© Reuters. Guosen Securities: The blockbuster model G6 is worth looking forward to. Maintain Xiaopeng Motors-W (09868) buy rating
Zhitong Finance APP learned that Guosen Securities issued a research report stating that the performance of Xiaopeng Motors in the first quarter was under pressure due to multiple factors. With the continuous expansion of the sales pre-replenishment network, delivery in the second quarter is expected to improve quarter-on-quarter. In June, Xpeng will launch the blockbuster model G6, and will launch the first MPV model X9 at the end of the year, which is expected to drive the overall sales and performance to rebound. Guosen Securities expects that in 2023/2024/2025, the company’s sales revenue will be 38.2/505/69.8 billion yuan, and the net profit will be -67/-56/-3.1 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The main views of Guosen Securities are as follows:
In the first quarter of 2023, Xiaopeng Motors sold 18,230 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 47.25% and a month-on-month decrease of 17.89%; sales revenue was 4.033 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.90% and a month-on-month decrease of 21.53%; -1.701 billion yuan, compared to -2.361 billion yuan in the previous quarter). The first quarter is the traditional off-season for the auto industry. Although the prices of raw materials such as lithium carbonate have dropped quarter-on-quarter, there is a certain time lag in cost transmission. At the same time, the national new energy vehicle subsidies have declined, and the decline in deliveries has weakened the scale effect. Some models such as the old P7 There are promotional clearance activities, and multiple factors have affected the company’s performance.
In the first quarter of 2023, Xiaopeng Motors’ gross profit margin/net profit margin were 1.66%/-57.94%, respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 10.55/35.13 percentage points, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7/12 percentage points; R&D expense ratio/sales, administrative and general The expense ratio was 32.13%/34.38%, respectively, an increase of 15.75/12.35 percentage points year-on-year, and an increase of 8.2/0.22 percentage points month-on-month. The company’s research and development expenses are mainly used for the update of the intelligent driving algorithm XNGP and the research and development of new models; sales management expenses are mainly used for franchise store commissions, as well as marketing and advertising expenses. In the first quarter, due to the decline in revenue, the expense ratio increased, but the amount of expenses decreased year-on-year, and cost control has initially achieved results.
The sales and energy replenishment network continued to expand, and the second quarter is expected to improve quarter-on-quarter. In the first quarter of 2023, Xiaopeng Motors sold 18,230 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 47.25% and a month-on-month decrease of 17.89%. Among them, the sales volume of G3/P7/P5/G9 was 2183/6346/5520/4181 respectively. According to the company’s financial report guidance, the delivery volume in the second quarter of 2023 is expected to be 21,000-22,000 units, with a total revenue of 4.5-4.7 billion yuan. As of March 31, 2023, the company has 425 domestic sales stores, covering 145 cities across the country; 1,016 self-operated charging stations, including 816 self-operated super charging stations and 200 destination charging stations.
The technical architecture has been upgraded again, and new models are expected to help sales rebound. In April 2023, Xiaopeng Motors launched a new generation of intelligent electric platform architecture SEPA2.0, laying a technical foundation for future mass-produced models. In June 2023, Xpeng will launch the first new model G6 adopting the SEPA2.0 technology architecture, and at the end of 2023, it will launch the first MPV model X9, which is expected to drive the overall sales and performance of Xpeng to rebound. Looking forward to 2024 and beyond, Xpeng Motors is expected to further develop the electric vehicle market worth 150,000-300,000 yuan, continue to promote technology cost reduction and channel sinking, and open up a business model of software fees under the blessing of intelligent driving XNGP to achieve sales and performance double growth.