Real estate, the rate hike will not weigh on the residential market
(Teleborsa) – Despite the adverse scenario that pervaded all of 2022, the performance of the home market has exceeded the best expectations with a record number of sales in the last ten years. The rate hike will not compromise the housing market in the near future, rather the market is embarking on a new real estate cycle. This is what emerges from the report House vs Rate. The beginning and the end of a new real estate cycle?redacted by the Gabetti Studies office.
Looking at the full year 2022, there has been a sales growth of +5% compared to 2021 (the year in which a growth of +34% was recorded compared to 2020, the year of the pandemic), for a total of 784,486 transactions (Revenue Agency data). Numbers that show – the study points out – how a macroeconomic scenario dominated by the growth of inflation and interest rates has not affected the intentions of those who want to buy or sell a house.
In particular, 181,766 transactions were recorded in the first quarter (+12% compared to the same period of the previous year), 219,082 in the second quarter (+9%), 175,267 in the third quarter (+1.6%) and 208,371 in the fourth quarter (-2.1%), showing an ever smaller variation, until becoming negative in the last quarter of the year.
Potential buyers stay at the window
It is – highlights the Gabetti Studies Office – a momentary decline: precautionary measures implemented by those who will not give up the purchase of a house in the medium term. Although in fact the search for a house still remains among the prerogatives of Italians, the generalized increase in consumer prices and mortgage rates prompted potential buyers to adopt a “wait and see” attitude in the last quarter of the year.
“2022 ended in the best of expectations, also in light of the macroeconomic scenario that has emerged. However, in the first part of 2023, the residential market will see a period of stability which will kick off a new real estate cycle which, in the second half of the year, will be favored by the decrease in rates” he commented Marco Speretta, general manager of the Gabetti Group.
In the first semester 2022 all the macro-areas recorded a positive change in sales: +3.1% in the North, +5.0% in the Center and +8.0% in the South. Overall, the capital cities show a change of +5.5%, while non-capital cities by +4.3%. Looking at major Italian cities by populationa total of 130,440 transactions were recorded in 2022, +5.1% compared to 2021.
At the same time, the same provinces recorded a change of +2.9% compared to 2021. All cities have marked a positive trend: in particular Bari recorded a growth of +25.3% compared to 2021, followed by Palermo (+11.3), Milan (+6.1%), Turin (+5.9%), Bologna (+3 .4%), Genoa (+3.0%), Rome (+3.0%), Naples (+2.6%), Padua (+2.2%) and Florence (+2.1%).
In the big cities prices up by 2.7%
According to the surveys of real estate prices operated within the franchising network of the Gabetti Group, in 2022, in the large cities, there was a change in prices of around +2.7%, compared to 2021. Considering the half-yearly change, in the second half of 2022 all the large cities recorded increasing values. The cities that recorded the best increase were Milan (which went from +2.2% in the first half to +6.9% in the second) followed by Florence (which went from +1.7% to +3 .2%) and Palermo (which went from +0.5% to +1.0%). On an annual level, prices grew the most in Milan (+9.1%), followed by Florence (+4.9%), Bari (+3.2%) and Bologna (+2.3%). Sales times and discounts at the closing of deals tend to be stable, settling on an average of 4.2 months, and a 10.5% discount.
As for i home purchase loans, the increase in interest rates affected the trend in demand, leading, in the first three months of 2022, to total disbursements to households of 42.4 billion euro, -7% compared to Q1-Q3 2021 ( Bank of Italy data). From the survey of the affiliates of the Gabetti Group, it emerges even more markedly, going from 45% to 77% of the interviewees, that the increase in mortgage rates remains the reason that will contribute most to the possible decrease in sales in the coming months.
“Mortgage applications for home purchases recorded a positive trend in the first half of the year, while in the second half, in the light of the Euribor increase, we recorded a limited contraction. During 2023, as a result of the ECB’s monetary policy, we expect the 3-month Euribor to stabilize at around 3.5%, if the inflation target of 2% were to be reached in 2024, there should be a rate drop below the 3% threshold” he affirms Antonio Ferrara, CEO of Monety.
Purchases concentrated on the first home
The demand for housing, compared to the first half of 2022, was on the increase for 38% and stable for 37% of the agencies. The percentage of affiliates who instead saw a decrease in demand went from 42% in the first half to 52% in the second half of the year. This is the scenario traced by Sturvey to the affiliates of the Gabetti Groupa questionnaire of 20 questions administered to the network of affiliated agencies of the Gabetti Group, taking into consideration the second semester (July/December) of 2022.
Purchases are still more concentrated on first house (74%), on the other hand, those for the replacement of a first home decreased (from 28% of the first to 22% in the second half) which is mainly used to expand the spaces, with an extra room (77%) or with outdoor space (62 %). The dimensional cut plus traded it is always the three-room apartment (58%) followed by the four-room apartments (33%).
(Photo: Gino Crescoli / Pixabay)