In April, the property market ushered in an “inflection point” regardless of supply and demand, and the absolute volume returned to the level when the current round of market started in February. The reason is mainly due to the fact that the confidence in the industry has not been fully restored, and the demand accumulated in the early stage has been released.
In April, the overall supply and demand growth momentum of the property market weakened. The supply of key 30 cities has shrunk significantly, falling to a new low in the same period in the past five years, and the transaction volume has dropped by 27% month-on-month. The four cities of Beijing, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Xi’an can still maintain a growth momentum from the previous month. At the prefectural level, the transaction scale in April was still at a low level. Due to the relatively high quality of land supply in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou, which are the absolute main force, the enthusiasm of real estate companies in bidding has increased significantly, and the overall premium rate has remained at a relatively high level of 7.2%. . Affected by the pre-supply land system, the unsold rate remained at a relatively low 11% within the month.
01 New supply The lowest first-line in the same period in the same period of 5 years was “cut in half” compared with the same period, and only Zheng Rong had a significant increase in volume
In April, 30 key cities added 13.33 million square meters of new supply, a month-on-month decrease of 35% and a year-on-year decrease of 19%, which is even more cut compared to the same period in 2019-2021. The reason is that, on the one hand, in March, real estate companies accelerated supply in order to grab customers, which made some supply front-loaded, and faced greater supply pressure in April. On the other hand, starting in late March, leading indicators such as visits and subscriptions in some cities showed signs of weakening, and the wait-and-see mood in the market reemerged, and the enthusiasm of real estate companies to launch properties also declined.
In terms of energy levels, the overall supply of the four first-tier cities is expected to be 1.92 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 45% and a year-on-year decrease of 42%. The supply in Beijing has shrunk sharply. Only 4 projects have been certified this month, and the supply scale is as low as 90,000 square meters, a decrease of more than 90% year-on-year and month-on-month. After Shanghai and Guangzhou experienced a wave of concentrated sales last month, the pace of supply slowed down significantly this month, with a month-on-month decrease of 49% and 32% respectively. Among the 4 cities, only Shenzhen’s supply continued to improve, with a slight increase of 8% month-on-month and doubled year-on-year. Longgang, Guangming, and Longhua are still the main supply areas, accounting for nearly 70% of the city’s supply.
The total supply of 26 key second- and third-tier cities was 11.41 million square meters, a decrease of 33% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 13%. The cumulative year-on-year increase in the first four months narrowed to 6%. From a month-on-month perspective, the supply scale of nearly 90% of cities has been adjusted back, and Wuhan, Tianjin, Kunming, etc. have been cut in half from the previous month. Among the key second- and third-tier cities, only Changsha, Zhengzhou, and Fuzhou have higher supply areas than last month. For example, Changsha’s supply began to increase in the two weeks at the end of April. Real estate companies have accelerated their pace of delivery in preparation for May Day. Among them, Yuelu District, a major supplier, has a scale of over 180,000 square meters , accounting for about 30%. Looking at the year-on-year comparison, 60% of the cities’ supply was lower than the same period last year. Nanjing, Nanning, Kunming, etc. had the most obvious shrinkage. Hangzhou, Jinan, etc. saw a slight increase year-on-year. Cities with large year-on-year increases, such as Changchun and Chengdu, were mostly due to the impact of the epidemic last year on the progress of evidence collection. The supply base is low.
02 new house transaction The month-on-month decrease of 27% is the first to recover in the early stage of February, and the decline of the second and third lines is almost cut
In April, the overall transaction scale turned from up to down, and the market heat returned to the level at the beginning of this round of market launch. According to CRIC monitoring, the transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 cities was 16.42 million square meters, basically the same as the absolute volume in February. In terms of changes, the month-on-month decrease was 27%, and the year-on-year increase was 37%. Although the monthly transaction volume was slightly better than the same period last year, it was still significantly lower than the level of the same period in 2019-2021, and the market recovery momentum was slightly insufficient.
