MILANO – News that begins to cast doubts on the stability of the production system in the face of expensive energy and fears of recession; and one that gives optimism to the government on the performance of public accounts and, in return, on the possibility of finding new resources in the folds of the public budget precisely to implement the third aid decree.
The employed are falling, the unemployed are below 2 million. They go up inactive
In the Istat publication on employment, the first is recorded decline in employment in July 2022, which hasn’t happened since August last year. To trace it is the Institute of Statistics, according to which in the summer month the Italians at work fell by 22,000 units compared to Juneinstead increasing by 463,000 on July 2021. The employment rate drops to 60.3% (-0.1 points). “In July 2022, – observes Istat in the comment – the number of employees remained stable above 23.2 million despite recording a slight decline for the first time since August 2021”.
“the number of employees remains stable above 23.2 million despite recording a slight decline for the first time since August 2021”, the comment from Istat accompanying the data. “Compared to July 2021, the increase of over 460 thousand employees is mainly determined by employees who, in July 2022, amounted to over 18 million 200 thousand; the forward component, in particular, reaches its highest value since 1977first year of the time series “.
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As regards the various indicators, if the employment rate drops to 60.3%, that of unemployment at 7.9%. In detail of the Istat emerce tables that the unemployed in July decreased by 32 thousand units on June falling below two million to 1 million 978 thousand: the two-month lockdown at the beginning of the pandemic (March and April 2020) had fallen below two million people looking for work. Such a low number – beyond the pandemic when people had largely given up looking for work – hadn’t been seen since April 2011. But there is a rise in the rate of employment. inactivityal 34,4%.
In detail of the trend in employment, Istat finds that the decline concerns in particular women, permanent employees, the self-employed and all age groups, with the exception of those over 50, among whom it is growing; growth that is also recorded among males and temporary employees. As for the people who are looking for a job, the decrease of 32 thousand units in June concerns “both genders and mainly between 35-49 year-olds”. If the general unemployment rate is 7.9%, among young people it rises by 0.1 points to 24%.
The growth in the number of inactive people between 15 and 64 years is also transversal, + 0.4% or + 54 thousand people, which “involves men and women and the age groups under 50”.
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Il quarterly comparison (May 2022-July 2022 with February 2022-April 2022) remains positive: there is an increase in the level of employment equal to 0.6%, for a total of 140 thousand more employees. “The growth in employment recorded in the quarterly comparison is associated with the decrease in both job seekers (-4.2%, equal to -89 thousand units), and inactive people (-0.6%, equal to -79 thousand units ) “, says Istat.
As for the annual comparison, said of the 463,000 more employed, Istat notes that “the increase is transversal by gender and age. The only negative change is recorded between 35-49 year-olds due to demographic dynamics; the employment rate, which is increasing by 1.6 percentage points, in fact it also rises among 35-49 year-olds (+1.5 points) because, in this age group, the decrease in the number of employed people is less marked than that of the overall population “. Again on an annual basis, “the number of job seekers decreased (-13.3%, equal to -304 thousand units) and the number of inactive persons between 15 and 64 years (-3.3%, equal to -433 thousand ) “.
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Second quarter GDP revised to + 1.1%
In a separate Istat publication on the quarterly income statements, however, the Institute has revised upwards the estimates of the Italian GDP in the second quarter of 2022. According to the updated data of the quarterly economic accounts, the Gross Domestic Product, corrected for the calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, it increased by 1.1% compared to the previous quarter and by 4.7% compared to the second quarter of 2021. trend of 4.6%.
The acquired growth of the economy for 2022 also rises, the one that would occur in the presence of quarters with “zero” economic growth in the remainder of the year: compared to + 3.4% in July, it is now indicated at 3.5 %.
Among the main components of the Italian economy, in the second quarter of 2022 all the main aggregates of domestic demand recovered compared to the previous quarter, with a 1.7% increase in both national final consumption and gross fixed investments. In detail, household spending on the economic territory recorded an increase in economic terms of 2.9%. In particular, purchases of durable goods increased by 3.7%, those of services by 5.3%, and those of semi-durable goods by 4.1%. Instead, purchases of non-durable goods fell by 1.3%.
National demand net of inventories provided a positive contribution of 1.6 percentage points to growth: +1.5 consumption by households and private ISP social institutions, +0.4 gross fixed investments, while government expenditure Publics gave a negative contribution of -0.2 percentage points. The change in inventories contributed negatively to the change in GDP for -0.3 percentage points, as did net foreign demand, which contributed equal to -0.2 percentage points. Imports and exports increased by + 3.3% and + 2.5% respectively.