Today, liquor stocks rebounded in shock. As of press time, Laobaigan liquor rose by more than 5%, Shede Liquor and Luzhou Laojiao rose by more than 4%, Wuliangye rose by more than 3%, and Kweichow Moutai rose by more than 2%.
Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released consumption data for the first two months of this year. From January to February, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 7,706.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. Among them, the total retail sales of tobacco and alcohol was 110.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%.
Dongxing Securities said that with the end of the Spring Festival sales season, liquor sales have entered a relatively stable stage. Before the demand recovery is further confirmed, market expectations are divided. Regardless of capital disturbance factors, this year’s first quarter report and the spring sugar fair will become an important observation time window for the market to further confirm the recovery trend. The expected differentiation is more due to the differences in the judgment of the future recovery trend. Looking at the whole year, we are optimistic about the overall recovery trend of liquor, especially the sub-high-end and regional wines have strong performance flexibility.
Ping An Securities believes that with the recovery of the consumption scene and the improvement of consumer confidence, the recovery trend of liquor will continue. At the same time, the active actions of wine companies are superimposed, and the fundamentals of the sector are stable. In terms of prices, the certainty of high-end wine remains undiminished. After the festival, sales will continue to be rapid, and terminal feedback will be positive. The inventory of sub-high-end wine companies will gradually be digested, and there is sufficient room for flexibility. The reform is gradually implemented, and we look forward to the realization of the follow-up reform efficiency; a number of new products of mid-end and mass wine are launched, and we will pay attention to the distribution and sales of new products.
Sealand Securities believes that after the adjustment of the sector, the industry will go out of both ups and downs, and continue to be optimistic about the performance of the sector throughout the year. The future trend will show a recovery under the trend of differentiation. The operating pressure and inventory risk may be released in the future. In the medium and long term, liquor will continue the trend of upward + differentiation.