Source: Donghai Futures Author: Donghai Futures
Research report text
background analysis:
External market: On November 16, LME copper opened at US$8371.5/ton and closed at US$8262/ton, down 1.47% from the closing price of US$8385.5/ton in the previous trading day.
Spot market: On November 16, the average price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai was 67,030 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan/ton; the average price of discount was 385 yuan/ton. The average price of electrolytic copper in Guangdong is 67,090 yuan/ton, a drop of 125 yuan/ton; the average price of discounts is 505 yuan/ton.
Core logic:
Shanghai CopperThe main force 2212 closed at 66710 yuan / ton yesterday afternoon, down 0.71%. Macro, U.S. retail sales in October recorded the largest monthly increase since February this year, the economy is still strong, the Fed’s tightening pressure is still high, and the 2-year and 10-year U.S. bond yields are inverted to a new record; the chairman of the New York Fed said that it will use monetary policy to ease financial Stability fragility, which can have adverse outcomes for the economy.
European Central Bank Governing Council Muller supports a substantial interest rate hike in December, hoping to reach an agreement on a quantitative tightening plan in December; the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in October in the UK hit a new high since 1981, and the Governor of the Bank of England said that further interest rate hikes are still possible.
The report on China’s monetary policy implementation in the third quarter mentioned that housing should be firmly adhered to and not speculated. According to news, workers at the world’s largest copper mine are scheduled to go on strike from November 21 to 23.
Fundamentals, supply, loose supply of copper concentrate, TC continued to rise; new production capacity of domestic refined copper was put into operation, but due to maintenance disturbances, the output growth was weaker than expected; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments released the implementation plan for the carbon peak of the nonferrous metal industry, proposing to prevent copper, Blind expansion of zinc, alumina and other smelting capacity.
Demand and infrastructure are still resilient, housing companies have improved financing, but exports have weakened, and overseas consumption is under greater pressure. WBMS data show that the global copper market has a supply shortage of 736,000 tons from January to September this year, compared with a shortage of 285,000 tons for the whole of last year.
Inventory, the copper warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange yesterday were 61,976 tons, an increase of 315 tons from the previous day; LME copper stocks were 89,675 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous day. In summary, macro expectations are still repeated, and copper prices tend to weaken in the short term.
Operation suggestion:Wet storage test empty.
Risk factors:The Fed’s policy exceeded expectations and geopolitical risks.
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