Day of sales for European stock exchanges. On Piazza Affari, the Ftse Mib ended with a loss of 1.65% at 33,393 points, with sales in particular on Stellantis (-3%), Fineco (-2.5%) and Saipem (-2.4%). Amplifon (+0.9%), Leonardo (+0.2%) and Campari (+0.1%) bucked the trend.
Attention remains predominantly focused on geopolitical tensions and monetary policy. The president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, confirmed that in the absence of shocks, rates could soon be cut, while the number one of the Fed, Jerome Powell, will intervene later.
Today the IMF released updated estimates on growth and inflation, forecasting a global GDP increase of 3.2% in 2024 and 2025. As regards Italy, the World Economic Outlook indicates a GDP of +0.7% both for this year and next. For the eurozone, the Fund expects inflation to fall to 2.4% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, while in the US it expects 2.9% this year and 2% next year .
From the macro agenda came data in line with expectations on US industrial production (+0.4% in March) and the German Zew index, rising to 42.9 points. Previously, China’s GDP beat estimates, but weak March data on industrial production and retail sales raised concerns about the economic recovery. UK employment data showed an above-expected rise in the unemployment rate for February to 4.2%, while wage growth remained stable at 5.6%, ahead of inflation (scheduled Tomorrow).
Meanwhile, the season of US quarterly reports continues with Morgan Stanley’s accounts beating expectations in terms of profits (+14.5% first quarter profit at $3.4 billion).
Yields still rising on bonds, with the ten-year Treasury at 4.64% and the two-year at 4.95%. The BTP-Bund spread widened to 144 basis points, with the Italian ten-year bond at 3.93% and the Bund at 2.49%. At the end of the week the S&P agency will decide on Italy’s rating.
Among raw materials, Brent oil fluctuates around $90 a barrel and gold rises to $2,385 an ounce. On Forex, the euro/dollar exchange rate remains in the 1.063 area and the dollar/yen appreciates to 154.5 in the wake of the strength of the greenback.