2022 opening yearBankThe stock has performed extremely well, and it has risen against the trend many times in the “depressed” market at the beginning of the year.Multiple listingsBankreturn to mothernet profitIt has reached a record high in recent years, and it has drivenBankThe plate welcomes a good start.
Public offering investment researchers believe that the recent good performance of bank stocks is mainly due to the resonance of multiple factors such as stable growth, real estate risk mitigation, and market style switching. This year, there is a lot of room for the valuation and position repair of the banking sector. Based on good macro expectations, the trend of the banking sector closely related to economic growth is still worth looking forward to.
Multi-factor resonance drives the strength of the plate
Since 2022, bank stocks have finally recovered, achieving a multi-day rise against the trend. The Wind Bank Index rose 3.1% in the first nine trading days of 2022 through Jan. 14.
Wanjia FundfundAssistant Manager Liu Linfeng concluded that the recent good performance of bank stocks is mainly due to the resonance of several factors, namely stable growth (inflection point in social financing growth), real estate risk mitigation and style switching (increased preference for low valuations).
Bosera FundJin Shengzhe, deputy general manager of the industry research department and Jin manager, further analyzed that there are two main reasons for the recent strong performance of bank stocks. The first is that after the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2021 mentioned stable growth, everyone responded to the clue of stable growth. Therefore, for sectors that are biased towards economic cycles, market expectations are being revised and improved. As the most important barometer of the entire economy, the performance of banks is also supported to a certain extent.
“Second, since the beginning of 2022, the entire U.S. Treasuryinterest rateThe upward trend and the adjustment of the growth sector have made the sector with relatively stable operations such as banks attract more attention from the market, and recently more banks have issuedperformancepre-incrementedannouncement, the growth rate is very good, so it has received more attention and favor from the capital market. ” Kim Seung-chul said.
For the reasons for the strong performance of bank stocks in the beginning of the year, the strategy of Yongying FundanalystDai Qing expressed a similar view. He believes that, first of all, under the circumstance of relatively great downward pressure on the economy, the focus of policy is shifting to steady growth, and the expected improvement in bank asset quality is driving valuation repair. He also mentioned that the recent A-share style switch is also relatively obvious, and “steady growth” has become the main line of the market in stages, attracting continuous inflow of funds. At the same time, some banks have successively issued their 2021 performance reports, most of which are better than market expectations, becoming another catalyst for the rise of bank stocks.
Judging from the 2021 annual performance reports recently disclosed by many banks, the 2021 annual performance is significantly better than the 2021 third quarter report, not onlyOperating incomeThe growth rate was stable, the profit growth rate increased significantly, the non-performing loan situation also improved, and the provision coverage ratio was improved.includeBank of Jiangsu、Industrial BankThe net profit attributable to the parent company of many banks, including these, has hit a record high in recent years.
Liu Linfeng also said that recently, many banks have released performance reports, and the overall profit growth rate has improved. First, the growth rate has increased compared with the first three quarters. An important signal behind it is that the binding force of supervision on profits has weakened. Second, the two-year compound growth rate is also stable and improving.
“If we exclude the change in the base due to profit transfer in 2020, we observe the profit growth rate of the compound caliber for two years, and the conclusion is the same as maintaining an upward trend. It reflects that the bank’s endogenous profitability is indeed recovering.” Liu Linfeng said.
Actively deploy the banking sector in the first quarter
In the opinion of the respondents, the current bank stock valuations and positions are at a low level, and the performance in the first quarter is still worth looking forward to.
Warburg SilverETF Fund manager Hu Jie expressed optimism about the current investment value of bank stocks.She analyzed that the banking sector has low valuations, highDividendCharacteristics. According to the latest data from Wind Information, the bank’s PB is currently only 0.63, which is at the lowest absolute valuation in the past 10 years and is in the historical bottom area; the current dividend yield of the banking sector is about 4.7, which is a high in the past three years. Taken together, it is a high-quality asset with relatively high cost performance.
“Furthermore, the RRR cut has been implemented, and the policy signal is more positive. It is expected that the aggregate policies such as RRR cuts and interest rate cuts can still be expected by the first half of next year; from the perspective of asset risk, ‘housing, not speculating’ is still the keynote. , but the marginal formulation is somewhat moderate, such as supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and the real estate credit risk has declined. Finally, from past experience, the probability of bank stocks performing relatively well in the fourth quarter It is relatively large, and the attention of institutional funds to the banking sector has increased significantly, and the valuation switch at the end of the year can be expected.” Hu Jie said.
Jin Shengzhe, deputy general manager of Bosera Fund Industry Research Department and Jin manager, believes that the fundamentals of bank stocks are now growing steadily, and in the process of gradual revision and fundamental improvement, the overall valuation is also at a low level. Looking forward to the first quarter, he is more optimistic about the investment opportunities in this sector, because the market is expected to be revised continuously with the steady growth of the market, and at the same time, he is looking for new economic growth points, such as the entry of residents’ wealth into the market.
Wanjia Fund Manager Assistant Liu Linfeng also analyzed from the perspective of valuation. The valuation of the banking sector has basically reflected pessimistic expectations. At present, the PB valuation of the bank index is only 0.63 times, which is in the historical bottom range, superimposed on the suppression of the credit risk of the real estate industry in the early stage. , so the first quarter can be actively deployed.
