5The strong monthly exports exceeded expectations, indicating that port operations took the lead in resuming the delivery of pre-orders and shipments. At the same time, under the background that export expectations quickly turned pessimistic after the epidemic, it highlights that my country’s industrial system is still very resilient, and there is no need to worry about short-term industrial chain shifts. .5Monthly exports (in U.S. dollars) year-on-year16.9%compared to4month-to-month rebound13percentage points, exceeding our slightly optimistic expectations (8.0%). The uneven distribution of key export commodities shows that the main positive factor is that the efficiency of port operations is the first to return to normal, which has led to the centralized delivery of some orders in the early stage.6Exports after this month will mainly depend on the last wave of strong external demand and the timeliness for the resumption of industrial production.5The monthly data also fully shows that my country’s industrial system is still very resilient. Although the US trade policy has gradually shifted to regional closure, the risk of my country’s industrial chain moving out is extremely low in the short term, so we can be more optimistic about the export prospects for the whole year. Net exports will become an important supporting force for the reasonable and positive economic growth in the second quarter.
External demand strongly drives the tail stage, and my country’s port operation efficiency is the first to normalize, which drives the centralized delivery and delivery of non-mechanical products.5The main reason for the strong monthly exports;6Industrial production is expected to recover quickly after the month7Monthly exports are expected to have the last wave of uptrend.3-4The monthly export growth rate can be divided into the results driven by two factors. One is the tail stage of strong external demand, which should have driven the year-on-year growth of my country’s exports.20%Its time trend is quite consistent with the core inflation path of developed countries such as the United States.The second is the impact of the epidemic on industrial production and port operations.3moon,4Monthly exports were generated-15%direct influence on the left and right,4The sharp drop in the growth rate of exports of mechanical and electrical products in the month also shows the direct impact of the stagnation of industrial production in Shanghai Port and the Yangtze River Delta.5Monthly exports are comingVThe year-on-year growth rate of exports to major destinations generally improved from the previous month6-25The percentages vary, indicating that the main improvement comes from internal factors, and there is no short-term change in external demand.In addition, the rebound rate of mechanical and electrical products was moderate, and the rebound rate of textiles, clothing, shoes, bags, and some metal materials was close to or exceeded.20%The structure shows that the production in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai has recovered, but it is not the main reason for the strong export. The recovery of port operation efficiency is the main support.
5“Magic expectations” appeared in May, and the market’s concerns about the relocation of the industrial chain have increased. However, regardless of the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” or the story of “Vietnam’s industrialization”, the current global industrial chain is deeply integrated, and my country’s industrial chain has a solid foundation and strong resilience. Under the background, it is impossible to trigger the outward shift of the industrial chain overnight.The current industrial chain of the United States has been deeply integrated with my country, and the “Indo-Pacific Framework” is still in the conception stage and lacks practical details. The practical resistance to short-term advancement is huge.ASEAN, especially Vietnam, is limited by the lack of its own industrial chain infrastructure and low industrial agglomeration. In fact, imports and exports have maintained a “high turnover” model for many years, and Vietnam’s export surplus rate is insufficient.4%although the export scale is close to that of my country1/9the real industrial volume is only less than my country’s1/40It is far from enough to talk about becoming the main destination of my country’s “industrial chain relocation”.In fact, Vietnam, South Korea5The monthly export trend has not surpassed that of my country, and my country has20Since the second half of the year, the export competitiveness of Vietnam and South Korea has continued to improve.
Domestic demand tends to recover, imports of bulk upstream industrial products remain high, and imports of intermediate products related to processing trade lag behind production and are still declining.6Month is expected to usher in improvement.5Monthly imports improved year-on-year4.1percent to4.1%basically in line with our expectations (3.0%), slightly weaker than strong exports. Structural differentiation is still significant, new policies to stabilize growth drive investment demand, and imports of bulk upstream industrial products maintain high growth.However, the import of mechanical and electrical products directly related to processing trade is still in the falling range, showing the characteristics of lagging behind the production recovery.6gradually rebounded after a month.
