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Original title: Natural gas off-season is not short, experts say there are three reasons for price increases
Our reporter Xu Yiming
The off-season is not short. This is a true portrayal of the recent natural gas prices. Natural gas has become the “price-raising king” in the bulk commodity sector in the recent period. As of press time, the price of natural gas futures on the New York Stock Exchange has reached 3.837 US dollars per million British fevers, a record high in the past three years.
In the domestic market, the National Bureau of Statistics released the market price monitoring of important means of production in the national circulation field in early August 2021, showing that liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose 10.2% month-on-month to 5,402.5 yuan/ton. The reporter found that the comprehensive price of LNG in 2020 will be around 2500 yuan/ton, which will stimulate a substantial increase in market demand. In 2021, the international LNG price will rise sharply, which will drive up the price of domestic LNG.
Sun Xiyu, an analyst in the petrochemical industry of Guotai Junan Securities, analyzed the reasons for the increase in natural gas prices from three aspects: First, the carbon neutral target promotes the shift of demand for coal-fired power generation to natural gas power generation. At the same time, in extreme weather conditions, renewable energy power generation Instability may further boost natural gas consumption in the short-term; secondly, if oil and gas companies join carbon-neutral LNG trading, the green premium will raise the price center in the long-term; finally, as the global temperature rises, the intensity and frequency of high-temperature weather are both The increase has greatly boosted the demand for power generation and refrigeration through natural gas.
On August 21, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Department of the National Energy Administration and other departments issued the “China Natural Gas Development Report (2021)”, which showed that natural gas price fluctuations have increased significantly, and the domestic natural gas market development opportunities and challenges coexist in the second half of the year. Based on the preliminary judgment of the market situation in the first half of the year, my country’s natural gas consumption in 2021 is expected to reach 365 billion cubic meters to 370 billion cubic meters. Excluding the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, compared with the base of natural gas consumption in 2019, the average annual growth rate in 2020 and 2021 is 9%-10%, which is within a reasonable range of medium and high growth.
Independent economist Wang Chikun told the Securities Daily reporter that rising natural gas prices can increase business performance. However, the natural gas industry involves the national economy and people’s livelihood and needs to be priced under the guidance of national policies. Reference can be made to “international natural gas prices + fixed ratios.”
Qi Haishen, president of Beijing Teyi Sunshine New Energy, said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that under the “dual carbon” goal, natural gas consumption demand will gradually increase. As the country vigorously promotes the use of clean gas energy, the consumption of civil gas and industrial gas will show an increasing trend year by year, and the development space and potential of the industry are worth looking forward to.
As natural gas serves as a bridge for the transition from fossil energy to clean energy, the industry is facing development opportunities while also facing some challenges. CITIC Futures Research Report pointed out that natural gas power generation has the advantages of flexible operation, fast ramp rate, short start and stop time, and excellent regulation performance. It can become a solution to the safe operation of power systems under the goal of carbon neutrality. However, expensive natural gas import costs and insufficient autonomy of gas turbine core technologies are two major challenges facing China’s natural gas power generation.
According to the “China Natural Gas Development Report (2021)”, the next step is to make full use of the domestic and international markets, stick to the domestic market, continue to increase the level of domestic gas field production and supply, and enhance diversified import capabilities. At the same time, we should guide the whole society to increase energy conservation awareness, actively advocate gas conservation, promote orderly gas consumption during peak periods, and take multiple measures to ensure the stable supply of natural gas in my country, and contribute to the smooth operation of the global natural gas market.
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Editor in charge: Zhao Siyuan
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