State Sea Franklin FundFirst of all, in terms of investment, my country’s fiscal deficit rate will be about 1% as of October 2021, which is about 2% behind the 3% set at the beginning of 2021. This part of the fiscal funds can be reserved for this year. Second, in terms of consumption, this year’s consumption stimulus policy is worth looking forward to. Last year, the market generally believed that the economy was a K-shaped recovery. With the promotion of common prosperity, there may be stimulus and subsidies for the consumption of low- and middle-income groups this year, so this year’s investment And consumption is expected to recover further. Third, the current real estate industry is basically in a “frozen” state, and there may be corrections in policy this year. Based on the above reasons, the trend of the banking sector this year is worth looking forward to.
The main logic of bank stocks has changed
Last year, the profit level of the banking sector was basically in line with market expectations, but the trend was still relatively general. Dai Qing, a strategy analyst at Yongying Fund, said that compared with last year, some important supporting factors for bank stocks have changed this year, and multiple positive factors have supported bank stocks.
First, the policy of stabilizing growth has become clearer, real estate concerns have eased, and banks are more optimistic about the quality of bank assets; second, from the perspective of banks that have released performance reports so far, after the impact of the epidemic, bank profits are returning to a steady growth track, and high-quality banks’ The net profit potential will be released; finally, the switch of market style will help the performance of bank stocks. Bank valuations and positions are low, and there is more room for repair.
Considering that the previous market expectations were too pessimistic, Dai Qing believes that there is a lot of room for valuation and position repair, and it is expected that bank stocks may have good investment opportunities.
Jin Shengzhe bluntly said, “The logic of bank stocks this year runs through the beta level of the entire bank stocks, that is, in terms of economic expectations, we have stronger confidence in the stabilization of the entire economy this year, so there should be some opportunities for the performance of bank stocks this year. The second thread running through bank stocks, the larger long-term clue is the alpha clue, that is, wealth management. On this issue, we are still optimistic about those banks with wealth management capabilities.”
“From a relatively short-term perspective,” Jin Shengzhe went on to say that a major change in the operation of banks this year is the carbon emission reduction support tool launched by the central bank.The second incremental change comes from some fine-tuning of real estate policies, such as real estate mortgage loans, development loans andM&ALoans, in fact, have undergone a relatively clear change in the attitude of supervision, focusing on maintaining the healthy development of the entire real estate market.
Liu LinfengcongcurrencyIn terms of policy analysis, this year will change from loose money to loose credit, and the market has expectations for loose credit. In terms of infrastructure, the National Standing Committee on January 10 proposed to “targeted expansion of final consumption and effective investment”, and clearly stated that “strive to create more physical workload in the first quarter.”Discounted billsinterest rateA straight rebound from 0% to the level in the second quarter of 2021,creditProjects were delivered quickly.
Guohai Franklin Fund believes that the most fundamental reason for the general performance of bank stocks last year is that the market is more worried about domestic economic growth. The second reason is that the market sentiment is overly pessimistic due to the debt problems of individual real estate companies. Investors worry about whether more bad debts will be involved and whether the potential bad debt rate of banks will increase in the future.
Based on good macro expectations, Guohai Franklin Fund is still optimistic about the banking sector this year. As exports continued to exceed expectations last year, many policies have yet to exert force. With the implementation of policies such as common prosperity, technological monopoly, and double reduction, this year’s policy space is very sufficient, and fiscal efforts will play a role in stabilizing growth. This year’s economic growth quality and The data are worth looking forward to.
Focus on two main investment lines
When it comes to the sub-sectors of the banking sector that are optimistic, the interviewed public funders generally said that they should focus on the investment value brought by wealth management and technology empowerment, as well as the valuation restoration opportunities of regional banks.
Jin Shengzhe believes that the most important indicator for observing the fundamentals of a bank’s investment value is the ROE level. Generally speaking, an enterprise has the ability to maintain or improve ROE. The first is through retail business or wealth management; the second is for some regional banks to dig deep into the characteristics of their own regional economy and regional customers, especially in some economic relative Developed areas can accompany the vigorous development of enterprises and earn profits.
“However, the risk that needs to be vigilant is that in the entire economic fluctuation, there will be problems with the balance sheet of banks in terms of credit issuance, which may have been reflected in the level of ROE of banks in the past, so we recommend choosing those that have proved in the past. It is a high-quality bank with relatively clear operating characteristics,” he said.
Liu Linfeng is also optimistic about the valuation repair opportunities of selected excellent targets and the growth of regional banks. From the current Q2-Q3 of this year, it can be expected that the bank’s valuation repair, economic bottoming and cycle restart will bring about the trend of the sector. Specifically, he bluntly optimistic about three subdivisions, one is the bank stocks suppressed by the real estate chain valuation. Two outstanding regional growth bank stocks. Three good start credits were put into sound bank stocks.
Dai Qing said that on the basis of stable asset quality, he pays more attention to the future growth of banks, including the investment value brought by wealth management and technology empowerment, which is worthy of attention; in addition, he also pays attention to the development of high-quality regional banks. Valuation Repair Opportunities. In terms of rhythm, pay attention to the “steady growth” policy signals released by important meetings and the periodic market opportunities brought by economic data.
Talking about the specific risks affecting the investment value of banks, Dai Qing analyzed, “It may include the following three points. First, if the economic growth rate falls below expectations, there is a risk of deterioration in the asset quality of the banking industry; second, if the risks in the real estate industry further spread, It may impact the quality of banks’ assets and increase investors’ concerns about the risk exposure of the real estate industry; finally, if the rate cut is larger than expected, it may continue to compress bank deposit and loan spreads, and the pressure on bank profitability will also increase.”
(Article source: China Fund News)
(Original title: New high net profit! Bank stocks soared, public funds look at it like this!)
(Responsible editor: 3)
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