In Finlandthe electoral victory of the political right in the elections on Sunday 2 April it was no surprise. Overall, some key changes brought about by the vote stand out. In the first place, all three of the country’s biggest parties increased their number of seats in parliamentthe largest increase achieved by the centre-right National Coalition Party (KOK) and the radical right-wing sovereignist True Finns Party (PS).
The KOK in power
So, the KOK became the largest party in the nationwinning another 10 seats in Parliament, the PS came second with a seven-seat increase, and the Prime Minister’s Social Democratic Party (SD) Sanna Marin he finished third with an increase of three more seats in the new assembly.
The KOK and the PS were both atopposition during the outgoing legislature and, as often occurs and as happened with the last elections also in Italy, it is typical that the main opposition parties obtain positive results. What was not so predictable is that, in the face of the retreat of the centre-left coalition as a whole, the social democratic party, thanks to the outgoing prime minister herself, has not recorded a negative result. In the centre-left coalition, the party of Verdi, which in the last elections had obtained 11.5% of all votes cast and 20 seats, have now lost 7 and obtained only 7% of the votes. The Left Party, in turn, fell to 11 total seatslosing 5. Even the Center party it suffered a severe blow, losing eight seats and, on the basis of this result, its leader Annika Saarikko has announced that her party will not enter the government.
Petteri Orpo, the chairman of the National Coalition party, said that “it was a great victory for KOK. the Finnish people want change, and that’s why KOK is the biggest party in Finland and in the Parliament”. Orpo, 53, has an important political curriculum having held positions of minister from 2014 onwards. In turn, the party of True Finnsafter a head-to-head with the Social Democrats, has outnumbered them by a few decimals and its leader, Riikka Purra she said she was sure that a government would eventually be formed, even if the negotiations won’t be easy, just think that on the European Union and on immigration, the NCP and the PS are quite distant.
Government balances
One of the most interesting points of this electoral competition is represented by female success: the main vote catalysts at national level have all been women. Riikka Purra, Sanna Marin and Elina Valtonen of the PCN each received more than 30,000 votes.
A fact highlighted by the numerical data is that two of the parties with the highest results are not enough to form a government: the unicameral Finnish Parliament has two hundred seats, therefore the contribution of a third party would be needed to achieve a numerical majority. Somehow, a situation arises in Finland that they have often experienced in Italy, or that even a small party can form the glue necessary to create a parliamentary majority. KOK and PS together have 94 seats and even the 9 seats of the Swedish party, RKP, would be enough to reach a majority, albeit narrow, but RKP and PS do not seem compatible.
Other potential joints seem equally complicated but since politics is the art of the possible, nothing can be excluded a priori. It should be emphasized that the Finnish political and partisan framework must not and cannot be analyzed on the basis of the Italian standard: the conservative party, KOK, can be assimilated to the right-wing area of what was once the DC in our country, while the PS is not comparable with Fratelli d’Italiaat least the pre-election 2022 version. Finnish society has a more cohesive social ethical base than the Italian one, which is much more local and individualistic.
The common good to be protected is a consolidated cultural and social tradition and therefore a government crisis that could drag on for months is not imaginable, also considering that, Since 4 April 2023, Finland has been the 31st full member of NATO. This constitutes an additional incentive to close the phase of setting up a government early, also to face the uncertainties that the horizon of war and instability created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine bring to the table. An excessive emphasis on the change from centre-left to centre-right in the management of the country must not make us forget that, in the 16 years preceding the Marin legislature, the centre-right was in government.
The words of the President of the Republic
Last but not least is the leadership role that the President of the Republic can exercise Sauli Niinistö which, according to the Finnish Constitution, plays a primary role in the management of foreign affairs and therefore does not have a simple notarial function. Niinistö, who is carrying out his second and last term in office, was originally a candidate from the KOK, but in recent years he has shown absolute neutrality, earning the highest esteem from the entire Finnish political spectrum.
Concluding the legislature with a speech to parliament on March 29, the President had wisely stated that “the electoral campaign was passionate and even sharp. Maybe it’s just a sign of the times. But in a multiparty system it would be worth remembering that no single party can form the strong government we need on its own, even with just one or two members. And, especially at a time like this, it is particularly important to be ready for rapid collaboration from the beginning of the new legislature, even before the formation of the new government. This is why it is good to keep the seeds of reconciliation ready”.
Cover photo EPA/KIMMO BRANDT