Cities at all energy levels experienced declines to varying degrees.First-line transactions are more resilient,Since last month’s concentrated heavy volume, this month fell slightly by 11%, and the cumulative year-on-year increase was still 21%. Among them, Beijing and Shenzhen continued to increase year-on-year. Shenzhen mainly benefited from the increase in supply. The supply of Longgang and Guangming is basically more than 100,000 square meters; High-rigid-demand disks continue to sell well. The transactions in Shanghai and Guangzhou dropped slightly month-on-month, and the popularity dropped slightly, but they still maintained a year-on-year growth trend.
Second- and third-tier cities are facing a decline in popularity.On the one hand, the overall transaction correction rate is greater than that of the first line, with a month-on-month drop of 30%. On the other hand, the city-to-country declines are more than the increase, and only the central and western cities such as Chengdu and Xi’an are independent and have a month-on-month increase. At present, the more significant decline can be divided into the following three categories: First, strong second-tier cities such as Wuhan, Tianjin, and Chongqing that still have a population advantage. Sources have been exhausted, and the overall demand has also entered a period of weakening. The second is weak second-tier cities such as Changchun, Nanning, Dalian, and Kunming. The overall urban fundamentals are not good, and the problem of high inventory is difficult to solve. After the transaction returns to rationality, it is expected that the bottoming market will continue. The third is Xuzhou, Foshan, Dongguan and other third- and fourth-tier cities. With the enthusiasm for home buying and short-term investment speculation weakening, the market has returned to rationality.
03 Project de-alization In the early stage, the heat of the two types of warming cities has dropped significantly, and the demand has just changed and the energy has weakened.
According to CRIC survey data, the average opening sell-through rate of 31 key cities dropped steadily to 51%, a decrease of 6 percentage points from the previous month. Judging from the weekly changes, the volatility of ups and downs has increased, mainly due to the impact of the structure of the market, which dropped from 70% at the beginning of the month to 41%, and rose to 59% in the latest week.
Focusing on a single city, in April each city experienced a month-on-month decrease and a decrease. Only the first city of Hangzhou’s sell-through rate rose from 73% in the previous month to 81%. New and old properties in the second circle alternated, and the overall sell-through rate continued to be high. Although Changzhou has slightly increased by 1 percentage point from the previous month, it still fluctuates at a low level of less than 15%.
Judging from the current performance of each city, although the short-term sell-through rates of Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, which were hot spots in the early stage, have declined, the absolute value of the sell-through rate remains at a high level of more than 60%. In comparison, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Nanjing, Wuhan, etc., which hovered at a low level in the early stage and have rebounded significantly in the short term, have seen a significant decline in sales rates this month. After the ebb tide, residents’ demand for housing has returned to rationality, but the current overall popularity is still It is slightly better than the same period in February. Some cities, such as Nanjing and Xiamen, are expected to usher in a period of concentrated market entry for late-stage mid-to-high-end products, which is expected to drive continuous release of improved demand.
Focusing on the level of individual projects, there are more obvious signs of ebb and flow. We compared the sales of the same project in different cities in March and April. Hefei, Tianjin, Chengdu, and Nanjing all showed signs of a decline in popularity. Take Hefei as an example For the Jingyangli project of Dingjian in Feidong County, the sell-through rate was still 25% in March, and the sell-through rate dropped to 18% in April, a drop of 7 percentage points.
04 in stock 30 cities fell slightly by 1.4% month-on-month, Fuzhou, Wuxi and other digestion cycles returned below the warning line
In April, both supply and demand in most cities shrank, but the shrinkage of supply was slightly greater than that of transactions. Therefore, the overall supply-demand ratio of the 30 key monitored cities dropped from 0.91 last month to 0.81. The supply-demand relationship in the three first-tier cities except Shenzhen tends to be tense, and the supply-demand ratio in Beijing has dropped to 0.1. Cities such as Xiamen and Wuhan have also turned from a supply-demand ratio of more than 1 last month to a range of undersupply. Affected by this, the inventory in 30 cities continued to decline, down 1.4% month-on-month, and the inventory in Beijing and Shanghai fell by more than 5% month-on-month.
The digestion cycle of 30 key cities was shortened compared with last month, showing that the inventory backlog situation has further improved, especially Zhengzhou, Xiamen, etc. have dropped by more than 20%, and the digestion cycle of Wuxi, Fuzhou, etc. has returned to the safe range from above the 18-month warning line. Year-on-year, except for Dalian and Shenzhen, the digestion cycle of other cities has been shortened, and the decline in Changchun and Qingdao has been relatively large and shortened to within 30 months, and the pressure of destocking has eased.
05 second-hand housing Transactions fell by 17% month-on-month, Shensu Rong and others continued to increase in volume, and Beijing-Hangzhou and others weakened significantly
In April, the transaction area of second-hand housing in 17 key cities is expected to be 8.95 million square meters, a decrease of 17% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 77%. The quarter-on-quarter decline in transactions is certainly due to holidays affecting online signings, but the most important thing is that the release of the backlog of demand in the early stage is gradually coming to an end, and the subsequent release period has entered a gentle release period. The cumulative transaction volume of second-hand housing in the first four months was 31.16 million square meters, a cumulative increase of 76% year-on-year.
In terms of cities, nearly 90% of the monitored cities had a negative month-on-month increase in second-hand housing transactions, and the correction in Beijing and Hangzhou was particularly obvious, with a month-on-month decline of about 30%. In fact, since late March, indicators such as the second-hand housing market in Hangzhou have declined significantly, and second-hand housing transactions have also begun to weaken week by week, reflecting the continued decline in market activity. Second-hand housing transactions in Beijing ushered in a wave of heavy volume at the end of March. As the backlog of demand during the epidemic period and the demand for home purchases were gradually released, the transaction gradually weakened after the Qingming Festival.
On a year-on-year basis, the transaction scale in more than 80% of the cities was higher than that in the same period last year. Chengdu, Suzhou, Dongguan, etc. have the highest growth rates. For example, in Chengdu, second-hand housing transactions continued to perform strongly in April, and the scale doubled year-on-year. According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, second-hand housing prices in Chengdu have risen for 15 consecutive years. Accelerate entry into the market. The second-hand housing market in Suzhou has ushered in a rebound after a long period of downturn. The transaction scale in April increased by 150% year-on-year, reaching the second highest level in a single month since 2021. At the end of April, the transaction in Shenzhen was obviously strong. The core reason is that the guide price policy of second-hand housing has ushered in the adjustment after two years. The intermediary platform still needs to display the price of the house according to the guide price, but the implementation level will no longer affect the lending, which means that the guide price has dropped. The mechanism of buying leverage to suppress second-hand housing transactions has basically failed, and market confidence has been significantly boosted by favorable policies. However, looking at Xiamen, Zhoushan and other cities, the year-on-year growth rate has narrowed to less than 20%, and Beijing and Baoji have negative year-on-year growth.
06 land market The transaction scale continues to be at a historically low level, and the local auctions in Shanghai and Hangzhou are hot and “take over”
In April 2023, although there are concentrated land auctions in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Hefei and other cities, due to the impact of the land supply strategy of reducing the volume and improving the quality in key cities, the transaction scale of the national land market is still at a historically low level.
In terms of popularity, due to the relatively high quality of land supply in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou, which are the absolute main force, the enthusiasm of real estate companies to participate in the auction is high. In the first round of land auction in Shanghai, 80% of the plots are in the one-off quotation range, and 2/3 of the plots in Hangzhou are sold by lottery, which greatly drives Despite the heat of the land market, the overall premium rate was maintained at a relatively high level of 7.2%. In terms of land acquisition by real estate companies, central state-owned enterprises are still the main force for land acquisition in most cities. For example, among the 19 land parcels in the first round of transactions in Shanghai, 80% of the land was won by state-owned enterprises, accounting for 90% of the total land auction price. . It is worth noting that the enthusiasm of private enterprises to acquire land is also increasing. 10 of the 12 land parcels listed in the third round of centralized land auctions in Hangzhou were won by private enterprises. The total amount of land acquired by private enterprises was 14.21 billion yuan, accounting for 85%.
