Research report text
1. Market review
The bearish sentiment in the market heats up, the main pig contract 2301 gapped sharply and opened below the 20,000 yuan/ton mark, and the sub-main contract increased its position and fell. The main pig futures contract LH2301 opened at 19,890 yuan/ton and closed at 19,160 yuan/ton, a drop of 1,260 yuan/ton or 6.17%. The highest price was 19,900 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 19,130 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 19,485 yuan/ton. The total trading volume was 27137 lots, and the position was 30332 lots, an increase of -1955 lots.
2. News situation
1. Domestic and foreign ternary pig prices on December 8, 2022: (yuan/kg)
2. Profit from pig farming
According to the data from my agricultural product network, as of the week of December 2, the price of 7KG piglets was 518.57 yuan/head, a drop of 25 yuan/head from 543.57 yuan/head in the previous week. The profit of outsourced piglet breeding was 489.19 yuan/head, a decrease of 173.94 yuan/head from the previous week’s c663.13 yuan/head; the profit of self-propagation and self-raising breeding was 621.71 yuan/head, a decrease of 192.37 yuan/head from the previous week’s 814.08 yuan/head head.
3. Production capacity of pigs
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in October 2022, there will be 43.79 million fertile sows nationwide, which is 6.8% higher than the normal stock of 41 million, an increase of 0.4% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 0.7% . According to my agricultural product sample data, there were 5,035,100 reproductive sows in October, an increase of 137,400 or 2.8% from 4,897,700 in the previous month. In October, there were 30.6996 million commercial pigs on hand, an increase of 414,000 or 41.4% from the previous month’s 30.2856 million. In October, 7.6477 million commercial pigs were slaughtered, an increase of 434,500 or 5.7% from 7.2132 million in the previous month.
4. Pig slaughter data
According to the data from my agricultural product network, as of December 7, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 29.34%, an increase of 0.45% from 28.89% last week. As of December 8, the profit of slaughtering enterprises was 45.64 yuan/head, a decrease of 2.49 yuan/head from 48.13 yuan/head in the previous week. The storage capacity rate of frozen products was 17.09%, a decrease of 0.34% from 17.43% in the previous week.
5. Muyuan Co., Ltd.: The estimated number of live pigs to be slaughtered in 2022 will be raised to 61-62 million heads
Muyuan Co., Ltd. announced on December 6 an announcement on raising the forecast for the 2022 hog slaughter range. Combined with the recent changes in the company’s hog production and sales, the company has raised the expected hog production range in 2022 to 61 million to 62 million head, which is higher than the range of 50 million to 56 million hogs previously disclosed in the 2021 annual report.
The main reasons for the increase in the range of slaughter volume are: 1. Since the beginning of this year, the company has strengthened the whole-process management of all aspects of pig farming, and the efficiency indicators of all stages of pig farming have improved; It was 13.09% in half a year, and 5.93% in July-November.
As large-scale pig enterprises have significantly accelerated their slaughter plans, and the tightening of the standard fertilizer price difference has prompted farmers and secondary fattening farmers to take advantage of the trend, the supply of live pigs in the market has increased significantly, and some group companies have experienced price cuts and increased volume. At present, terminal consumption has improved. Affected by the large-scale cooling in the country, residents’ demand for pork has recovered, and the traditional pickling situation is good. Slaughtering companies have increased orders for white strips, and they are more active in purchasing pig sources. Coupled with the optimization and adjustment of local epidemic prevention policies, catering consumption in various places has gradually shown signs of recovery. At present, the overall supply in the market is still relatively loose. The market outlook will focus on the strength of pork consumption on the supply side.
Sina Statement: This news is reproduced from Sina’s cooperative media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, which does not mean agreeing with its views or confirming its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP