Source: New Era Futures Author: New Era Futures
The text of the research report
1. Fundamental Analysis
1. EIA: U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 3.1 million barrels last week
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly inventory data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels in the week to October 28, compared with expectations for an increase of 367,000 barrels. Net U.S. crude oil imports rose by 1.23 million barrels per day for the week.
The refinery’s crude oil processing volume increased by 406,000 barrels per day, and the refinery capacity utilization rate rose by 1.7 percentage points to 90.6%. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.3 million barrels for the week, while distillate inventories, which include heating oil and diesel, rose by 1.23 million barrels.
2. The Fed’s interest rate hike boots have landed, and the risk of macro uncertainty has not been lifted
In the early hours of Thursday morning, the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points as scheduled, in line with market expectations; however, the Fed’s monetary policy statement and Powell’s speech suggested that aggressive interest rate hikes may be replaced by “small-step interest rate hikes” next, and the time to suspend interest rate hikes will be The delay comes after the market expected the Fed to suspend interest rate hikes in the first quarter of next year. Regarding the path of subsequent interest rate hikes, market uncertainty and risks will increase, and macro factors will continue to repeatedly interfere with the commodity market.
3. Tight geo-supply, supporting oil prices
Crude oil In November, OPEC+ started the production reduction plan, and the actual production reduction is expected to be around 1 million barrels per day. We will pay attention to the specific implementation. In addition, the US and Europe’s sanctions on Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports are approaching, and the turmoil in the Middle East has also increased the geo-risk premium. Strong support.
4. This FridayPTAFutures prices rose sharply, basis narrowed significantly
Futures prices rose sharply this Friday, and the basis gap narrowed significantly. Longzhong data shows that as of November 4, the PTA spot benchmark price in East China was 5,640 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous Friday; the basis difference was 244 yuan/ton, 406 yuan/ton narrower than the previous Friday. Ton.
5. The tight supply and demand pattern of PX has improved, and the cost-side support is limited
This week, the price of PX first decreased and then increased, and the price of naphtha was relatively stable, and the price difference between the two narrowed slightly. Flush data shows that as of November 3, the CIF median price of PX in Taiwan, China was US$985.67/ton, down by US$6.33/ton from the previous Thursday; $8.08/ton.
6. PTA processing fee fell this week
During the week, the prices of PX and PTA both fell, dragged down by demand, and PTA fell slightly. This week, the processing range of PTA fell sharply month-on-month. Longzhong data shows that as of November 3, 2022, the average processing range of PTA in China: 400.59 yuan / ton, down 29.91% month-on-month and 17.23% year-on-year.
7. The maintenance of new devices is limited, and the support of the supply side is weakened
This week, Xinjiang Zhongtai restarted, Yizheng Chemical Fiber 1# was overhauled, Yisheng New Materials increased its burden, and Yisheng Dahua 2# decreased its burden, and other devices have not changed for the time being. Longzhong data shows that as of the week of November 3, the average operating rate of PTA was 73.6%, a decrease of 1.83 percentage points from the previous month. Looking back, Yizheng Chemical Fiber has a restart plan, and there is no other new maintenance. It is expected that the supply will increase slowly.
8. Continued negative feedback on the demand side
Overhaul and burden reduction coexisted, and the polyester operating rate increased slightly this week; however, terminal orders were sluggish, and weaving operations continued to decline. Longzhong data shows that as of November 3, the operating rate of polyester was 82.39%, a slight increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 59.58%, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points from the previous week.
9. Summary
The Fed’s interest rate hike boots landed, and the market’s focus turned to the supply side; in November, OPEC+ launched a production reduction plan, and the actual production reduction is expected to be around 1 million barrels per day; in addition, the US and Europe’s sanctions on Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports are approaching, and the turmoil in the Middle East also The geo-risk premium was raised, and the short-term crude oil shocks tended to be strong.
However, macro risks will still repeatedly interfere with the commodity market, and pay attention to the implementation of OPEC+ production cuts. The 1.2 million-ton plant of Xinjiang Zhongtai Kunyu New Materials has been raised to 90%. Next week, the 350,000-ton plant of Yizheng Chemical Fiber is also planned to be restarted. The follow-up maintenance of large plants is relatively small, and the operating rate of PTA may gradually increase.
Constrained by limited terminal orders, it is difficult to release the inventory pressure in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain, the stocking of raw materials is not active, the polyester end production reduction and maintenance plans have increased, the negative feedback on the demand side continues, and the fundamental drive is insufficient.
2. Opinions and Futures Recommendations
1. Trend Outlook Mid-term outlook: Planned maintenance will be reduced in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the domestic operating rate will increase to 75-80%. In addition, new devices are expected to be put into operation. The market supply pressure will increase, and the negative feedback on the demand side will increase. The mid-term PTA will enter the accumulation cycle.
Short-term outlook: The Fed’s interest rate hike boots have landed, and the market’s focus has shifted to the supply side; OPEC+ launched a production reduction plan in November, and the actual production reduction is expected to be around 1 million barrels per day; The turmoil has also increased the geo-risk premium. Short-term crude oil shocks are on the strong side, and cost support has strengthened.
The 1.2 million-ton plant of Xinjiang Zhongtai Kunyu New Materials has raised the burden to 90%, and the 350,000-ton plant of Yizheng Chemical Fiber is also planned to be restarted next week. The follow-up maintenance of large plants is relatively small, and the operating rate of PTA may gradually increase; subject to limited terminal orders, the industry It is difficult to release the inventory pressure in the middle and lower reaches of the chain, the stocking of raw materials is not active, the polyester end production reduction and maintenance plans have increased, the negative feedback on the demand end continues, and the fundamental drive is insufficient. The plate rotates up, and the short-term is only treated with a repairing rebound.
2. It is recommended to be cautious in the short-term, and turn to short-term thinking in the medium term.
Sina Statement: This news is reproduced from Sina’s cooperative media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, and does not mean agreeing with its views or confirming its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP