On October 31, the Red Star Capital Bureau noted that according to the data of the official account of “Liquor Prices Today”, the prices of various Moutai liquors have fallen across the board recently.
The original box price of 53 Degree Feitian (2021) has dropped from 3,750 yuan on October 26 to the latest 3,550 yuan. In 2021, San Fei has dropped to 2,700 yuan. The original box price and bulk fly price of other years also fell across the board in the past two trading days. It is worth mentioning that the boutique Moutai and Chinese Zodiac wines have fallen particularly sharply. Since September, the price of Moutai has fluctuated violently. There had been a rebound in the previous period, but most of the time it was mainly down.
What is the reason for this round of Maotai liquor prices falling across the board? The industry generally believes that it has something to do with the news that Moutai will be allowed to be sold in full boxes in the near future.
Moutai cancels “unboxing order”
Some dealers claim to include “Flying Moutai”
Just this week, news broke that Moutai would cancel the 296-day “unboxing order” policy, which caused heated discussions in the liquor circle.
On October 25, the Red Star Capital Bureau asked the Kweichow Moutai Securities Department to verify the matter, but the other party stated that it was not clear. Subsequently, the Red Star Capital Bureau called dealers across Moutai. Some dealers stated that they had received a notice to cancel the “unpacking order” and had not yet been implemented; some dealers reported that they had not received relevant notices.
A Moutai dealer in Shanghai told the Red Star Capital Bureau that some Moutai products in 2021 have cancelled the unboxing order, including the Chinese zodiac wine series. However, the distributor also said that the selling prices of original boxes and loose bottles have basically not changed.
It is worth noting that some dealers said that the types of cancellation of the “unpacking order” also include Feitian Moutai. A Moutai dealer in Beijing told the Red Star Capital Bureau: “The cancellation of the unboxing order refers to Feitian Moutai, but the wine that is not unboxed has not yet arrived, and it is expected that it will arrive in the near future.” Another Moutai dealer in Beijing also Hold the same statement.
The Red Star Capital Bureau learned from the above two dealers in Beijing that the non-unpacking Feitian Moutai, such as the 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai and the 53-degree 500ml boutique Moutai in 2020, are currently sold at 3900 yuan/bottle for the original terminal- Between 4200 yuan/bottle.
In addition, some Moutai dealers in Shanghai, Chengdu and other places said that they have not received a notice to cancel the “unpacking order.” Some people familiar with the matter said that Moutai’s policy of canceling the “de-boxing order” may not have been fully implemented, and the timing of policy transmission in different regions is different.
Plot reversal
After the “Unboxing Order”, the Flying Moutai rose instead of falling
Prices are now down after the cancellation
Moutai’s “unboxing order” began in January 2021. At that time, on the eve of the Spring Festival, Moutai increased its efforts to control prices and stabilize the market and launched the “unboxing order.” Previously, Moutai said that the “unboxing order” was to control prices and stabilize the market. In addition to unboxing sales, Moutai also introduced the cancellation of online “rush-buying” thresholds, announcing that all Moutai liquors that can be sold in 2020 will be put on the market, and the inventory will be cleared.
The Moutai Sales Company stipulates: “From January 1, 2021, the Moutai specialty store system will unpack and sell 80% of Feitian Moutai every month at a price of 1499. Manufacturers will visit the store from time to time to check the unboxing and sales. The number of boxes, if it is found that the number of boxes is not up to the standard, the winery will impose corresponding penalties on the dealers.” Half a month later, Moutai increased the proportion of unpacking from 80% to 100%.
What is surprising is that after the deboxing order was implemented, the price of Moutai did not fall but rose, and the whole box of Feitian Moutai became a “scarce item”. According to media reports, the cartons of Moutai became a new hot spot for hype. During the Spring Festival in 2021 , There are channels for selling Moutai cartons. In 2020, the price of a Moutai cartons will reach 500 yuan, and the price of ordinary cartons of the same specification will be only 3 yuan.
On the contrary, the news that the “de-boxing order” policy may be cancelled has triggered a wave of Maotai liquor prices. The original box price of 53 Degree Feitian (2021) has dropped from 3,750 yuan on October 26 to 3,550 yuan on October 30. The retail price of Bulk Flight in 2021 has dropped to 2,700 yuan, and the market recovery price has dropped to 2,450 yuan. The original box prices and bulk prices of other years also fell across the board. It is worth mentioning that the fine Maotai, the Year of the Ox Zodiac, etc. have fallen particularly sharply. The Jing Mao fell 100 yuan in a single day, and the Ox Zodiac fell 200 yuan in a single day. The species once soared to more than 7000 yuan during the year and is now reported at 4,200 yuan. , A huge drop.
So, where will the price of Moutai fall? According to industry analysis, you can refer to the situation in 2012-2013. That year, the new Moutai announced the price of 600 yuan, and then it has risen to a maximum of 2,000 yuan, which only took less than a year; the old Maotai in the 1980s had the highest price of about 30,000 yuan. Later, due to the plasticizer incident, the price of old Maotai fell to only about 8,000 yuan, and no one cared about it, and the price of new Maotai also fell sharply.
It is worth noting that at the previous shareholders’ meeting, Ding Xiongjun, chairman of Kweichow Moutai, stated that the reform of the marketing price system must be reformed. The direction of the reform should be based on the principle of the market. The brand price system strives to return Moutai to its commodity attributes.
Is the stock price affected?
On the evening of October 29, the reports of the 19 A-share liquor companies for the third quarter of 2021 were all released.In terms of revenue, 17 of the 18 listed liquor companies have achieved a year-on-year increase in revenue, accounting for more than 90% of all listed liquor companies.
Among them, Kweichow Moutai’s revenue reached 74.642 billion yuan, and its net profit was 32.766 billion yuan. The growth rates accounted for 11.05% and 10.17% respectively, maintaining a double-digit growth rate. At the same time, Kweichow Moutai continues to be “dominant”, and its revenue exceeds the sum of Wuliangye and Yanghe (002304.SZ), which ranks second and third in revenue.
According to the analysis of Yinhe Securities, the company’s total wine sales revenue in the first to third quarters of 2021 was 27.235, 21.775 and 25.522 billion yuan, an increase of 11.66, 11.55, and 9.85% year-on-year. Among them, Moutai achieved sales revenue of 245.92, 18.357, and 22.043 billion yuan, an increase of 10.66, 7.74, and 5.55% year-on-year; the series of wine achieved sales revenue of 26.43, 3.418, and 3.479 billion yuan, an increase of 21.86, 37.71, and 48.07% year-on-year.
While the growth rate of Moutai’s revenue has slowed down slightly, the series of wines continued to accelerate. In the first three quarters, the series of wines accounted for 12.80% of the overall sales of alcoholic beverages, an increase of 2.37 PECTs compared to the same period in 20 years. It is particularly worth mentioning that in the third quarter, the company’s direct sales and wholesale agents achieved sales revenue of 5.181 billion and 20.341 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year growth rate of 57.93 and 1.94%, accounting for 20.30 and 79.70% of total distribution revenue; direct sales channels accounted for overall revenue. Compared with the 14.12% increase in the 2020 third quarter report, the rate of increase was 6.18 PCT. The market price has fallen, but it will not affect the company’s performance.
Red Star News Comprehensive Report Yang ChengReturn to Sohu to see more
Editor:
Disclaimer: The opinions of this article only represent the author himself. Sohu is an information publishing platform. Sohu only provides information storage space services.
.