The possibility that the West would impose an embargo on Russian oil and gas immediately knocked out the ruble, slipping to the new all-time low against the dollar, at 131, down about 8%, according to data from Refinitiv. . On the EBS trading platform, the ruble weakened to 141 against the greenback. The Moscow stock exchange remains closed even today, and should remain closed until Wednesday.
Brent oil jumped a step from $ 140 a barrel, to $ 139.13 during trading in Asian markets, a record since July 2008, with a + 20% rally, which then more than halved over the course of the year. hours.
The contract is now up around 3.7% to around $ 120.19. WTI also advanced by around 4.52%, to around $ 123.50, after flying up to $ 130.50, again its highest since 2008.
The Guardian posted the comment posted from his Twitter account by @ AgatheDemarais????????, Global Forecasting Director at The Economist Intelligence Unit (The EIU):
“Russia, he wrote, has entered its fourth financial crisis of the past 25 years; sanctions imposed on Russia’s central bank mean that Moscow will not be able to support the ruble, which is in free fall; Russia will suffer a double-digit recession. this year, probably worse than that of 1998, but less strong than that of 1992 “.
Yesterday, in an interview with CNN’s “State of The Union”, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken admitted that the United States and its allies are considering the possibility of an embargo.
“We are now speaking with our European partners and allies to consider a coordinated way to ban Russian oil imports, ensuring that there is still an appropriate supply of oil on global markets,” he said.
Not only. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi wrote in a letter to US Democrats that the House of Representatives is “considering a strong bill” to ban the import of Russian oil. A move, Pelosi added, that “would further isolate Russia from the global economy” following its attack on Ukraine.
Last week JP Morgan announced that it expects Russia’s GDP to fall by 35% in the second quarter of this year, and to fall by 7% for the whole of 2022.
“Russia’s GDP will report a loss from its peak to the lowest point that will touch, approximately 12%, from -10% in 1998, to -11% in 2008 (the year in which the global financial crisis exploded) and at -9% caused by the Covid-19 shock “, reads the note to customers written by Anatoliy Shal, strategist of JPMorgan, reported by the Reuters agency.
JP Morgan expects a drop in exports of around 13% this year, a contraction in domestic demand of around 10% and a drop in imports of -30%.