The text of the research report
1. Market review
iron oreThe main contract of Shi 2301 closed a positive line of 3.5 points on the upper shadow line, 26 points on the lower shadow line, and 37 points on the real body. This week’s opening price: 625.5, this week’s closing price: 662.5, the highest price this week : 666, the lowest price this week: 599.5, up 30 points from last week’s closing, a weekly increase of 4.74%.
Second, the news situation
1. The iron ore resource reserves of MagnetiteMines (MGT)’s MusterDam iron ore project in South Australia are estimated to be about 1.55 billion tons, with an iron content of about 18.7%, which increases the company’s global iron ore resources reserves to 5.74 billion tons, with an average of 5.74 billion tons. With an iron content of 19.4%, it has now become the largest mining company in the Braemar group.
2. Saijian Jindal, chairman of JSW Group, said they plan to invest 1 trillion rupees in all Karnataka-based businesses within 5 years for the development and construction of steel, green energy, cement, paint and ports.
JSW operates a steel plant with a capacity of 12 million t/y in Vijayanagar, Karnataka, and JSW said it will invest Rs 150 crore in the plant and plans to expand its capacity to 18 million t/y by fiscal 2024, Helping JSW achieve its goal of expanding its total capacity to 37 million tonnes/year by fiscal 2025.
3. Ningxia Iron and Steel plans to completely stop production from November 7, and it is expected to stop production until January 2023, reducing the average daily production of molten iron by about 7,100 tons; the building materials rolling mill will be stopped simultaneously, reducing the average daily output of building materials by about 9,000 tons.
4. Shanxi Jianlong shut down a 1080m³ blast furnace for maintenance on November 3, and the production resumption time has not yet been determined. The average daily impact of molten iron is about 4,000 tons.
3. Fundamentals
In terms of supply, from October 24th to October 30th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 26.675 million tons, an increase of 1.559 million tons from the previous month. Australia’s shipment volume was 17.931 million tons, a decrease of 242,000 tons from the previous month, of which Australia’s shipment to China was 16.296 million tons, an increase of 499,000 tons from the previous month. Brazil shipped 8.743 million tons, an increase of 1.801 million tons from the previous month.
The total amount of arrivals from China’s 45 ports was 25.667 million tons, an increase of 1.982 million tons from the previous month. In this issue, the shipments of Aoba iron ore continued to increase month-on-month, and the domestic iron ore arrivals rebounded for two consecutive weeks. Stay tuned for changes on the supply side.
In terms of inventory, as of November 4, 2022, the inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports increased by 2.4924 million tons from the previous month to 131.9346 million tons, and the port dredging volume decreased by 203,200 tons to 2.8762 million tons. Due to the shrinking profit, the factory is more cautious in purchasing raw materials, and the port dredging volume has declined. The port inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks, and will continue to pay attention to the changes in port inventory in the later period.
In terms of demand, according to my iron and steel network data, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills this week was 78.77%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.71% and a year-on-year increase of 7.88%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 86.31%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.32%, a year-on-year increase of 9.88% %; the average daily production of molten iron was 2,328,200 tons, a decrease of 35,600 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 279,300 tons.
At present, the production losses of blast furnaces have increased, and the enthusiasm of production has been greatly affected. The production reduction and maintenance of blast furnaces have increased, the operating rate of blast furnaces has declined for four consecutive weeks, and the utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity has declined for three consecutive weeks. Entering November, with the advent of the off-season, the production of molten iron is expected to decline to a certain extent under the influence of the limited production in the heating season and the increase in maintenance of steel plants. The production of molten iron has declined for three consecutive weeks.
Continue to pay attention to the changes on the demand side. On the whole, the shipment volume and arrival volume of Australia and Pakistan continued to rebound in the current period, the iron ore port inventory accumulated greatly, the production of molten iron continued to decline, and the iron ore market continued to show a pattern of weak supply and demand, which disrupted the market at the short-term policy level. Sentiment, with the recent rebound in the financial market, market confidence has been restored, and the short-term mine price has shown a volatile trend. In the later period, we will continue to pay attention to the changes in the demand side and the supply of overseas mines.
Technically, from the weekly point of view, the main contract of iron ore 2301 fluctuated and rose this week, and the top was still suppressed by the 5-week, 10-week and 20-week moving averages, and the weekly MACD indicator opened downward.
From the daily line, the main contract of iron ore 2301 rose in heavy volume today, and it was still suppressed by multiple moving averages.
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