Original title: Foreign trade increased by 22.7% in the first three quarters, international bulk commodity prices pushed up imports, and exports of high value-added products increased significantly
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on October 13, the total value of China’s import and export of goods in the first three quarters was 28.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.7% over the same period last year. Among them, exports were 15.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.7%; imports were 12.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.6%. Compared with the same period in 2019, China’s foreign trade imports and exports, exports and imports increased by 23.4%, 24.5% and 22% respectively.
China’s imports and exports have achieved positive year-on-year growth for five consecutive quarters, but the year-on-year growth rates of China’s imports and exports in the first, second, and third quarters of this year were 29.7%, 25.2%, and 15.2%, respectively, showing a gradual decline.
On the one hand, since the long-term economic fundamentals have not changed, the development trend of steady and qualitative increases in foreign trade volume is well supported. On the other hand, the global epidemic is fluctuating, the world economy is struggling to recover, and the external environment has become more complex and severe. China’s foreign trade development is facing the impact of high international shipping prices, increased fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, rising commodity prices, and high employment costs in some regions.
Li Kuiwen, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Statistical Analysis Department, said that considering the impact of the high base of foreign trade in 2020, the growth rate of imports and exports in the fourth quarter of this year may fall, but the overall upward trend of foreign trade will not change. Still expected to achieve rapid growth.
The scale of import and export continues to increase
According to Li Kuiwen’s analysis, the current factors supporting China’s foreign trade growth are, first of all, the continuous recovery of the domestic economy and the continuous effects of the national foreign trade policy of stabilizing growth.
Secondly, the global economy and trade have picked up, and the increase in international market demand is good for China’s exports. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of China’s exports to the United States, the European Union, and Africa all exceeded 20%, and the growth rate of exports to Latin America exceeded 40%. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will grow by 5.9% in 2021, and the World Trade Organization predicts that the global trade in goods will increase by 10.8% this year.
In addition, he emphasized that rising international commodity prices have become an important factor pushing up the value of imports. As of mid-October, the Reuters CRB Index, which reflects the prices of bulk commodities in the international market, has risen by more than 40% from the end of last year, and by more than 130% from the lowest point last year.
At the same time, Li Kuiwen pointed out that although the scale of quarterly imports and exports has increased quarter by quarter, the growth rate has gradually declined. The total value of imports and exports in the first, second, and third quarters of this year were 8.51 trillion, 9.59 trillion, and 10.23 trillion, respectively, up 29.7%, 25.2%, and 15.2% year-on-year.
In an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald, Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, analyzed that foreign trade companies did not resume work and production due to the epidemic at the beginning of the year, lowering the overall base. After the resumption of work and production in the second quarter, there was a lack of orders until the third quarter. It was basically restored. Generally speaking, although the scale of import and export is “stepping up”, the base effect has led to a “slowing down” of foreign trade growth.
On a monthly basis, imports and exports in September increased by 15.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 3.5 percentage points from August.
“The pressure on foreign trade in September was particularly prominent.” Bai Ming pointed out that in September, foreign trade was under pressure from the continuous increase in shipping and logistics prices, corporate power curtailment and production restrictions, fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate, and rising raw material prices, which led to a slowdown in growth. slow. At the same time, taking into account the impact of the high base of foreign trade in 2020, he predicted that the growth rate of imports and exports in the fourth quarter of this year may fall.
Commodity imports decrease and prices rise
In response to the tight supply and demand of electric power and coal, some major foreign trade provinces had problems with power cuts, shutdowns and production restrictions in September. Li Kuiwen responded that he has paid attention to relevant information and also noticed the increase in raw material prices, including energy products. Condition. Regarding the impact of these situations on China’s foreign trade imports and exports, we are continuing to observe, pay attention and analyze them.
Bai Ming believes that it is too far-fetched to view power curtailment and production restriction as “a big move to compete for foreign trade pricing power”, but some foreign trade companies may miss the order delivery period due to power curtailment and production restriction, which will affect the stability of orders in the next quarter. At the same time, under the influence of the coal-electricity linkage price mechanism, electricity curtailment has inevitably caused fluctuations in coal prices.
According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to September, the country imported 23.396 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, and the cumulative import value was 136.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%.
