Economic Observer reporter Gao Ge The new round of refined oil price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on October 9, 2021. The agency expects that the domestic refined oil price adjustment will correspond to a theoretical increase of about 340 yuan/ton by then, and domestic refined oil will usher in the thirteenth increase this year.
During the current price adjustment cycle, the rate of change continued to rise, showing positive fluctuations. On October 8, Liu Bingjuan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, analyzed and pointed out that the main influencing factor for the continued strong performance of international oil prices was that as the epidemic subsided, countries began to reopen, travel resumed, and demand for crude oil was recovering. OPEC Secretary General stated that although the recovery may still be “slow” and “bumpy”, demand will continue to rise.
Liu Bingjuan said that as of September 17, the U.S. EIA crude oil commercial stocks fell by 3.481 million barrels that week, far exceeding the expected reduction of 2.45 million barrels, and fell to the lowest level since October 2018. On the other hand, despite recent fluctuations in US economic data, overall demand for fuel has rebounded to the level before the epidemic. The supply of refined oil in the past four weeks was close to 21 million barrels per day, which is very small from the peak in 2019. On the supply side, maintenance delays during the epidemic and insufficient investment over the years have made it difficult for some OPEC member countries to increase production, and supply expectations are still tight.
At the same time, the expectation of rising international oil prices still exists. The world‘s largest independent oil trader, Vitol, predicts that global oil demand will further increase by 500,000 barrels this winter due to energy shortages represented by natural gas driving demand for other fuels. /sky. The tightening of international natural gas supply and the continuous increase in prices have weakened the price advantage of natural gas in power generation and boosted the sentiment of the crude oil market. Goldman Sachs also said that if it turns out that the northern hemisphere winter is colder than usual this year, oil prices may soar to $90 per barrel.
In 2021, there have been 18 rounds of domestic refined oil price adjustments, specifically twelve increases, three decreases, and three stranded. In general, gasoline has been raised by 1355 yuan/ton in total, and diesel has been raised by 1305 yuan/ton in total.
According to calculations by Longzhong Information, as of October 7, the comprehensive rate of change in crude oil was 6.76%, corresponding to an increase of 270 yuan/ton. It is currently the 9th working day of the price adjustment cycle, and an increase is already a high probability event. After this round of price adjustments, the price adjustment in 2021 will become “13 up, three down, and three stranded.”
The next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on October 22, 2021. At present, the crude oil market is still dominated by favorable factors, and the high-level operation posture has not changed. Longzhong Information predicts that the probability of the next round of refined oil price increases is relatively high.
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