Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, January 18th(International Observation)Invaluable and bright prospects – China’s economic annual report attracts global attention
Xinhua News Agency reporter
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, according to preliminary calculations, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) will exceed 120 trillion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Overseas public opinion and observers believe that in the face of unexpected impacts, the Chinese economy has withstood the pressure and continued to develop, with a growth rate stronger than expected, laying the foundation for faster and stronger growth in the future. It is expected that China’s economic growth in 2023 will continue to exceed previous consensus expectations, and inject greater confidence and strength into the recovery of the world economy.
Facing difficulties, the overall positive trend remains unchanged
“Precious” is the general feeling of many institutions and overseas people about the 2022 China Economic Annual Report.
This year, China’s economy has been impacted by multiple unexpected factors such as the spread of the new crown epidemic. The triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations continues to evolve. The complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the development environment have increased. Against this background, China’s total economic volume has exceeded 120 trillion yuan, the total volume of trade in goods has exceeded 40 trillion yuan, consumer prices have maintained a moderate rise, and economic growth has been faster than most major economies.
Cai Weicai, senior vice president of Thailand’s Kaitai Bank, said that the world economy is generally sluggish, major economies are expected to rise in recession, and external demand has shrunk significantly; the development of epidemics in many places in China has impacted consumption and the service industry. It is commendable for the Chinese economy to achieve a growth rate of 3% under such difficult circumstances, and it has fully demonstrated its resilience and potential.
Hernan Bergstein, a professor of economics at the University of Buenos Aires in Argentina, pointed out that if we broaden our horizons to the three years from 2020 to 2022, from a global perspective, China’s economic growth performance is remarkable. This reflects the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy.
Michael Schuman, chairman of the German Federal Association for Economic Development and Foreign Trade, said that the Chinese economy is capable of overcoming the current structural challenges and is expected to fully recover in 2023.
ING pointed out that due to the growth in sales of food, beverages, pharmaceuticals and automobiles, even in the face of the challenge of the epidemic, China’s retail sales of consumer goods in December last year still exceeded expectations, which means that consumption in the first quarter of 2023 is expected to be stronger.
This is the exterior scene of the second China International Consumer Goods Fair. (Photographed by Xinhua News Agency reporter Guo Cheng)
The Citigroup report believes that the market resilience reflected in China’s retail sales data is worth noting. Meanwhile, the government’s fiscal policy support has further boosted growth.
Xia Huasheng, an associate professor of international finance at the University of Vargas Foundation in Brazil, said that last year, major economies in the world entered into a cycle of interest rate hikes, and China lowered the financing costs of the real economy by cutting interest rates and slowing down interest rates, reducing the burden on market players.
Prospects are bright, growth is expected to be faster and earlier
Looking forward to the prospects of China’s economic growth in 2023, it has become the consensus of many overseas institutions to achieve “faster and earlier” recovery.
This month, the World Bank released the latest “Global Economic Prospects” report, which lowered the world economic growth forecast in 2023 to 1.7%. Among them, the U.S. economic growth forecast was downgraded by 1.9 percentage points to 0.5%, which was the worst year except for the 1970 recession. Eurozone economic growth forecast was downgraded by 1.9 percentage points to zero growth.
However, well-known financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, UBS, BlackRock, and Citigroup have raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2023, believing that optimizing and adjusting epidemic prevention policies will help China’s economy recover faster.
Borger Brende, president of the World Economic Forum, said that despite short-term challenges, China’s optimized and adjusted epidemic prevention policies “will bring about stronger growth.”
Chetan Ashiya, chief Asia economist at Morgan Stanley, said that important liquidity indicators such as traffic passenger volume across China have rebounded significantly. At the same time, through the synergistic resonance effect of fiscal policy, monetary policy and epidemic prevention policy, China’s current macro policies continue to anchor market expectations and boost growth prospects for the whole year.
On January 16, the staff carried out disinfection operations in the train. (Photographed by Xinhua News Agency reporter Wang Xiang)
Kiyoyuki Seguchi, research director of Japan’s Canon Global Strategy Research Institute, believes that China’s economic growth in 2023 will be stronger than previously expected, and the outside world is full of expectations for the development of new energy-related industries such as electric vehicles in China. As China continues to improve its business environment, foreign-funded enterprises will continue to increase investment in China.
Highly anticipated global attention China’s contribution
“Extremely important!” Georgieva, President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), recently described the world significance of China’s economic recovery prospects, saying that this will be “the most important factor affecting global growth in 2023.”
“Washington Post” believes that when the development engines of developed economies such as the United States, Japan, and the European Union are stalled, the gradual recovery of China’s economic vitality will help prevent the world economy from falling into recession.
Alicia García-Herrero, an economist at Natixis Bank, predicts that in the context of the slowdown in the growth of other major economies, if the pace of China’s economic recovery meets optimistic expectations, China’s contribution to world economic growth in 2023 will It may be around 50%.
On January 13, at the port of Lianyungang, Jiangsu, a batch of domestically produced cars were waiting to be shipped and exported overseas (drone photo). (Published by Xinhua News Agency, photo by Geng Yuhe)
The world‘s expectations of China’s economy are reflected in the capital market, consumer market, commodity market and supply chain.
Foreign investors have high hopes for China’s capital market in 2023. Bloomberg reported that following the approval of companies under Fidelity International and Neuberger Marshall to conduct fund business in China, global asset management companies such as the Fanta Group of the United States have submitted relevant business license applications to Chinese regulators.
This month, China has resumed its citizens’ outbound tourism in an orderly manner, which has made the tourism circles of all countries look forward to it. Julia Simpson, President and CEO of the World Travel and Travel Council, said that Chinese tourists will inject momentum into the recovery of the global tourism industry, and the global tourism industry will usher in rapid growth in the next decade.
Li Xingyu, executive director of the Socio-Economic Research Center of the Malaysian Chinese Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said rising demand from China would help boost energy and commodity prices. Global inflationary pressures are expected to ease as Chinese supply chains become smoother.
Coleman, Secretary-General of the OECD, believes that in the medium and long term, China’s optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention policies will help the supply chain to operate more efficiently, thereby easing global inflation, which will have a “very positive” impact.