Investment Research Report
[Main Funds]Top hot money such as Zhang Mengzhu, Liyang Road and other top hot money has bought 1 share over 1 billion! Monthly data releases heavy signals (with beneficial shares)
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[Funding changes in late trading]Why did foreign investors hit the market? Nine stocks were sold wildly for over 100 million! Analysts raise target prices for 10 stocks on the fire line (list)
[Institutional research]Xie Zhiyu, Liu Yanchun, Sun Qingrui, etc. start investigating 1 share! “Industrial MSG” ushered in a new five years (with beneficial shares)
The original title is too weird! Hundreds of billions of brokerage stocks exploded, a huge amount of foreign investment hit the market, and the turnover broke again. Will A shares go like this?The high-performance, low-valuation and stagflation stocks with foreign capitals
Original Zhang Juanjuan
What will the market go after the large-scale sale of A-share China and North China funds?
On August 19, the bull market flag-bearer trend diverged, as the brokerage sector led this round of gains, hundreds of billionsOrient SecuritiesFighting repeatedly at the daily limit, continuously “fried the board” with huge amounts, and the whole day turnover exceeded 10 billion. As of the close, Orient Securities fell from the daily limit to an increase of 4.58%.
On the news, according to the latest equity disclosure information of the Stock Exchange, on August 16, 2021,Orient Securities reduced its holdings by Raise Sino Investments Limited by 16.13 million shares, The average price per share is 7.9947 Hong Kong dollars, involving approximately 129 million Hong Kong dollars. After the reduction, the latest number of shares held by Raise Sino Investments Limited is 5014.4800 shares, and the shareholding ratio has dropped from 6.45% to 4.88%.
Relevant sources pointed out that listed securities companies will enter the intensive disclosure period of the interim report in late August, and it is expected that the high growth of overall profits will continue to catalyze the performance of individual stocks and sector stock prices. In the context of wealth management, brokerage agency sales revenue and fund holdings have grown rapidly. In addition, most brokerage firms have participated in controlling public funds, and their contribution to the company’s profits has continued to increase.Currently, brokerages still have a lot of room for upward valuation.
A-share turnover exceeded one trillion yuan for 22 consecutive days
In the past 22 trading days (July 21st to August 19th), the A-share market turnover exceeded one trillion yuan consecutively, which is evident in the popularity of market transactions.The number of lasting days ranks third in history, The last two times lasted for more than 25 days, the turnover exceeded one trillion yuan, and it appeared in 2015.
As an important threshold for measuring market activity, the Securities Times·Databao statistics show thatThe A-share market broke the trillion yuan for 9 times in 10 consecutive trading days. The Shanghai stock index rose more than one trillion yuan, but this time the turnover exceeded one trillion yuan is significantly different from the past.
As of the 26 trading days on May 6, 2015, the Shanghai stock index rose by 14.86%, and the stock index rose by 4.45% in the 10 trading days as of January 15, 2021. In the last two times, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has fallen. From July 21 to August 19, the Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly by 2.01%. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index fell sharply more than 3 times. The most recent one occurred on August 17 (the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2%).
The turnover exceeds trillions and the capital goes northward
The risk is greater after a substantial net outflow
Compared with the past,The difference this time is also in the buying and selling of funds from the north.
On August 19, Beijing Capital sold 10.783 billion yuan, a new high since July 27. Beijing Capital recently moved extremely frequently. When the A-share market plummeted on August 17, Beijing Capital bought a net 1.474 billion yuan against the trend, and the Shanghai stock index rose 1.11% the next day. Signs of bottom hunting were extremely obvious.
On August 19, the three major A-share indexes diverged. The Shanghai Stock Index fell slightly by 0.57%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.92%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.23%. What will the market go after the large-scale sale of A-share China and North China funds?
Data treasure counted that the turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion, and the net outflow of funds from the northward exceeded 3 billion, which has occurred 27 times since 2015.In the next 1, 3 and 5 days, the probability of the Shanghai Index falling is more than 70%，Especially in the next day, the probability of the Shanghai stock index falling is close to 80%.Higher risk, In the next 3 and 5 days, the probability of decline slightly eased, and in the next 10 days, the probability of decline fell sharply to less than 60%.
In addition, the “bull market flagman” brokerage stocks rose more than 6% last trading day, and fell nearly 2% on August 19, staged a “scumbag” drama. Statistics show that trading days in which the turnover exceeds one trillion yuan and securities stocks plummet (a drop of more than 2%) are relatively rare.Based on the trading days in which the turnover of the two cities exceeded trillions and the brokerage index fell by more than 2%, the probability of decline in the next day was close to 79%, and the probability of decline in the next 3 days and the next 10 days was more than 70%.
Based on a number of data indicators, it is found that although the turnover exceeds one trillion yuan is enough to make investors excited, the large outflow of funds from the north and the plummet of brokerage stocks have been found.All indicate that the market outlook is more risky, and the weak market will continue. At present, the market is more differentiated. The main funds are still in a state of net outflow, and the net outflow is close to 15 billion yuan. This net outflow situation has lasted for 8 trading days. Relevant sources said that with the fall of the new leader, the short-term sentiment of the market was suppressed, and the plate rotation was extremely fast and most of them had poor continuity. At present, the lower annual line of the Shanghai stock index and the upper 60-day line are constantly approaching, and the shock range is less than a hundred points, and the medium-term direction is about to be selected.
15 high-performance, low-valuation and stagflation stocks
Obtained large-scale increase in Beijing Capital
Recently, the rotation of the sector has accelerated significantly, and the investment style of Beijing Capital is also rapidly switching. Although the market is relatively weak, the capital from northward went from July 21 to August 19 (hereinafter referred to as the statistical interval).The total net purchases still exceed 13.5 billion yuan, Some stocks are still favored by “smart funds”.
Data treasure statistics show that within the statistical interval, the northward capital increased by more than 0.3%, the valuation was less than 30 times, the interim net profit increased by more than 30% (including the lower limit), and only the stocks that underperformed the market in the past month 15 stocks with added positions are mostly in traditional cyclical industries, includingWanhua Chemical、Hegang Resources、Ningbo HuaxiangWait.
The net profit of the interim report has increased sharply.Luoyang Glass、Oriental Biology, Wanhua Chemical, etc., the net profit growth rate of the three shares exceeded 300%, of whichLuoyang GlassThe valuation is close to 25 times, the net profit has increased by more than 1000%, and the semi-annual report is very eye-catching. In the face of severe market competition, the company insists on leading high-quality development and actively responds to the changes in domestic and international business situations; continuously accelerates mergers and acquisitions integration and new innovations. The pace of project construction.
Dongfang Biological, Hegang Resources,Big asia iconThe valuation of 3 shares is less than 10 times,Oriental BiologyNet profit is expected to grow by over 450%, mainly due to the continued major breakthroughs in the sales of new crown testing reagents, and the steady growth of the original business, which will promote the company’s operating performance in the first half of 2021 to continue to show substantial growth.
The top 3 stocks of Beijing Capital’s increase in position areOriental Biology,Golden Field MedicalandGigabit, The first two stocks have increased positions by more than 1.5% in the past month, and the share prices of the three stocks have fallen by more than 5% in the past month.Gigabit downMore than 18%, the decline is second only to the 15 stocksHuazhi Wine Company。
Sina’s statement: This news is reprinted from Sina’s cooperative media. The publication of this article on Sina.com for the purpose of transmitting more information does not mean that it agrees with its views or confirms its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
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