In addition to coal, some commodity imports have also seen volume reductions and price increases. In the first three quarters of this year, China’s imported freight volume was 2.43 billion tons, a decrease of 0.5%. Affected by the rise in international commodity prices, import prices rose by 11.3% year-on-year. Among them, the average import price of iron ore, crude oil, and copper increased. Both exceed 30%.
Specifically, imported iron ore was 842 million tons, a decrease of 3%, and the average price was 1159.8 yuan per ton, an increase of 67.5%; crude oil was 387 million tons, a decrease of 6.8%, and the average price was 3082.5 yuan per ton, an increase of 32.8%; copper 4.019 million Tons, a decrease of 19.5%, and an average price of 60,400 yuan per ton, an increase of 37.9%.
Li Kuiwen pointed out that since the second half of last year, the prices of some commodities in the international market have shown a trend of rapid increase due to the recovery of global economic and trade demand from the epidemic, quantitative easing of global liquidity, and the adoption of strong fiscal and financial stimulus policies by some developed economies. And the combined influence of many factors such as speculation.
Bai Ming told the 21st Century Business Herald that the continuous and substantial increase in global commodity prices is the result of many factors such as limited supply and excess liquidity. The volume reduction and price increase of bulk commodity imports indicate that China is currently less dependent on bulk commodities. Through industrial restructuring, domestic companies are gradually adapting to changes in bulk commodity prices and reacting more actively to prices.
At the same time, he took iron ore as an example. Although the price has risen, it is only about half of the highest price last year, which is still relatively low.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Markets Department of Everbright Bank, said that the high prices of some commodities and the tight global energy supply may have spillover effects on global production and foreign trade, but the strong performance of foreign trade eased the pressure of slowing domestic demand to a certain extent. The economy continued to operate in the third quarter. Within a reasonable range, due to the base effect in the fourth quarter, the prices of some commodities were operating at a high level. Domestic imports may continue to show a trend of volume decrease and price increase, but the slowdown is expected to be moderate.
Shipping prices are high, and exports of high value-added products increase
Li Kuiwen said at the meeting that due to the rebound of the overseas epidemic, some overseas ports have been seriously congested, the international logistics supply chain is not smooth, the efficiency of ship operation and the empty container turnover rate have dropped sharply, which has led to the tightness of related routes and the imbalance of supply and demand. Recently, relevant departments A lot of work has been done to ease the tight capacity situation.
The container freight index of the Shanghai Air Exchange shows that China’s export container freight index rose by 51.15 points compared with the previous period to close at 3271.70 points, which set a new record high. In May last year, the index was less than 850 points.
Bai Ming said that the substantial price increase in the foreign trade shipping market has a significant inhibitory effect on low-value-added products in foreign trade. Traditional export products that originally relied on small profits but quicker sales are gradually being eliminated by high freight rates.
According to data released by Li Kuiwen, in the first three quarters, China exported 9.15 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 23%, which was 0.3% higher than the overall export growth rate and accounted for 58.8% of the total export value. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts, mobile phones, and automobiles increased by 12%, 14.4%, and 107%, respectively. Pharmaceutical materials and medicines grew by 108%, while exports of labor-intensive products only grew by 9.5%.
According to Bai Ming’s analysis, the high added value of automobiles, medicines and other products has overcome the adverse effects of rising shipping prices. In contrast, parts and components with lower added value and labor-intensive products have been severely impacted. The country’s epidemic is under control, and export orders for low-value-added products will be further transferred.
Earlier, Gao Feng, spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, stated at a regular press conference that the phenomenon of tight capacity and high freight rates is global. The Ministry of Commerce, together with the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the General Administration of Market Supervision, have actively taken measures to increase container supply, increase shipping capacity, and strengthen international cooperation. Local governments have also increased their shipping service guarantees for small and medium-sized enterprises to help them reduce costs and losses.
Bai Ming pointed out that shipping giants such as CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd have made it clear that they will not further increase the market spot freight rates in the next few months. To be alleviated to a certain extent, blind investment will inevitably lead to excess capacity.
(Author: Jia Yifei, Xia Xutian Editor: Bao Fangming)