The UK needs eleven times the annual heat pump installations to reach the government’s 2028 sales target. 600,000 devices will then be installed every year. In 2022, the most recent year for which figures are available, just 55,168 devices were sold. Installations are not systematically recorded.
Despite this significant gap, ministers continue to rely on “very optimistic assumptions about the development of consumer demand,” the British National Audit Office (NAO) warned in a recent study. Without a dramatic expansion in the sale of the devices, the goals cannot be achieved – and therefore the desired reduction in greenhouse gas emissions cannot be achieved.
“The government has some important questions to answer about how it will decarbonise heating in buildings,” said Simon Bittlestone, director of best use of resources at the NAO. Around 18 percent of greenhouse gas emissions in the UK come from residential heating.
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Gas boilers are used for this in over 80 percent. The energy balance is made even worse by the condition of the buildings. A large part of the real estate stock is getting old and the building insulation in the country is considered to be one of the worst in Europe.
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In order to achieve the legally stipulated goal of zero net CO₂ emissions by 2050, almost all 28 million households in the country will have to change their heating system. The Climate Change Committee, an independent government advisory body, has estimated the cost of this transition to be £162 billion (€190 billion) between 2020 and 2050. Today, less than one percent of households use a heat pump.
In a European comparison, Great Britain is one of the laggards with these values. The country is still behind Germany, where the switch to heat pumps is also making slow progress and falling short of expectations.
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In 2022, 236,000 devices were installed in this country. There are a total of 1.7 million in use, with fewer than 300,000 in the UK. Germany also remains more moderate than the British in terms of goals, with a target of 500,000 sales per year.
“The Department of Energy Security and Net Zero does not have an overarching, long-term plan to improve household awareness of the need to decarbonise building heat,” the NAO said in its report.
In contrast, the government pointed to the increase in financial support for heat pumps from £5,000 to £7,500 since September. She sees her job as “helping families make decisions rather than forcing them to install a heat pump.”
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New heating sales figures
Just last week the government made another concession to the industry. The plan was to impose fines on manufacturers from April if they did not meet specified quotas for sales of heat pumps.
The “clean heating market mechanism” required boiler manufacturers to make at least four percent of their sales from heat pump gas appliances – or face a £3,000 fine for each failure to install them. Now, after intensive lobbying, the manufacturers have another year to prepare.
In anticipation of the policy, dubbed the boiler tax by the industry, prices for gas boilers have already been increased by £120. The boiler market is very concentrated. With Worcester Bosch, Vaillant, Baxi and Ideal, four major manufacturers control 90 percent of the market.
Dates for bans must be postponed
In September, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak postponed the deadline for a ban on new oil and propane boilers for remote settlements without a connection to the gas network from 2026 to 2035.
The delays fit the pattern: Sunak has weakened a number of his predecessors’ requirements for environmental relief out of concern that the requirements would cost him votes among conservative voters. The Conservative party has been lagging far behind the opposition Labor Party in polls for months. There will be elections in Great Britain later this year.
The costs of purchasing and installing a heat pump are considered an important obstacle to the slow implementation. According to the National Infrastructure Commission, a heat pump costs on average £10,000 more than a gas boiler. However, some energy suppliers are now offering models for £500 if government financial support is used.
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According to NAO, prices for a heat pump have only fallen by six percent since 2021, adjusted for inflation. In its calculation, the government expected a reduction of 25 to 50 percent by 2025.
In addition, the operation of electrically powered devices is also more expensive. The price for electricity per unit of heat is significantly higher than for gas, the result of a state tariff policy that has been announced to be revised but is still a long time coming.
The government’s hesitant guidelines are also partly to blame for the slow expansion, according to the NAO. Tests on the use of hydrogen for heating in the country will continue until 2026. However, the model tests for this technology, which the traditional boiler manufacturers, among others, are campaigning for, have been increasingly scaled back.
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There is currently only one trial running in Scotland with 300 households. Observers see little chance for hydrogen in heat generation; the gas is needed more urgently in heavy transport and in industrial areas for which decarbonization is particularly difficult. However, many consumers are unsure whether a heat pump is actually the best technology for them or whether they should choose a boiler that can be converted to run on hydrogen.
Ultimately, despite a government awareness campaign, the issue has not yet reached everyone in the country. According to a survey from last year, 30 percent of the population have not heard that they need to convert their heating system in order to achieve net zero goals.