After Ningde Times (SZ: 300750) fell below 500 yuan on February 10, the stock price of Ningde Times continued to fall on February 11. As of the close, Ningde Times reported 489.99 yuan per share, and it fell 17.32% in the first week of the Year of the Tiger, and the market value evaporated 239.184 billion yuan.
At the time of the sharp decline, the market also appeared “singing empty”. On February 11, Wei Zhichao of Capital Securities issued a view that the trend of Kweichow Moutai in 2021 has a strong similarity with the trend of Ningde era in 2022. Referring to the trend of Kweichow Moutai, “Ningde era may not have bottomed out in the short term. Selling on rallies is the best option.”
Only in August 2021, Capital Securities also issued a research report, saying that it maintained the buy rating of Ningde Times, when the stock price of Ningde Times was still at 530 yuan per share.
In just half a year, the same agency has issued diametrically opposed views. In the past year, there are not a few brokerages who are optimistic about the Ningde era. Flush data shows that the target price of the brokerage for CATL is between 544 yuan and 905.8 yuan.
Today, the stock price of CATL has fallen below the lowest target price of the brokerage. At the time of the slump, the Ningde era has no lack of supporters. According to the latest research report released by UBS, a series of studies have shown that CATL has ushered in a buying opportunity with a target price of 700 yuan.
But funds are choosing to vote with their feet. Flush data shows that the cumulative net outflow of Hong Kong capital in the last 20 days of CATL was 3.865 billion yuan. According to reports, in the fourth quarter of 2021, although CATL is still a heavy fund holding stock, the market value of its holdings has decreased by 60 billion yuan.
According to public information, CATL is the world‘s leading R&D and manufacturing company for lithium-ion batteries. Its main products include power battery systems, energy storage systems and lithium battery materials.
On June 11, 2018, Ningde Times landed on the Growth Enterprise Market at an issue price of 25.14 yuan. After listing, the daily limit has been increased for 7 consecutive days. On June 21, 2018, the closing price of Ningde Times was 70.54 yuan per share.
Data shows that from 2018 to 2021, the stock price of CATL rose by 193.6%, 44.17%, 230%, and 67.47%, respectively.
Among them, on May 31, 2021, the closing price of Ningde Times was 434.10 yuan per share, and the total market value exceeded 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1.01 trillion yuan, making it the first enterprise on the GEM to exceed 1 trillion yuan.
On December 3, 2021, the highest price of CATL was 692 yuan per share, the highest value since its listing. However, since then, the stock price of Ningde era has retreated from a high level and continued to decline. In December 2021, its stock price fell by 13.53%.
Entering the Year of the Tiger, the stock price of CATL continued to fall. On February 10, its lowest price was 499.89 yuan per share, falling below 500 yuan per share. On February 11, its stock price was as low as 489 yuan per share, hitting a new low since October 2021.
As of the close, Ningde Times reported 489.99 yuan per share, down 5.43%, and has fallen 17.32% this week; the static price-earnings ratio reached 204.55.
Based on the closing price of 592.60 yuan per share in the Year of the Ox, the market value of the Ningde era in the Year of the Tiger has evaporated by 239.184 billion yuan.
Brokerages disagree
While the stock price of Ningde Times plummeted, some brokerages suggested “selling on rallies”.
Wei Zhichao, chief economist of Capital Securities, said that the trend of Kweichow Moutai in 2021 is quite similar to the trend of Ningde era in 2022. Referring to the trend of Kweichow Moutai, “Ningde era may not have bottomed out in the short term. High shipments are preferred”; and said “through fitting, we judge that the adjustment of the Ningde era may not be over, and there may still be room for a 20% decline in the future.”
This view has sparked heated discussions, and the conference call “How much can CATL fall? A Quantitative Analysis Perspective” originally scheduled to be held at 20 o’clock this evening was also temporarily cancelled.
It is understood that on August 26, 2021, Capital Securities issued a research report to maintain the buy rating of CATL.
At that time, the latest closing price of Ningde Times was 530.2 yuan per share, and Capital Securities issued a half-point report. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent of Ningde Times in 2021/2022/2023 will be 116.08/194.72/26.088 billion yuan, closing on August 25, 2021. Price calculation PE is 106 times/63 times/47 times, maintaining the company’s buy rating.
On the afternoon of January 27, Ningde Times released its 2021 annual forecast showing that in 2021, Ningde Times is expected to achieve a net profit of 14 billion to 16.5 billion yuan attributable to the parent, a year-on-year increase of 150.75% to 195.52%; it is expected to achieve a non-net profit of 12 billion yuan. -14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 181.38% -228.28%.
This is also the best transcript since the listing of CATL, far exceeding the expected net profit of 11.608 billion yuan attributable to the parent of Capital Securities.
