Polls, how the numbers between Pd and M5s change after the election of Elly Schlein as dem secretary
After the vote for Elly in the primaries of professor Domenico De Masiwe just lacked the assist of Beppe Grillo to the new secretary of the Democratic Party to give greater strength to the thesis of those who argue that the the new dem course will inevitably end up stealing consensus from the Movement. An analysis that is not wrong especially looking at the audience of those who vote. But this reasoning is this also valid for the abstentionist party, which remains the first in Italy?
Affaritaliani talked about it with Livio Gigliuto, vice president of the Piepoli Institute, precisely to try to understand if the scenario would remain the same and, therefore, if faced with to a hypothetical unitary proposal branded Pd-M5s, the Nazarene would always and only remain to take advantage of it, to the detriment of the pentastellati. The Nazarene would above all gain from not voting, according to the pollster, but “an alliance would probably favor both”: “The Democratic Party would go back to acquiring that band of the electorate it lost, but which was its own. On the other hand, we have already seen how Schlein performs very well compared to the former dem voters, as well as being able to recover votes from other left-wing parties and, in part, precisely from the M5s”.
But then one wonders what benefit Conte would derive from a future alliance. “It’s simple – reasons Gigliuto -: it would continue to consolidate itself into a centre-left market”. A little bit, perhaps. Especially if, losing support, he ends up on the sidelines of a hypothetical coalition. And, in fact, Gigliuto sees some risk: “It has been proven that the Movement gathers support when it is alone. His the base mobilizes if it perceives it as an alternative and anti-system. At a time when the M5s was experienced by its voters as part of a government scheme (with the Draghi executive, for example), in fact, it lost votes, as he regained some in his solitary run, albeit unwanted, to politics”. Ergo? According to the pollster, “paradoxically the only hope for the Five Stars is that the Democratic Party changes and that, therefore, the grillina base may perceive him as less moderate and governing than what has happened up to now ”.
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