Donald Trump wins even when he forfeits, even when he churns out media performances without fireworks. Indeed, in his absence, his rivals for the Republican nomination for USA 2024 cannot find the knockout blow – it was difficult – and they don’t even put him on the ropes with swings on the hips and hooks on the chin. He comes out unscathed or almost.
And, in a few hours, Trump will take over the whole media scene by handing himself over to the authorities in Atlanta to be arrested, formally indicted – for the fourth time – and immediately released on $200,000 bail. All circumstances that usually sew on you the scarlet letter of the alleged culprit, but of which Trump instead makes an occasion for propaganda, to the sound of slogans and lies: Guilty? He is the victim of a politically corrupt justice. The web of accusations that has been enveloping him for four months, instead of fueling the suspicion of a crime, is – he says – proof of his innocence: they want to kill him through the courts because they are afraid of him in the voting test.
For the former president, the decision, risky on paper, to dodge the first debate between the candidates for the Republican nomination for USA 2024 proves to be spot on. On stage in Milwaukee (Wisconsin) and on the screens of Fox News, his opponents talk more about him than about themselves and no one imposes himself as able to beat him. Meanwhile, he sends on X, the former Twitter, a complacent and somewhat hackneyed interview with journalist friend Carlson Tucker, former ‘star’ of Fox News, who recently kicked him out precisely for ‘excess Trumpism’ : the social network of chirps is his friend again, now that a potential ‘alter ego’ of his from the Thirties, Elon Musk, is managing it.
Seven red ties and a woman in white
In their first debate, the eight hopefuls for the Republican nomination who meet the criteria set by the Republican National Committee fought to emerge and they clashed over Ukraine, abortion and Trump. For millions of voters in the Republican primary, which begins only in almost five months, January 15 in Iowa was the first opportunity to see and evaluate them: some of them have little national recognition.
Center stage was the governor of Florida Ron DeSantiswhose campaign has been crashing for months, and the entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, whose populism is, on the other hand, having more impact than expected. To the right of DeSantis, Trump’s former deputy Mike Pence, the most experienced and the one who talks the most; the former governor of New Jersey Chris Christie; and Governor of North Dakota Doug Burgum.
To Ramaswamy’s left were the former governor of South Carolina, and former US representative to the UN, Nikki Haley, the only woman; the Senator from South Carolina Tim Scott, a black; and former governor of Arkansas Asa Hutchinson.
Two curiosities: a political one, six of the eight are or have been governors (Pence of Indiana); and a chromatic one, all the men are in dark suits with red ties – red is the color of the Republicans -, while Haley has a white suit with blue highlights.
It starts with the economy, which gives everyone the opportunity to attack their ‘enemy number 1’, i.e. the president Joe Biden, whose failure is the only point on which there is general agreement. Then, on Ukraine, on abortion, on the climate, the eight attack each other and attack Trump, with more or less intensity and conviction. There are those who hypothesize a ticket between the tycoon and the populist entrepreneur Ramaswamy, who, in some ways, resembles him, even if he appears dialectically less rough and heavy.
The most insidious moment is when they are asked if they will support Trump, whether, despite a possible conviction in one of his many trials, he will be the Republican candidate for USA 2024. Only Christiethe most critical with the former president, and Hutchinson (not surprisingly, the two former prosecutors) they say they won’t support itbecause his behavior was subversive.
DeSantis does not come out of the gray: campaign in breakdown
From the duel in Milwaukee, no winner comes out, but one loser, DeSantiswho does not find the backlash to relaunch his campaign: too studied, not very empathetic, with little charisma, insists on the decline of the country and promises to “send Joe Biden back to his basement“, but as a proposal it runs aground on the controversial “Florida model”.
Even Trump with Carlson does not make a bang: repetitive and obvious, a slightly broken puck – and this can start to become a handicap. He certainly doesn’t need to make himself known; he must, however, avoid always offering only the replica of himself: attacks Biden the “corrupt”, “a Manchurian candidate”; reiterates the thesis of the rigged elections; promises to close the border with Mexico in an anti-immigration function; but rambles on about her relationship with the late pedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein and his relationship with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.
A Milwaukee, Pence scores some points: receives the applause of rivals for having opposed Trump’s request not to certify Biden’s victory, violating the Constitution; and lines up the rampant Ramaswamy, bio-tech entrepreneur with no political experience, “this is not the time for beginners and apprenticeships“.
Christie increases the dose on Ramaswamy: «I’m sick of this guy who looks like ChatGtp“; and he remembers being the only one in the lot to have beaten (in his state) a Democrat in office. Haley is the only one to say that she does not “demonize” abortion and evokes the female plus by quoting Margaret Thatcher: “If you want something to be talked about, ask a man; if you want it done, ask a woman“.
Scott, the only African-American Republican Senator, would-be “conservative Obama”doesn’t make a gaffe, but doesn’t miss the screen, like the anonymous Burgum.
on theUkraine, most of the candidates are in favor of aid to Kiev, except Ramaswamy, strongly criticized by Pence and Haley, the two most experienced in international politics. DeSantis is asking the Europeans for a greater commitment.
The Atlanta scene
The contest of events makes Amber Philips say in the Washington Post that USA 2024 campaign “really kicks off this week”. The curtain on the debate has just fallen – the confrontation was aired at 9 pm on the East Coast, 03.00 am in Italy – that the attention of the media has already moved to Fulton County, Atlanta, Georgia, where since yesterday some of Trump’s 18 co-defendants are already undergoing judicial procedures, including the former mayor of New York Rudolph Giuliani, at the time of the events the president’s lawyer and his guru in the legal battles, all lost, for prove that the 2020 presidential election won by Joe Biden was rigged and stolenand the other lawyer John Eastman, strategist of Trump’s attempts to stay in power despite the defeat – both immediately free on bail -.
For many, the trial in Georgia is the most insidious of those that Trump has to face: he was also indicted in New York, Florida and Washington. County Attorney General Fani Willis accuses him of leading “a criminal organization” and “a vast conspiracy” to overturn election results in the state and the union.
The former president has been warned against intimidating co-defendants, witnesses, jurors and victims, verbally and even on social media. But experts warn that the tycoon’s rhetoric will be difficult to keep under control. And measures that clash with the freedom of expression enshrined in the First Amendment to the US Constitution offer the starting point for skirmishes that can benefit him.
Next week, there will be a preliminary hearing in Atlanta, while the trial is expected to start in March, in the middle of the primary season. In
pending processes, which the tycoon’s lawyers try to delayTrump’s accounts as a candidate for the nomination today add up.
Cover photo EPA/MIKE DESISTI/POOL