Half a year later, although the performance of the Ningde era is outstanding, the attitude of Capital Securities towards the Ningde era has changed.
In contrast, there are still some brokers who are optimistic about the CATL era.
On February 11, UBS released a research report saying that a series of studies have shown that CATL has ushered in a buying opportunity with a target price of 700 yuan. In terms of performance, UBS believes that the 2021 financial report of CATL is 30% to 40% higher than the consensus, and there is still a lot of room for growth in 2022.
Flush data shows that within one month, 7 institutions gave CATL a “buy” rating.
The straight flush shows that the research report predicts that the highest price is 905.80 yuan, and the predicted lowest price is 544.00 yuan. As of the close, Ningde Times reported 489.99 yuan per share, lower than the lowest price predicted by the research report.
Funds reduced their holdings by the most in the fourth quarter
On the one hand, institutions are optimistic, and on the other hand, funds are fleeing.
Flush data shows that the cumulative net outflow of Hong Kong capital in the Ningde era was 1.279 billion yuan in the last 5 days, and the cumulative net outflow of Hong Kong capital in the last 20 days was 3.865 billion yuan.
▲The picture is taken from a straight flush
According to “China Fund News”, as of the end of last year, the top ten stocks of public funds were: Kweichow Moutai, Ningde Times, Wuliangye, LONGi, Luzhou Laojiao, WuXi AppTec, China Merchants Bank, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luxshare Precision , Yanghe shares.
In the fourth quarter, the fund’s largest market value reduction was the lithium battery Ningde era, reaching 60 billion yuan; followed by Kweichow Moutai and WuXi AppTec, with a market value of 55.558 billion yuan and 48.788 billion yuan respectively.
Flush data shows that in the fourth quarter of 2021, E Fund’s GEM trading open-end index securities investment fund held 3,732,100 shares of CATL, a reduction of 361,000 shares compared with the third quarter; China-Europe Times Pioneer Equity Sponsored Securities Investment Fund A held CATL has 1,998,400 shares, a reduction of 1,469,500 shares from the third quarter.
▲The picture is taken from a straight flush
14 billion-16.5 billion yuan net profit props up a trillion-dollar market value
Behind the trillion-dollar Ningde era is a net profit of 14 billion to 16.5 billion.
The forecast shows that in 2021, CATL is expected to achieve a net profit of 14 billion yuan to 16.5 billion yuan, an increase of 150.75%-195.52% year-on-year; .
Ningde Times said that the main reason for the increase in performance in 2021 compared with the same period of the previous year is that the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle and energy storage market in 2021 will increase, which will drive the growth of battery sales; the company has made progress in market development, new production capacity has been released, and production and sales have increased accordingly. ; The company strengthens cost control and reduces the proportion of cost to revenue.
In the field of power batteries, CATL is the well-deserved king.
Recently, SNEResearch released the 2021 global power battery installed capacity rankings. The installed capacity of CATL in 2021 will reach 96.7GWh, a year-on-year increase of 167.13% compared with 2020, and its market share will reach 32.6%, ranking first in the world.
The market shares of LG New Energy and Panasonic, the main rivals of the CATL, have declined to varying degrees.
Among them, LG New Energy’s market share in 2021 will drop from 23.40% to 20.30%, and Panasonic’s market share in 2021 will drop from 18.40% to 12.20%. The gap between CATL and LG New Energy and Panasonic will be widened.
However, the above-mentioned companies are still eyeing the power battery market. It is understood that LG New Energy was listed on the Korea Stock Exchange at the end of January, and Quan Yingshou, CEO of LG New Energy, once said that “it will surpass CATL in global market share and become the world‘s No. 1″.
How long can the “one-dominant” pattern in the Ningde era last? What is certain is that some car companies have begun to seek unexpected battery suppliers in the CATL era.
In December 2021, it was reported that Xiaopeng Motors decided to reduce the supply share of CATL and introduce a new battery supplier, AVIC Lithium Battery. Xiaopeng Motors responded that “the parts supply chain for vehicle production needs to be continuously improved in order to better ensure supply and production, and more accurately predict the delivery cycle.”
It is also reported that the semi-solid battery with a capacity of 150kWh announced by NIO in early 2021 is provided by Beijing Weilan New Energy. There has been no official response from either side.
In terms of short-term news, it was recently reported on the Internet that “Ningde Times is seeking help from professional institutions in the United States to inquire about the possibility of being sanctioned by the United States.”
But this did not eliminate the negative sentiment in the market. On February 8, the share price of Ningde Times fell 6.66%, and now its share price continues to decline. As of the close on February 11, Ningde Times reported 489.99 yuan per share, down 5.43%.Return to Sohu, see more