The cross-border air raids carried out this week by Pakistan and fromIran against the militants present on the territories of both countries mark an unprecedented flare-up at a time when the region is already a powder keg of tensions.
Nuclear-armed Pakistan and its western neighbor are both battling simmering insurgencies in troubled regions along their porous 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) border.
Air raids between Pakistan and Iran
Tehran declared it had struck the “Iranian terrorist group” Jaish al-Adl with drones and missiles in Pakistan late Tuesday evening, thus prompting Islamabad to recall its ambassador and remove his Iranian counterpart. “Iran’s unprovoked and flagrant violation of Pakistani sovereignty last night is a violation of international law and the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter,” the spokeswoman said. Mumtaz Zahra Baloch in a statement.
In response, Pakistan’s military said it struck ethnic Pakistani Baloch separatists in the early hours of Thursday in Iran, where Islamabad said militants thrive in “ungoverned spaces.” “This morning, Pakistan undertook a series of highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes against terrorist hideouts in Iran’s Siestan-o-Baluchistan province,” Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said, adding that “several terrorists were killed.”
The overall toll is 11 dead – mostly women and children – and both sides accuse the other of failing to address the militancy spilling over their borders.
On the face of it, Pakistan’s airstrike on Iran dramatically escalated tensions with a barrage of rocket and drone strikes around dawn on Thursday. But “the result of the new situation is that the two countries are apparently and symbolically equal,” he declared Antoine Levesques, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “The risks of further escalation are slight and will perhaps diminish with time,” she added.
Sanam Vakildirector of the Chatham House think tank, said Pakistan’s response “seems quite moderate,” mirroring Iran’s claim that Pakistan targeted only national militant groups operating from foreign bases. Alireza Mahamatydeputy governor of Sistan-Baluchistan province, told Iranian state TV that “all those killed were Pakistani nationals.”
The crisis in the Middle East
Cross-border attacks add to the many crisis in the Middle East since Israel launched a war against Iran’s ally Hamas in Gaza in response to Hamas’ unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7.
I ribelli huthi Iranian-backed forces in Yemen have attacked commercial vessels in the Red Sea, and Israel has regularly exchanged cross-border fire with the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah.
Iran also launched missile strikes against “espionage headquarters” and “terrorist” targets in Syria and Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region, where it said it hit Israel’s intelligence headquarters.
Tehran expects tensions with Israel to “increase”, with the war between Israel and Hamas set to drag on, he said Sanam Vakil. “He’s putting up these red lines to show Israel directly what it will respond to and what it won’t,” she added. “Iran wants to assert its position,” he said Wasi, academician of the University of Karachi. “The attacks are a warning to the international community rather than to Pakistan.”
International reactions
The Secretary General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres expressed concern after Iran and Pakistan exchanged airstrikes on each other’s territory. “The Secretary-General is deeply concerned by the recent exchange of military attacks between Iran and Pakistan, which reportedly caused casualties on both sides,” he said Stephane Dujarric, his spokesperson. “It urges both countries to exercise maximum restraint to avoid a further escalation of tensions.”
The White House also urged Iran and Pakistan to avoid an escalation of tensions. “We are monitoring the situation very, very closely. We do not want to see an escalation, clearly in South and Central Asia, and we are in contact with our Pakistani counterparts, as you would expect,” the National Security Council spokesperson told reporters John Kirby.
The European Union, which expressed “grave concern” about “the spiral of violence in the Middle East and beyond”, following tensions between Pakistan and Iran. “These attacks, particularly in Pakistan, Iraq and Iran, are a source of deep concern because they violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries concerned and have a destabilizing effect on the region,” he said Peter Stanospokesperson for EU diplomacy chief Josep Borrell.
Finally, Russia also urged Islamabad and Tehran to defuse tensions. “We observe with concern the escalation of the situation in the border area between Iran and Pakistan, which has intensified in recent days. We call on the parties to exercise maximum restraint and resolve emerging issues exclusively through political and diplomatic means,” the Foreign Ministry said Sergey Lavrov.
Home front in Pakistan
In exactly three weeks the elections in Pakistanin a delayed vote already tainted by accusations of pre-election fraud by the powerful military.
According to analysts, the most popular politician in the country, Imran Khanis in prison and cannot run after having led a defiant campaign against the military, while the three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif he is the army’s favorite candidate.
The sharp increase in attacks along the border with Afghanistan and the deterioration of relations with the Taliban government have also caused problems for the establishment.
“The political boost that the Pakistani army could receive from this retaliation against Iran should not be overlooked,” he said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington. “The repression of Imran Khan and his party has fueled public anger against the army. The retaliatory attack could produce a rallying effect around the flag, even if temporary.”
© Agence France-Presse