6-7The monthly export driving factor has switched from centralized delivery to production recovery, the resilience of the industrial chain can be expected, and the final stage of strong external demand can be expected with more certainty, with a slight upward revision6、7The monthly export growth rate is forecast to reach14.1%、17.0%。At present, the deep integration of the global industrial chain is in you and me. No matter whether it is “outward migration” or “stripping”, it cannot happen overnight, and all parties will suffer from the loss of production and export efficiency. If this process is unavoidable from a medium and long-term perspective, then at least we can maintain a certain degree of my country’s ability to withstand shocks in the new global trade environment based on the status quo that China’s industrial chain is more complete, thicker, and synergistically resilient. optimism.This month, we slightly raised our forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of exports and imports1percentage and0.8percent to11.0%、7.6%maintaining net exports throughout the year can drive actualGDPincrease0.7The forecast of percentage points remains unchanged, especially in the second quarter, net exports will exceed1The contribution of percentage points has become an important supporting force for maintaining positive growth.8Since the beginning of the month, as the core inflation in the United States peaked and began to fall, it is expected that my country’s exports will fall in resonance with global exports, and will remain at4Quarterly exports likely to fall year-on-year5.0%Left and right forecasts remain unchanged.
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one,5The strong monthly exports exceeded expectations, indicating that port operations took the lead in resuming the delivery of pre-orders and shipments. At the same time, under the background that export expectations quickly turned pessimistic after the epidemic, it highlights that my country’s industrial system is still very resilient, and there is no need to worry about short-term industrial chain shifts. .
5Monthly exports (in U.S. dollars) year-on-year16.9%compared to4month-to-month rebound13percentage points, exceeding our slightly optimistic expectations (8.0%). The uneven distribution of key export commodities shows that the main positive factor is that the efficiency of port operations is the first to return to normal, which has led to the centralized delivery of some orders in the early stage.6Exports after this month will mainly depend on the last wave of strong external demand and the timeliness for the resumption of industrial production.5The monthly data also fully shows that my country’s industrial system is still very resilient. Although the US trade policy has gradually shifted to regional closure, the risk of my country’s industrial chain moving out is extremely low in the short term, so we can be more optimistic about the export prospects for the whole year.5Monthly Imports (in USD) YoY4.1%Basically as expected (3.0%), the trade surplus has widened, and net exports will become an important supporting force for reasonable and positive economic growth in the second quarter.
2. External demand strongly drives the tail stage, and my country’s port operation efficiency is the first to normalize and drive the centralized delivery and delivery of non-mechanical products.5The main reason for the strong monthly exports;6Industrial production is expected to recover quickly after the month7Monthly exports are expected to have the last wave of uptrend.
3-4The monthly export growth rate can be divided into the results driven by two factors. One is the tail stage of strong external demand, which should have driven the year-on-year growth of my country’s exports.20%Its time trend is quite consistent with the core inflation path of developed countries such as the United States, and it is expected to peak in the second quarter of this year, which should have boosted my country’s7The exports before the month can be expected to be close to the same year-on-year20%of high growth.The second is the impact of the epidemic on industrial production and port operations.3moon,4Monthly exports were generated-15%direct influence on the left and right,4The sharp drop in the growth rate of exports of mechanical and electrical products in the month also showed the direct impact of the stagnation of industrial production in Shanghai Port and the Yangtze River Delta. As a result, the market once turned pessimistic about my country’s export prospects for the whole year, but we have repeatedly reiterated that the impact of the epidemic is temporary.
5Monthly exports are comingVThe year-on-year growth rate of exports to major destinations generally improved from the previous month6-25The percentages vary, indicating that the main improvement comes from internal factors, and there is no short-term change in external demand.From the perspective of the main commodity structure, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai are the leaders of the national electromechanical industry chain, and the export of electromechanical products is year-on-year.9.4%compared to4Monthly improvement10%, and if the improvement of automobiles and auto parts is deducted, the improvement of representative mechanical and electrical products is relatively mild, such as general mechanical equipment, audio and video equipment, LCD panel modules, etc. The improvement rate is less than8%automatic data processing equipment, home appliances, lamps, etc.4month, showingProduction in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai has recovered, but this is not the main reason for strong exports.In contrast,Production is little affected by the Shanghai epidemic, but exports are largely restricted by the efficiency of port operations, such as textiles, clothing, shoes, shoes, bags, and some metal materials. The rebound rate is close to or more than20%the export of steel is even higher than the same period last year.4month-to-month rebound82percent, the uneven commodity structure shows5The efficiency of port operations was normalized first in the month, and the centralized delivery of pre-orders was the main reason for the recovery of exports.
three,5“Magic expectations” appeared in May, and the market’s concerns about the relocation of the industrial chain have increased. However, regardless of the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” or the story of “Vietnam’s industrialization”, the current global industrial chain is deeply integrated, and my country’s industrial chain has a solid foundation and strong resilience. Under the background, it is impossible to trigger the outward shift of the industrial chain overnight.
