Experts look forward to the world economy in 2024. China will still be the main driving force of global economic recovery.
The global COVID-19 pandemic will usher in a turning point in 2023, but the global economy is still suffering from the “sequelae” of the epidemic. Looking forward to 2024, what opportunities and challenges will global development face? Recently, the 170th “Economic Monthly Talk” of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges was held to take stock of the world economy since the COVID-19 epidemic, clarify the context and provide suggestions for global development in 2024.
Recently, 2024 macroeconomic outlook reports from a number of international institutions have been released, in which “global economic development will slow down” has become one of the main consensuses. In this regard, Zhu Guangyao, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and former Vice Minister of Finance, said that the global multilateral cooperation mechanism has not recovered due to the impact of the epidemic, especially the unilateralism of the United States, which makes it difficult for the global economy to enter a full recovery in the post-epidemic era of fast-paced tracks.
Wang Yiming, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and Director of the Academic Committee, said that looking back on the first 10 years of this century, the rapid growth of the global economy, the continuous improvement of the supply chain system, and the acceleration of globalization are inseparable. Globalization is currently facing countercurrents, trade protection and unilateralism are intensifying, and the so-called “decoupling” operations promoted by the United States and other Western countries will intensify the fragmentation of the global economy, making the global economic recovery slow and uneven, and further increasing uncertainty.
“China and the United States should implement the consensus reached at the San Francisco meeting to the letter, which is of great significance to repairing multilateralism mechanisms and promoting global economic and trade recovery.” Zhu Guangyao said that the current booming development of artificial intelligence has greatly promoted the fourth industrial revolution. , has become a major trend in the future development of the global economy. The international community urgently needs to reach a consensus on relevant policy frameworks and governance arrangements. However, some US politicians are currently extremely short-sighted on this issue and are vigorously suppressing China in fields such as chips and artificial intelligence, which is hindering global cooperation in this field.
Chen Wenling, chief economist and deputy director of the Executive Board of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, focused on analyzing the new risks that the adjustment of U.S. monetary policy will bring to the global economy in 2024. She said that the “historic” monetary tightening cycle in the United States may come to an end. When the U.S. monetary policy will turn to easing in the new year and whether it will cause liquidity to flood again is a question that the whole world needs to be vigilant about.
Chen Wenling also said that the U.S. debt crisis and financial risks have caused more and more countries to question the credit of the U.S. dollar. Currently, the total U.S. national debt has exceeded $33 trillion. According to the budget outlook of the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. national debt will nearly double in the next 30 years. “De-dollarization” will likely become a major development trend in the future, and the world‘s monetary system will usher in major changes.
Recently, many international organizations and international business institutions have raised their growth forecasts, casting a “vote of confidence” in China’s economy. The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2023 from 5% to 5.4%, and also raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 by 0.4 percentage points to 4.6%.
Zhu Guangyao said that China’s economic recovery has exceeded the expectations of the international community. These international institutions have a solid factual basis for raising their expectations. In the first three quarters of 2023, the results of my country’s macroeconomic policy combination continued to show, and the economic recovery continued to consolidate, with GDP growing by 5.2% year-on-year. Entering the fourth quarter of 2023, my country’s macro economy continues to recover and improve. Expectations of international institutions have generally been raised, indicating that the international community still believes that China is the largest engine of global economic growth.
Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said that the overall situation of my country’s economic development since the epidemic has been relatively good. The current favorable conditions for my country’s development are still stronger than the unfavorable factors. The basic trend of economic recovery and long-term improvement has not been Change. What we are facing are problems in progress and troubles in development. China’s economic development prospects are still very bright, and it will continue to bring sufficient confidence and confidence to the global economic recovery. (Economic Daily reporter Yang Xiaolin)