face of growing concerns about the financial stability of the Tunisia and the increase of departures of migrants to Europe, the institutions of the European Union (EU) and the Member States are struggling to define new forms of cooperation, conditionality or assistance to be adopted in relations with the Tunisian authorities. Faced with the difficult situation of having to involve Tunisia without supporting further trends of authoritarian consolidation, the main member states have expressed their support for an emergency economic support package of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Although the recent commitment reflects the EU’s constant concern for the management of migratory flows, European politics cannot lose sight of the democratic regression underway in the country since 2021 and the need for socio-economic and political structural reforms.
In this context, the Istituto Affari Internazionali organized a online seminar entitled “Re-Framing EU-Tunisia Relations”, to discuss the present and future dynamics of EU-Tunisia relations, explore possible long-term solutions and offer a comprehensive overview of the political, economic and governance challenges facing Tunisia, redefining at the same time the European narratives about the country. The meeting hosted Tarek MegerisiSenior Policy Fellow presso lo European Council on Foreign Relations; Alissa Pavia, Associate Director for North Africa at the Atlantic Council; And Riccardo FabianiDirector of the North Africa project at the Crisis Group.
The alleged dilemma of the EU between stability and democracy
The EU’s approach seems to be based on the belief that it is imperative and urgent stabilize the situation in Tunisia, even at the risk of compromising the democratic transition that the country had undertaken. From this point of view, the choice to rely on the President Kais Saied is dictated by the assumption that his leadership can contribute to the stabilization of the country both from an economic-financial point of view and in the commitment to combat the migration phenomenon towards Europe.
However, as pointed out by Tarek Megerisi, this perspective only takes into account the Saied policy seems to be focused solely on his messianic mission aimed at fix the revolution. Although he claims to want to restore democracy and voice the will of the people, his own actions demonstrate an alarming disregard for democratic principles, systematically rejecting fundamental freedoms and the rule of law when they oppose his agenda. Although his project initially attracted the support of the populace, it eventually turned against them, including those who were once his closest allies, by engaging in a vast campaign of sweeping arrests against political opponents, judges, journalists and representatives of civil society.
Ultimately, Saied does not have the necessary skills to run the state effectively. L’absence of a political project clear explains erratic political decisions based on conspiracies rather than clear strategies for solving the country’s problems, making his actions extremely unpredictable.
EU trust in Saied as guarantor of stability in Tunisia thus appears misplaced. The lack of expertise, the absence of a coherent political agenda, the relentless witch hunt to target dissent and scapegoat the country’s problems, and the decline in popular support for the President suggest that relying on the Saied’s current trajectory means betting on a increase in unrest and unpredictability.
The myth of the IMF agreement as a panacea
Alissa Pavia highlights how Tunisia’s economic problems, aggravated by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, include a spiraling budget deficitand’inflation rampant and a severe shortage of basic necessities, such as food and fuel.
In the context of the current economic crisis Tunisia, Italy shows strong conviction that a financial aid plan alone can stabilize the country, curb migration and address the main socio-economic problems. However, a deeper analysis reveals one greater complexity of the situation.
In 2022 the Tunisian government and the International Monetary Fund announced that they had reached a preliminary agreement for a loan – the third in 10 years – of 1.9 billion dollars to support the country’s economy. However, as underlined by Riccardo Fabiani, the unpredictability of President Kais Saied, epitomized by his unexpected refusal to accept the conditions of the IMF, adds political and social costs to any potential deal.
Fabiani suggests that, while it is true that IMF conditionalities could have a disproportionate negative impact on the population, a scenario of no-deal it would not necessarily lead to a complete collapse similar to the situation in Lebanon. Indeed, the Tunisian economy has limited exposure to international financial flows and most of the external debt is held by multilateral organizations or by international creditors, which reduces the risk of a banking collapse.
Challenging as it is, what could emerge from a no-deal scenario would be a manageable situation, potentially supported by emergency financing and liquidity measures during the restructuring negotiations, Fabiani argues. There debt restructuring, which could lead to a discount on Tunisia’s external debt, if desired, can also incentivize desired behaviors on the part of Saied, such as the dismantling of vigilante groups and the protection of minorities. Ultimately, according to Fabiani, Europe and the international community must be prepared for all possible outcomes and ready to offer assistance in a enhanced coordinationin order to bridge different interests and at the same time find partnerships with key regional actors in crisis management.
The false concern of the alleged Russian and Chinese threat
There is widespread belief that the failure to rescue Tunisia will bring the country closer to Chinese and to Russia. However, the considerations that emerged in the meeting suggest that, despite President Saied’s attempts to woo both Beijing and Moscow, the appeal of a substantial commitment by these capitals remains questionable.
According to Megerisi, for example, the current global context suggests that Russia is busy with other, more pressing issues. As for China, its investment approach is mainly based on money-back guarantees and insuring valuable assets as collateral. Currently, Tunisia’s financial difficulties are not in line with the investment preferences of China, which then publicly clarified that the agreement with the IMF is the only way out of the risk of default in Tunis.
On the other hand, as Pavia observes, Western countries, especially the EU, should be more concerned about the potential failure of the democratic transition of Tunisia. Having invested significantly in the country’s democratization efforts, they should prevent a failed transition from undermining their international narrative that fledgling democracies can succeed with adequate support.
Uncertain future scenarios and necessary reforms
According to the speakers, the future scenarios for Tunisia are uncertain. While one tends to imagine catastrophic implosions and explosive protests, a more modest but equally impactful outcome could unfold. The worsening economy and President Saied’s inability to address pressing socio-economic issues could lead to a higher pressure on the part of the Tunisians for a solution, Megerisi said. However, the lack of political opposition it is an issue that can limit opportunities for meaningful change, as it hinders the emergence of alternative trajectories.
In the light of recent developments, it is essential to reassess theEU transactional approach aimed at buying the favor of the Mediterranean neighbor to prevent migrants from reaching the Italian coasts. In fact, Pavia draws attention to how Saied’s fluctuating conduct and the alarming statements linking sub-Saharan migrants to the theory of ethnic substitution have punctually intensified departures towards Italy. Rather than helping Tunisia detain migrants, he added, it is crucial to condemn such claims. Only by supporting Tunisia’s democratic transition can the EU foster an environment where people are likely to stay in for the long term.
Instead of focusing on policing and control, it is urgent to realize that the lack of a political vision for one socio-economic reform in the long term and the departure from the democratic transition will not only worsen Tunisia’s financial prospects, but will further destabilize the country and increase migratory flows across the Mediterranean.
Cover photo EPA/TUNISIAN PRESIDENCY HANDOUT