Industry news
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Canadian canola futures continued to fall sharply on Wednesday, with the benchmark down around 4.38% as bulls took profits.
As of the close, the July period closed down about C$50.20 to close at C$951.90 per ton; the November period closed down about C$41.80 to close at C$912.10 per ton; the January period closed down about C$42.40 per ton. To receive 918 Canadian dollars / ton.
Summary of views
rapeseed meal
The planting work in the Canadian prairie area is basically completed. The abundant rainfall in most areas is beneficial to the yield of rapeseed, and the export demand has slowed down, which has put pressure on the price of rapeseed. And the excellent rate of US soybeans is higher than that of the same period last year, which reduces the probability of market speculation and limits the price of US soybeans. In addition, the sharp increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve has increased the risk of economic recession, and the expectation of global liquidity crunch has increased, resulting in a sharp increase in the short-term market sentiment recently. Domestically, the purchase price of rapeseed opened higher this year, which was significantly higher than the same period in previous years, which supported the cost of rapeseed meal.However, rapeseed has entered the market peak, and the output of rapeseed is expected to increase, while the downstream delivery of rapeseed is not active, the inventory is on the rise, and domesticsoybeanShort-term supply is sufficient, and the operating rate of oil plants is acceptable.soybean mealInventories continued to increase, and protein meal pressures increased. From the perspective of the disk, rapeseed meal has started to make up for the decline, and there is still a weak expectation in the short term, and it is treated with a bearish thinking.
vegetable oil
The planting work in the Canadian prairie area is basically completed. The abundant rainfall in most areas is beneficial to the yield of rapeseed, and the export demand has slowed down, which has put pressure on the price of rapeseed.At the same time, Indonesia accelerated exports, while MalaysiapalmOil exports have slowed down significantly, and production has recovered, and panic selling in the palm oil market has put pressure on oils and fats. In addition, the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates by 75 basis points, and proposed in the latest monetary policy report that price stability may be maintained unconditionally, triggering the market’s pessimistic expectations of economic recession, and the crude oil market fell sharply, dragging down the oil market. In the domestic market, the demand for rapeseed oil was significantly weaker than the same period in previous years, and the market of domestic rapeseed led to a certain pressure on the price of rapeseed oil. However, this year, the domestic purchase price of new seeds is high, and the operating rate of oil plants remains at the lowest level. The output of rapeseed oil is limited, while the downstream delivery is acceptable, and the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas continues to decline. From the perspective of the disk, under the pessimistic atmosphere, the price of rapeseed oil has plummeted by nearly 2,000 points, and it is expected to be still in a state of adjustment.
(Article source: Ritar Futures)
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