CRIC monitoring data shows that as of April 25, a total of 3.21 million square meters of land has been sold in first-tier cities this month, a month-on-month increase of 100%, and a year-on-year increase of 124%. The transaction amount was 79.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than two times. From the perspective of specific cities, Shanghai, which will start the first round of centralized land auctions in 2023 within the month, has the largest transaction volume, with a total transaction area of 2.04 million square meters and a gold acquisition of 53.4 billion yuan. Followed by Guangzhou, the total transaction construction area is 1.15 million square meters, and the gold is 26.4 billion yuan. It involves 10 lands, including 5 commercial offices and 5 pure residential lands. Among them, 4 pure residential lands are capped and sold, and the market heat has also increased significantly. The overall premium rate increased to 12%. In addition, in Tongzhou, Beijing, there was also a transaction at a reserve price for a commercial-office plot.
The transaction scale in second-tier cities dropped significantly compared with the previous month. Specifically, as of the 25th, the transaction and construction area of second-tier cities was 7.63 million square meters, a decrease of 38% month-on-month and a sharp decrease of 63% year-on-year. The transaction value also declined significantly, down 36% month-on-month to 48.8 billion yuan, down 74% year-on-year. Affected by the continued high proportion of high-priced land in key cities, the floor price continued the high level of last month, with a slight increase of 3% to 6398 yuan/square meter. Specifically, in terms of cities, only Hangzhou, Changsha and Chengdu have more than 1 million square meters of transaction and construction area this month. At the top of the list, Hangzhou has a transaction area of 1.31 million square meters and a gold acquisition of 17.7 billion yuan. It is also the top of the list of second-tier cities in terms of transaction value. The proportion of 8 land parcels peaked at 67%, hitting a new high since 2022. In terms of land acquisition by real estate enterprises, 10 of the 12 land parcels were won by private enterprises. The total amount of land acquired by private enterprises was 14.21 billion yuan, accounting for as high as 85%. Private enterprises are very active in acquiring land. Except for the three cities of Hangzhou, Changsha, and Chengdu, only a small number of plots were sold in other cities, and the transaction floor area was mostly less than 700,000 square meters. The market heat was also low. Except for some plots in Qingdao and Xi’an, which were sold at a premium, the rest of the cities were sold at a reserve price Mainly.
Third- and fourth-tier cities showed a decline in both volume and price. As of April 25, the total transaction area was only 30.18 million square meters, a decrease of 13% month-on-month and a sharp drop of 47% year-on-year. Among the third-tier and fourth-tier cities monitored by CRIC, none of them has a transaction volume exceeding 1 million square meters. Suqian topped the list with a total transaction area of only 660,000 square meters, followed by Dongguan with a transaction area of only 550,000 square meters, and third place was Quzhou with a transaction area of only 420,000 square meters. From a regional point of view, the third- and fourth-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta are still the main force for transactions; in terms of popularity, only a small number of plots in Dongguan, Xuzhou, and Jiaxing are sold at a premium, and land auctions in most other cities are still sold at reserve prices.
07 overview The central government positively expects that the supply will still increase in May, but the transaction will still fall
Overall, the property market reached a “turning point” in April regardless of supply and demand, and the absolute volume returned to the level when the current round of market started in February. The reason is mainly due to the fact that the confidence in the industry has not been fully restored, and the demand accumulated in the early stage has been released.
With the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held at the end of the month, it was reaffirmed that “housing should not be speculated, and policies should be implemented according to the city” to support rigid and improved housing demand. Looking forward to the market outlook, we believe that as the second quarter is still the peak supply period of the year, there is still room for short-term supply to rise; from the perspective of demand, weak rigid demand and lack of improvement are high-probability events, and the overall transaction will still decline further. Different cities are expected to continue to diverge: For Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Hefei, which are hot spots and hot spots, they may face supply constraints, and the overall transaction will continue to run smoothly; for Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Tianjin and other cities that have been sluggish in the early stage, Still facing a phased adjustment period, it is difficult to see a significant improvement in the transaction in the short term, and the enthusiasm for the third and fourth tiers in northern Jiangsu and Sichuan and Chongqing, driven by home purchases, will continue to decline.
The author of this article: Cricy Real Estate Research, the source of this article: Cricy Real Estate Research (ID:cricyjzx), the original title: “Market Monthly｜The supply and demand of the property market in April dropped by 30%, and the concentrated land auctions in Shanghai and Hangzhou heated up (April 2023 )”.
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
Market risk, the investment need to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions or conclusions expressed herein are applicable to their particular situation. Invest accordingly at your own risk.