4Since the beginning of the month, the US government’s trade policy has gradually become clear,5At the end of the month, the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” theory was thrown out, trying to build a so-called “modular” system of trade rules and build a new trade bloc with regional self-isolation attributes that does not include China but whose main participants are all near China, but the United States is currently The industrial chain has been deeply integrated with my country, and the “Indo-Pacific Framework” is still in the conception stage and lacks implementable details. The practical resistance to short-term advancement is huge.ASEAN, especially Vietnam, is limited by the lack of its own industrial chain infrastructure and low industrial agglomeration. In fact, imports and exports have maintained a “high turnover” model for many years, and Vietnam’s export surplus rate is insufficient.4%although the export scale is close to that of my country1/9but the relative export surplus rate of my country is as high as20%In terms of the newly added production capacity of the above industrial systems, the real industrial volume of Vietnam is only less than that of my country.1/40It is far from enough to talk about becoming the main destination of my country’s “industrial chain relocation”.In fact, Vietnam, South Korea5The monthly export trend (three-year average growth rate) has not exceeded that of my country, and my country has20Since the second half of the year, the export competitiveness of Vietnam and South Korea has continued to improve.
4. Domestic demand tends to recover, imports of bulk upstream industrial products remain high, and imports of intermediate products related to processing trade lag behind production and are still declining.6Month is expected to usher in improvement.
5Monthly import year-on-year4.1%compared to4month improvement4.1percentage points, basically in line with our expectations (3.0%), slightly weaker than strong exports. Structural differentiation is still significant, and new domestic policies to stabilize growth are expected to boost investment demand. Imports of bulk upstream industrial products continue to maintain high growth, and crude oil (81.5%) import growth was basically unchanged from the previous month’s high, iron ore (+ 10.8pctto-17.7%), copper ore and copper materials (+ 3.4pctto14.2%),natural gas(+15.6pctto47.1%) The growth rate of imports further increased.However, the import of mechanical and electrical products directly related to processing trade is still in the falling range, and the import growth rate of integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment is higher than that of4Monthly decline, showing the characteristics of lagging behind the production recovery, it is expected that6gradually rebounded after a month.
five,6-7The monthly export driving factor has switched from centralized delivery to production recovery, the resilience of the industrial chain can be expected, and the final stage of strong external demand can be expected with more certainty, with a slight upward revision6、7The monthly export growth rate is forecast to reach14.1%、17.0%。but8Months later, as core inflation in the United States begins to fall after peaking, and the gradual implementation of monetary tightening may dampen consumer demand in developed economies at a faster pace, my country’s exports may still remain in 2019.8The month began to fall in resonance with global exports, maintaining to4Quarterly exports likely to fall year-on-year5.0%The left and right forecasts remain unchanged, and this growth rate is also the medium-term (future3-5Year) my country’s export growth rate.
At present, the deep integration of the global industrial chain is in you and me. No matter whether it is “outward migration” or “stripping”, it cannot happen overnight, and all parties will suffer from the loss of production and export efficiency. If this process is unavoidable from a medium and long-term perspective, then at least we can maintain a certain degree of my country’s ability to withstand shocks in the new global trade environment based on the status quo that China’s industrial chain is more complete, thicker, and synergistically resilient. optimism.Of course, the importance of stimulating domestic demand and promoting consumption upgrades to open up space for the consolidation of the supply and demand cycle is self-evident.
This month, we slightly raised our forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of exports and imports1percentage and0.8percent to11.0%、7.6%maintaining net exports throughout the year can drive actualGDPincrease0.7The forecast of percentage points remains unchanged, especially in the second quarter, net exports will exceed1The contribution of percentage points has become an important supporting force for maintaining positive growth.
Content excerpt fromShenwan HongyuanMacro Research Report:
“Magic Expectations Are Really Strong – Interpretation of Import and Export Data in May”
Securities Analyst:Qin Tai
release date:2022.06.10
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