The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index in January was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range and the economic recovery momentum is relatively strong
People’s Daily reported that the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 31st that showed that China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in January was 50.1%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month. After running below 50% for the month, it returned to the expansion range, showing that the economy is picking up steadily and the new year has achieved a good start. The changes in the sub-indices show that the foundation of economic recovery has been strengthened, the linkage between economic recovery is better, and the prospect of continued recovery is promising.
“In January, the PMI rebounded sharply and returned to above the line of prosperity and decline, indicating that the economic recovery is relatively strong.” Zhang Liqun, a special analyst at the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that the PMI increased by 3.1 percentage points in January, which is the highest after March 2020. The largest increase reflects the strong growth momentum of the Chinese economy. At present, it is necessary to fully implement the arrangements and arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference, fully overcome the triple pressure, and further strengthen the foundation for economic recovery.
The supply and demand sides of the market are steadily picking up, and the foundation for economic recovery has been strengthened. In January, the market demand was rapidly released, and the new order index was 50.9%, an increase of 7 percentage points from the previous month, which was a significant increase. The PMI of the consumer goods manufacturing industry was 50.9%, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of the high-tech manufacturing industry was 52.5%, an increase of 5.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the new order index rose by more than 11 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a high of 55.6% , indicating that the market demand for consumer goods and high-tech manufacturing products rebounded more prominently, and led to a steady rebound in production activities in the two major industries.
The indexes of large and medium-sized enterprises all rose, and the economic vitality improved. In January, the PMI of large enterprises was 52.3%, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous month, which is the main force supporting the rebound of the manufacturing PMI. The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 48.6%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the PMI of small enterprises was 47.2%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the operation of small and medium-sized enterprises has stabilized, and enterprises of different sizes have improved.
Wen Tao, an analyst at the China Logistics Information Center, believes that at present, business expectations tend to be optimistic, especially the production and operation activity expectation index is 55.6%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the previous month. The purchase volume index and raw material inventory index were 50.4% and 49.6% respectively, up 5.5 and 2.5 percentage points from the previous month, of which the raw material inventory index hit a new high since 2019, indicating that enterprises have increased raw material procurement and storage for production , the outlook for continued economic recovery in the market outlook can be expected. But we must also see that the current index level is still low, only slightly higher than 50%, and the recovery momentum needs to be further consolidated.
In addition, data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics on the same day showed that China’s non-manufacturing business activity index in January was 54.4%, an increase of 12.8 percentage points month-on-month. In January, the other individual indexes of China’s non-manufacturing business activity index all rose, ranging from 0.3 to 13.4 percentage points.
Cai Jin, vice president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, believes that in January, the business activity index and new order index of retail, accommodation and catering, transportation, and tourism-related industries all increased significantly compared with the previous month, reflecting the improvement of business expectations. After the Spring Festival, there will be continuity in the resumption of work and production of enterprises, the release of infrastructure investment activities is expected to be accelerated, consumption will also return to normal with a high probability, and the supporting effect on the economy will continue to appear.