We risk another 2022, when due to the long period of drought, hydroelectric production in Italy has fallen by 37.7%, as certified by the latest Terna survey. There is no snow: in January the situation was worse than last year.
In general, Italian energy production in 2022 stood at 276.4 billion kWh, down by 1.3% compared to 2021, with photovoltaic (+11.8%) and thermoelectric (+6, 1%) growing and, alongside the hole left by hydroelectricity, energy from wind (-1.8%) and geothermal (-1.6%) recorded a slight contraction.
70% of the water in the snow is missing
The numbers are validated by Elettricità Futura, the Confindustria association of companies that represent 70% of the Italian electricity market: in 2022 the record drought, the most severe in the last 70 years, in which rainfall decreased by 46% compared to average of the last thirty years, hydroelectric production has almost halved compared to the historical production of the sector. And 2023 has started worse in terms of drought: about 70% of the water accumulated in the snow is missing, a greater deficit than last year.
Snow below historical averages
Sector operators confirm the scenario, albeit with the specificities linked to the various areas of activity. «2022 was a surprisingly negative year, with production volumes well below 30% of the historical averages», says Lorenzo Giussani, director of Generation & Trading of the A2A group. «Unfortunately, production this January, typically an important month, was also significantly lower than the average and even the values of last year. As regards two important indicators, which are the energy stored in the reservoirs, i.e. how full the dams are, and the quantity of snow that will melt and then transform into production, we can say that in the four large areas where we operate – Valtellina, Valchiavenna, Calabria and Friuli-Venezia Giulia – the water stored in our basins is in line with the historical averages, even if it is suffering in Calabria».
«The worrying figure is on the snow: there isn’t much of it, it’s about 30% below the historical averages. The stock of potential energy is therefore lower. This has possible implications not only for the hydroelectric world. In the territories in which we operate in particular, reasoning is being made in view of a possible hydraulically critical summer season. It should also be emphasized that water is used not only to produce hydroelectric energy, but also to cool thermoelectric plants: if there were low river levels due to the shortage of water, in general, there could be a risk – albeit remote – standby for some gas systems. A risk that would be avoided if instead the rains returned», concludes Giussani.