Since he was deposed as prime minister in April last year following a no-confidence motion, Imran Khanpresident of the party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), was accused of illegal party financing, inciting violence, selling state gifts during his term, bribery and inciting terrorism. For his part, Khan has always maintained that the allegations are fictitious, that his impeachment was illegal, and that it is a political conspiracy against him by his political opponents and the United States. At the same time, Khan’s supporters have seen these allegations as “politically motivated” and accuse the government of planning to conduct a witch hunt against the PTI leader.
After the motion of no confidence, Pakistan experienced an unprecedented political crisis, with mass demonstrations by Khan’s supporters for months, further accentuated by the economic crisis of the countrywhich is still negotiating a bailout with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Recently, the situation escalated further when police stormed Khan’s home in Lahore, Punjab province on Saturday, May 18, resulting in the third violent armed confrontation between the police and Khan’s supporters, who argue that the Pakistani judicial system does not want to guarantee the safety and physical integrity of the former Prime Minister in order to be able to appear in person in court to defend himself against the charges brought against him. However, the government is simply saying that Khan’s failure to attend court is a violation of the law.
This resistance by Khan’s supporters is also justified by the disproportionate use of violence by the police against unarmed civilians; for example, local media reported that more than 60 people were injured in recent clashes, leading Khan himself to claim that the police do not want to arrest him, but kill him. These comments come several months after an assassination attempt was made during a protest march in Wazirabad last October.
These protests have not been limited to the area around Khan’s home in Lahore, but have spread across the country and are unfolding intensely (including clashes between Khan’s supporters and the police) in cities like Karachi, Islamabad and Peshwara. At the same time, Khan continues to encourage his supporters to take to the streets to protest against the government and the judiciary in case he is imprisoned or killed.
This situation demonstrates the serious political crisis facing the South Asian country, accentuated by the economic crisis that has been dragging on for several years, as well as by the floods that occurred between June and October last year and by the increase in terrorist attacks in the country. Meanwhile, the government of Shehbaz Sharif is unable to get the situation back on track and stabilize the country politically and economically.
Elections in April, May and October
The unrest has a clear political connotation due to the regional elections in Punjab e Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to be held in April and May respectively, and a general election in October. Authorities are likely to continue trying to prosecute Khan in the coming weeks, even though they canceled the arrest warrant on Saturday March 18. However, attempts to prosecute Kahn for the crimes he is accused of will largely depend on the reaction of his supporters, who could become even more violent and angry if he is not allowed to run in October’s general election. Indeed, Khan himself justifies the arrest attempts on this basis, namely the government’s attempt to prevent him from participating in the upcoming general elections.
Naturally, the government would like at least Khan to surrender voluntarily, since the current standoff between police and Khan’s supporters it is tearing apart the image of Sharif and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML). However, given the current situation, Khan is likely to be the most popular candidate in the upcoming general elections and his party is likely to be the most popular in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa elections as well.
Popular revolution, coup d’état, the position of the UN
Consequently, in view of this election, try to do not go the judicial route it may be the most sensible thing to do for Pakistan’s fragile democracy, as it would leave Khan himself without a case against the so-called “repressive government” which seeks to arrest political opponents. Therefore, the Pakistani judiciary is likely to think twice before trying Khan again, as this would not only give him electoral wings and a greater victory in the election, but could also lead to a situation of widespread and uncontrolled violent protests across the country. .
In this sense, the tug of war between the government and Khan could get out of control and lead to the collapse of the Pakistani political system following a popular revolution, with all the consequences for the stability of South and Central Asia that this would entail. As a result, a possible scenario to try to avoid this could be a military coup (not surprising, given the country’s history of military dictatorships) or, even if the military fails to control the situation, a international intervention supported by the UN Security Councilalthough an agreement between the United States, Russia and China on this would be difficult, especially if we consider that Beijing considers the installation of an authoritarian military government in Islamabad more favorable to its geo-strategic interests in the region than the electoral victory of khan.
Copertina EPA/RAHAT DAR’s photo