The decline in gas consumption in Italy continues compared to the performance of previous years. In January, volumes stopped at 7.5 billion cubic meters: 22% less than in the same month of 2022. A contraction in line with a trend that has continued since September. After the outbreak of the energy crisis in the summer, the slowdown in consumption has become evident. While in the first part of 2022 the trend in demand was similar to the previous year, later the difference became more marked: compared to the same period of 2021, in fact in September 2022 the drop was 17%, in October by 24%, in November by 27%, in December by 24%. In general, in 2022 Italy consumed less natural gas than in 2021: 68.5 billion cubic meters against 76 in the previous year, with a drop of 10%.
A decline that cannot be explained only by the climate
«From the January numbers, which should also be confirmed by the February balance sheet, the most evident aspect is the collapse in gas demand», explains Davide Tabarelli, president of Nomisma Energia, who continues: «Such a contraction cannot be explained only in milder weather. Nor is a sudden efficiency improvement of both domestic and industrial plants conceivable. The most likely hypothesis is that people have cut consumption. Along with a decline in economic activity currently hidden by rising prices. When the trend to reduce consumption is so pronounced it could lead to a recession.
Production: +7%
As far as national gas production is concerned, January saw a rise of 7%, with 279 million cubic meters extracted against 262 in the previous year, even if a single month may not be enough to think about the long term. However, 2022 closed with 3.3 billion cubic meters of gas produced, a slight decrease (-0.8%) compared to 2021. «We have been working since the end of 2021 to implement national production, and it is not nothing happened yet. Let’s hope this growth is a start. Looking ahead, we would reach 3.5 billion cubic meters by the end of the year: it is always an all-time low», Tabarelli points out again.
The “problem” of high stocks
The president of Nomisma Energia also underlines an unprecedented aspect for the Italian gas balance: stocks remain very high. In January, 1.9 billion cubic meters were affected, against 3.2 in January 2022. This is a drop of 38%, also in line with the contractions of recent months: -34% in December, -54% in November. «We will almost certainly reach the end of the winter season at around 50%: it is an exceptional event that demonstrates how long the market is. And it leads to a technical problem, linked to geology: to fill the storages it is first necessary to empty them. A fact that is worrying traders who look to the future: there could be a problem of excess supply that will make the price of gas drop even more (yesterday in Amsterdam it closed at 41.9 euros per MWh, ndr). We recall that Italy has the most important storage in Europe. We have gone from a short-market situation to over-excessive. A great uncertainty remains», continues Tabarelli.
Russia remains important supplier
Finally, the January balance shows how the quantity of gas imported from Russia is recovering with 794 million cubic meters, while in December they were 732 (-75% compared to the same month in 2021), in November 472 (-78%) and in October 322 (-86%). The decrease compared to January 2022 is 53.7%. If in 2022 we imported 14 billion cubic meters against 29 in 2021 (-52%), despite everything, «Russia basically remains Italy’s second supplier, after Algeria», concludes the president of Nomisma Energia.