On January 17, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. At the meeting, it was reported that the preliminary calculation shows that the annual gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 will exceed 121 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. Many foreign media said that this data is higher than the international community’s previous expectations, and optimistically predict that China will make an important contribution to the recovery of the world economy.
Screenshot of the US Consumer News and Business Channel report
The US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) reported on January 17 that China’s 2022 annual GDP growth rate was 3.0% over the previous year, exceeding the previous forecast of Reuters, including a 2.9% increase in the fourth quarter. Much higher than the 1.8% forecast by Reuters. The report emphasized that the performance of the pharmaceutical industry is a bright spot. In December 2022, the retail sales of Chinese and Western medicines will increase by nearly 40% year-on-year. The report also noted that in 2022, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size will increase by 3.6% over the previous year, of which the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.3% in December, far exceeding the 0.2% predicted by Reuters. In addition, the national fixed asset investment in 2022 will increase by 5.1% year-on-year, which is also higher than Reuters’ expectations.
CNBC pointed out in another report released on the 16th that with the optimization and adjustment of China’s epidemic prevention policy and the recent emergence of a large number of positive data, economists are raising their expectations for the global economic outlook. According to reports, Barclays Bank of the United Kingdom raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 by 0.5 percentage points last week. The forecast for economic growth was raised by 1 percentage point.
The US “Foreign Exchange Street” website issued an article on the 17th stating that China’s economic activities have exceeded market expectations in an all-round way. Economists generally believe that the current signal sent by China is very clear. Strong rebound. Based on the latest GDP data and the recovery of high-frequency indicators of economic activities such as subway and domestic flight passenger flow, the article holds positive expectations for China’s GDP growth in the first half of 2023. The author analyzed that over the past three years, Chinese households have accumulated substantial savings. “When Chinese consumers start to spend, it will have a major role in promoting global growth, commodities and China’s stock market.”
Screenshot of the article on the ING think tank website
The ING Think website published an article on January 17 stating that China’s total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2022 was much higher than the think tank’s expectations, and the considerable growth was mainly reflected in the food and pharmaceutical fields, which increased by 10.5% and 39.8% year-on-year respectively. . Think tank analysis believes that China’s social consumer goods retail sales in the first quarter of 2023 will be stronger.
The article pointed out that China’s fixed asset investment will increase by 5.1% year-on-year in 2022. Among them, investment in electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, which is a leading indicator of economic growth, will increase by 42.6% year-on-year. The article concluded that due to China’s economic growth at the end of 2022 was better than the think tank’s expectations, and the retail market showed positive signs, the think tank raised its forecast for China’s GDP growth rate in 2023 and said that China’s economic development prospects are promising.
Screenshot of the Associated Press report
The Associated Press (AP) also paid close attention to China’s economic report card in 2022. The Associated Press reported that with the optimization and adjustment of China’s epidemic prevention policy, the consumer market is gradually recovering.
The report quoted the views of several economists: Louise Loo, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, said in a report that “signs (of China’s economy) have stabilized, which is good news”; Goldman Sachs Group economist Andrew Tilton (Andrew Tilton) pointed out in a related report that “China’s reopening is expected to drive strong economic growth in the next year.” According to the report, Goldman Sachs recently raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2023 from 4.5% to 5.2%.
The report also mentioned that the risk of economic recession in the West has risen, and the global supply chain is facing greater challenges, while the strong recovery of the Chinese economy will boost confidence in the global supply chain. (Wang Luping and Lu Qianyuan)