The results of municipal elections in Türkiye fared better than expected for the main opposition party, the Chp. The secular and republican political force, heir to the founder of modern Türkiye Kemal Ataturksaw its candidates reconfirmed a Istanbul, Ankara and along the Aegean coasts, but it has also managed to expand into areas previously held by the opposition. The CHP has always remained in the lead and left the president’s party behind Recep Tayyip Erdoganl’Akp: he managed to maintain the 14 municipalities won in 2019 and gained another 12. “Unfortunately we were unable to obtain the result we wanted in the elections” admitted the head of state.
The advance of the main opposition party marks a unprecedented breakthrough since Erdoğan has been in power and provides valuable indications on the future of the country and in particular on the next presidential elections, scheduled for 2028. President Erdoğan will no longer be able to appear, having reached the maximum number of mandates required by law, and his successor has not yet been designated, while it is easy to understand who the CHP candidate will be. The party is currently governed by Özgür Özelsucceeded to Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who was defeated in the June 2023 presidential elections and ousted from the reformist and younger wing of the party. Özel spoke of a “historic result” because “voters have decided to establish a new politics in Turkey”. Now he will most likely take the reins of the CHP Ekrem İmamoğlu, mayor of Istanbul just reconfirmed with more than 50% of the votes. The mayor of the economic capital of the country is now a well-known figure at a national level and this second reconfirmation, combined with the general success of the party on a national scale, puts into crisis the idea of a Turkey under the total control of Erdoğan and the party of he.
The AKP also lost two municipalities, Sanliurfa e Yozgatin favor of Welfarean Islamist party led by the son of Necmettin Erbakan, Erdoğan’s mentor. Refah had supported the Turkish head of state during the presidential elections, but preferred to present its candidates in the municipal elections after accusing the AKP of not being loyal enough to the dictates of Islam. It was also theMhp, a far-right party and part of Erdoğan’s governing coalition, which won two new municipalities. The positive result of the more extremist parties of the Turkish political spectrum marks a turning point compared to the past, highlighting the polarization of the electorate and a strengthening of nationalistic component e religious. The first traces of this polarization had already been seen in the national elections: the MHP had unexpectedly reached 10% of the preferences and even the most extremist parties – the Welfare and it Victory – had won seats in Parliament. On the streets of Istanbul it was also easy to come across groups of Sostenitor of Erdogan who celebrated by raising their four fingers high, a symbol of Turkish nationalism.
In just one year, therefore, Erdoğan has lost popularity among his voters, also thanks to one economic crisis from which the country cannot escape. Despite the drastic change imposed by the president at economic policies after the last elections, inflation it has almost reached 70% and the value of the lira continues to depreciate. Even the attempt to use it seems to have been of little avail the war on Gaza: Erdoğan tried to present himself as the protector of the world Mussulmanleveraging the feeling of religious brotherhood and raising the tone towards Israelbut national dynamics seem to have been preponderant in the electorate’s choices.
However, the result in the south-east with a Kurdish majority is hardly surprising. The pro-Kurdish party Dempreviously known as Hdp, was reconfirmed in all districts except one, which ended up under the control of the MHP. During the election day, however, several arrived complaints of fraud and in the district of Ona few kilometers from the Kurdish capital Diyarbakir, a party militant was killed during a clash at one of the polling stations. Then there remains the doubt about the longevity of the new mayors in the South-East. Hundreds of first citizens have been forcibly removed on charges of terrorism and replaced by people loyal to Erdoğan and the government and many fear that this script could repeat itself. In any case, the results of the municipal elections reopen the game for the next presidential elections and demonstrate that the opposition still has a chance of victory after the defeat in June.